This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Picks Today: San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Expert MLB Picks and Props for Wednesday, March 20
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San Diego Padres 
vs. Los Angeles Dodgers 
The hype on the Dodgers is all the rage as they signed Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the free-agent market. The Padres meanwhile traded away Juan Soto and let Blake Snell go via free agency to the Giants. The perception is that the Padres are a much worse team and the Dodgers are a much better team. That might be the case when you look at 162 games, but we are looking at both teams with their number one starting pitchers going in a neutral park (Seoul, Korea).
I do not see both pitchers going more than 5 innings in the first game of the season and we get a huge run total at 8.5 or 9.0 (BetMGM), so I will look at the first five only before it gets turned over to the bullpens. This game could be 2-1 or 2-2 after 5, but then really see the offenses explode.
This is the largest underdog odds that Yu Darvish has been in his career at +170 (previous high was +167). In the three games in which he was +150 or higher, two were against the Dodgers and the scores were 4-1, 1-2, and 2-1.
The tax on the Dodgers is going to be huge this year so be very careful and pick your spots wisely. The total is running between 8.5-9.0 runs and I normally would not look to take +1.5 runs with that high of a total, but again this is very juiced toward the Dodgers. Getting a strong starting pitcher at +1.5 runs and even money is a nice spot and does not happen very often.
The hitting prop odds are juiced to the gills on Ohtani, but while combing thru his options, the plus money on over 0.5 walks looked very intriguing especially with him against a right-handed pitcher. He is going to be sandwiched between Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman in the lineup hitting second instead of third which I think would mean he would draw less walks. He had a 15 percent walk rate in 2023 and the same against right-handers, but it went up to 21.4 percent in the second half.
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MLB Best Bets for Padres vs. Dodgers
- Padres +1.5 runs for 0.5 unit (FanDuel +102)
- Dodgers/Padres UNDER 4.5 runs F5 for 0.5 unit (BetMGM -110)
- NRFI for 0.5 unit (DraftKings +100)
- Shohei Ohtani OVER 0.5 walks for 0.5 unit (BetMGM +105)
