This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Can The Minnesota Twins Sweep the Rangers?
The Minnesota Twins are 71-65, just six games over 0.500, and lead the AL Central Division by five games over the Cleveland Guardians with 26 games remaining on their schedule. The Twins are the only team in the Central to have outscored their opponents (52 runs) this season while three other teams in the Central have been outscored by more than 112 runs this season. The Twins are 17-12 averaging a -128 money line wager and have earned a 6.1% ROI since August 1 and barring a monumental collapse will be in the AL Playoffs.
The Twins took to the road to face the AL West Texas Rangers, who led the division for most of the season, but have been caught by the reigning world champion Houston Astros and the scorching hot Seattle Mariners, who have taken the lead by one game over the Astros and by two games over the Rangers. Currently, the Tampa Bay Rays old the top wild-card berth followed by the Astros, and the third and final berth is occupied by the Rangers. The Toronto Blue Jays are only 1.5 games behind the Rangers, who must find a way to win more games than they lose down the stretch.
The Twins have won the first two games of this 3-game set against the Rangers by scores of 5-1 and 9-7 in extra innings and will look for the sweep Sunday afternoon. The Twins were priced as 135 underdogs on the money line facing starting pitcher Max Scherzer Friday and as 175 underdogs on the money line facing left-hander Jordan Montgomery. They are currently priced again as an underdog of 120 on the money line facing Jon Gray, who is 8-7 in 4 starts with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.199 WHIP including 120 strikeouts spanning 137 2/3 innings of work. The Twins will have Kenta Maeda on the hill who is 3-7 in 16 starts with a 4.69 ERA and a 1.208 WHIP including 91 strikeouts over 78 2/3 innings of work.
The Twins are not a solid offensive team, but their bullpen is one of the best in the AL. For the season, the unit has posted a 3.99 ERA and a 1.254 WHIP including 463 strikeouts over 460 innings of work. Over the past five games, they have posted a strong 2.94 ERA and a 0.950 WHIP including 27 strikeouts over 33 2/3 innings of work. However, the Twins used nine pitchers in Saturday's extra-inning win. Emilio Pagan blew his fifth save in five opportunities throwing 24 pitches is likely not to be available Sunday. Griffin Jax appeared in both games of this series and is not available Sunday unless to face only a couple of batters in key situations.
The Rangers used seven pitchers including Aroldis Chapman, who took the loss allowing three runs, two unearned on two hits and 19 pitches. His status is largely uncertain for Sunday.
The Situational Trends and Angles to Know
Teams that are priced as underdogs and that used nine or more pitchers in their previous upset win and are facing the same opponent are just 10-19 averaging a 143-underdog bet and a terrible -21% ROI. If the game is the last game of a series, these teams have gone 4-10 averaging a 140-underdog bet and a money-losing 33% ROI.
Betting on home teams in the last game of a series that are coming off an upset loss in which they and their foe used 15 or more pitchers have produced a 35-22 record averaging a -140 wager and earning a 15% ROI. I am betting on the Texas Rangers using the money line, currently priced as -140 favorites at BetMGM, on Sunday.
Looking Ahead to the Twins Upcoming Schedule
Next up for the Twins is a huge 3-game showdown visiting the division-rival Cleveland Guardians. Taking two of three games would give the Twins at least a six-game lead over the Guardians with just 22 games left on the schedule. However, a losing sweep to the Guardians would reduce their lead to two or three games.
In the first game, Monday, the Twins will have Pablo Lopez on the hill, who is 9-7 in 27 starts with a 3.72 ERA and a 1.160 WHIP including 196 strikeouts spanning 164 2/3 innings of work. In nine starts against divisional foes, he is 4-2 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.039 WHIP including 73 strikeouts over 59 2/3 innings of work. His last start was at home against the Guardians in which he recorded a quality start of six innings of work allowing three earned runs but took the loss in a 4-2 game. He will post another quality start Monday and in this case, the Twins offense will score enough runs against Guardians starter Lucas Giolito, who has lost five of his last six starts.
I like the Twins using the money line over the Guardians, on Monday.
