This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Betting Picks Today: Expert Bets and Props for Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Tuesday, June 13
Season: 33-52 -36.51 units
Prior Article: 1-2 -1.62 units
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Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers
When looking at one game, I typically will pick the biggest mismatch and look to correlate multiple plays on the game.
The Dodgers come into this game on a bad stretch going 3-7 last 10 and just 8-12 over their last 20. But if you look at their recent home games they are 14-4 in their last 18. They are 20-10 overall at home, while just 17-19 on the road. They are also 28-18 vs. right-handed pitchers vs. 9-11 against left-handers.
The White Sox have hit the skids on offense again and they have significant home/road splits (.252/.310/.402 BA/OBA/SLG vs. .221/.281/.371).
The Dodgers are 3rd in runs per game at home F5 at 3.43, and 5th overall at 3.05. Knowing the Dodgers offense is stronger at home, I will look at their better hitters at the top of the lineup for total bases props. Freddie Freeman has great splits at home vs. right-handed pitchers with 2.32 total bases per game. Mookie Betts and Will Smith also have very strong total base per game numbers at home vs. right-handed pitching with 2.56 and 2.65 respectively.
Lance Lynn has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball with a 6.72 ERA, 1.56 WHIP in 72.1 innings (13 starts). His splits vs. left-handed hitters are significant as he is allowing a .362 average against them vs. .214 against right-handed hitters. But if you really dig into his splits against left-handed hitters, he is getting destroyed with a 3.5 HR/9, 7.50 FIP, and 2.06 WHIP
Tony Gonsolin has seen his numbers drop off from 2022, where he had a 0.87 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9, 8.2 K/9 and in 2023 he is at 0.98 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9, and 6.6 K/9. Even with the drop off, I am going all in on the Dodgers bats in this spot for tonight's game.
MLB Best Bets for White Sox at Dodgers
- Dodgers OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -115)
- Freddie Freeman OVER 1.5 total bases for 1.2 unit (DraftKings -120)
- Mookie Betts OVER 1.5 total bases for 0.8 unit (DraftKings +125)
- Will Smith OVER 1.5 total bases for 0.75 unit (DraftKings +140)
- Freddie Freeman to hit a HR for 0.25 unit (DraftKings +425)
- Max Muncy to hit a HR for 0.33 unit (DraftKings +300)