This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
The final weekend of the MLB regular season starts with a bang. There are 12 games on the DFS docket Friday night. First pitch is at 7:05 p.m. ET. Here are my lineup recommendations.
Pitching
Jose Berrios, TOR vs. MIA ($9,000): At least there are some things in this world we can rely on. For the sixth season in a row, excluding 2020, Berrios is going to make 32 starts. He takes the mound when it's his turn in the rotation, and he goes six-or-seven innings more than just about anybody. Oh, and he has an 1.51 ERA over his last eight starts. The Marlins seem primed to finish 28th in runs scored, sneaking past the Rays, but they also seem primed to finish with a sub-.300 OBP as a team.
Sean Manaea, NYM at MIL ($8,700): After a couple rainouts you may have heard about, Manaea is primed to start Friday in Milwaukee. That's pretty nice for him, all things considered. In his first season as a Met, Manaea has a 2.77 ERA on the road. Also, he's a lefty, and that lines up well with the splits put up by Milwaukee's lineup.
Jacob deGrom, TEX at LAA ($8,400): The only question is if the Rangers will let deGrom pitch beyond the fourth inning. After his latest lengthy injury absence, deGrom has an 1.35 ERA, 1.4 BB/9 rate, and 12.2 K/9 rate in his two starts. Also, he's pitched 6.2 innings total. The Angels are terrible. A whole offseason looms. All deGrom needs is a chance to go five innings and I think he'll make DFS players happy at this salary.
Top Targets
After falling just short of 30 homers and 30 doubles in his Rookie of the Year season, Gunnar Henderson ($6,300) breezed past both of those numbers in 2024. He also doubled his stolen base numbers, going from 10 to 21. Pablo Lopez is proof that an elite K/BB rate can only take you so far. He still has a 4.11 ERA, and lefties have hit .267 against him.
Since 2022, Triston Casas ($4,300) has an .848 OPS versus righties. He also has an .890 OPS at home, and this season he's slugged .567 at Fenway Park. That's good, because Taj Bradley's sophomore campaign has turned out just to be a slightly-better version of his rookie season. He has a big fastball, he gets a lot of strikeouts, but he's allowed 1.50 home runs per nine innings because when you square up a baseball traveling really fast well, you know, physics. Bradley has a 4.77 ERA on the road as well.
Bargain Bats
All things considered, Wyatt Langford ($4,200) had a fine rookie season given this was his age-22 campaign. The righty has hit .253 and has 14 homers and 18 stolen bases. Langford has struggled with his fellow righties, but he has an .865 OPS versus lefties. Reid Detmers has allowed seven runs in each of his last two starts, and right handers have batted .281 against him.
He has a chance to join the list of hitters with double-digit triples, but Mike Yastrzemski ($3,500) also has 18 homers, all of them coming against righties. On top of that, he has an .819 OPS at home. Friday he will face the so-very-hittable Miles Mikolas, who has a 5.35 ERA. Lefties have hit .275 against him in 2024, and that's after hitting .285 against him in 2023.
Stacks to Consider
Dodgers at Rockies (Cal Quantrill): Teoscar Hernandez ($5,700), Max Muncy ($5,600), Gavin Lux ($4,800)
The Dodgers get a chance to enjoy a series at Coors Field before they head to the postseason and try to win another World Series. Quantrill is finishing his first season with Colorado. A sub-2.00 K/BB rate and a 23.1 line-drive percentage won't cut it at Coors. On top of that, while Quantrill was very good at avoiding home runs for most of his career, unsurprisingly his HR/9 rate is up to 1.30 in 2024. The questions about the Dodgers are about pitching healthy, not the lineup, so I had plenty of stack choices.
Hernandez has a .993 OPS over the last three weeks. While Quantrill is a righty, he's actually allowed right-handed hitters to bat .276 against him since 2022. Muncy missed a lot of the season with injury, but he has an 1.002 OPS over the last three weeks. He's slugged .512 against righties, and I am not worried about his .711 OPS on the road given which ballpark this game is being hosted in. Once I saw the words "Freddie Freeman" and "walking boot," I knew I was going to need to pivot from my original plans. Instead of taking Shohei Ohtani ($8,000) and his massive salary, I landed on Lux. His salary is much lower, and the boost of Coors Field gives him more of a boost than Ohtani, who is pretty much maxed out all the time. Lux has a .728 OPS versus righties and a .717 OPS on the road. You can also slot him in at second base, a position with fewer good options.
Yankees vs. Pirates (Jared Jones): Juan Soto ($6,400), Giancarlo Stanton ($4,300), Austin Wells ($4,100)
Paul Skenes had a remarkable rookie season, but Jones fell off bad after his own hot start. Pirates fans may not have noticed, because on the year he has a 2.87 ERA at home but a 5.96 ERA on the road. Since returning from injury, Jones has not been able to get into gear at all. In five starts he has a 6.15 ERA and has allowed six homers. Now, he has to visit Yankee Stadium.
For the first time, Soto has hit 40 home runs. For the seventh time (in seven seasons) he will finish with an OBP over .400. The southpaw also has an 1.009 OPS versus right-handed pitchers. Stanton has hit 27 home runs even though he's only played in 112 games. He's slugged .557 at home, and he's also slugged .504 against his fellow righties. Wells is a good choice for the catcher in your lineup. In his career he has a .779 OPS against right handers, and the southpaw has a .342 OBP at home in 2024. For his position, that's quite good.
