Fret not. It may only be Wednesday, but Labor Day weekend is right around the corner. Plus, before we get to the holiday, we still have MLB action to keep us entertained, and MLB DFS contests to play. There are 10 games on the docket for DFS purposes, with the first pitch at 7:07 p.m. EDT. Here are my lineup recommendations.
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Pitching
Framber Valdez, HOU vs. COL ($10,400): Valdez has hit a rough patch, but on the year he still has a 3.32 ERA. On top of that, at home he has an 1.85 ERA at home, so issues in Houston have largely been nonexistent. The Rockies have a sub-.300 OBP, and the fact they are 29th in runs scored given their home park is truly remarkable.
Sonny Gray, STL vs. PIT ($9,400): While Gray's 4.33 ERA does not impress, his 3.26 FIP and 6.44 K/BB tell a different story. Additionally, he has a 3.76 ERA at home. The Pirates will probably finish last in OPS and are all but guaranteed to finish last in runs scored, so they should be able to help Gray improve his ERA on the season.
Ryan Bergert, KAN at CWS ($8,500): Bergert seems like a fine addition to the Royals' rotation. The rookie pitched well enough for the Padres both in the rotation and out of the bullpen. However, in four starts with the Royals he's posted a 2.82 ERA. It looks like the White Sox will finish 26th in runs scored. That's decidedly better than last season's woeful results, but still quite poor.
Top Targets
It speaks to the makeup of the Brewers that Christian Yelich ($3,500) is their best power hitter but also puts balls on the ground as much as anybody. And yet, he's hit 26 home runs on the year to go with 15 stolen bases. The southpaw also has a .952 OPS over the last three weeks. Ryne Nelson doesn't allow many home runs… at home. On the road he has a 5.01 ERA and 1.6 HR/9 rate.
In addition to having 14 homers and 19 stolen bases in only 103 games, Jeremy Pena ($3,400) has posted a .308 batting average. The shortstop turned a corner against his fellow righties this year, which really improved his profile. Pena also has a .937 OPS at home this season. Sure, Chase Dollander has a 3.95 ERA on the road, compared to a 9.88 ERA at home. Even so, that isn't exactly fantastic, and righties have hit .287 against the rookie.
Bargain Bats
Well, the power threshold of Jung Hoo Lee ($3,100) seems clear. He has only seven home runs, but he's also picked up 10 triples and 29 doubles through 125 games. Lee has stolen 10 bases, nine of them coming against righties. Colin Rea has a 3.96 ERA, but a 4.60 FIP. On top of that, this year lefties have hit .290 against him.
It's been your classic "top prospect figuring it out" season from Matt Shaw ($2,900). The 23-year-old has a sub-.300 OBP but has also tallied 11 home runs and 15 stolen bases in just 98 games. He's going to be quite good once he makes some adjustments, and this year Shaw has slugged .463 against lefties and .464 on the road. Carson Whisenhunt is having bigger issues adjusting to MLB hitters. He has a 6.87 FIP through four starts, and he's allowed righties to hit .295 against him.
Stacks to Consider
Royals at White Sox (Aaron Civale): Bobby Witt ($3,800), Vinnie Pasquantino ($3,200), Kyle Isbel ($2,300)
Though the Royals have one of MLB's worst offenses, they do have a few impressive bats, two of them in this stack. This matchup is worth targeting as well. Across his time with the Brewers and White Sox, Civale has a 5.02 ERA. It's not like there has been a change in the right direction since his move, as the veteran has a 5.05 ERA with Chicago. Hey, there's a reason why the White Sox are Civale's fourth team in three seasons. Now, onto the Kansas City stack.
Witt has been locked in, as he has a .996 OPS over the last three weeks. He now has 19 homers and 34 stolen bases on the year, not to mention 41 doubles. Witt is as fast as any MLB player, so when he makes good contact and gets on base, he can really do a lot of damage. Pasquantino was quietly impressive last year, but he's been even better this year. He has 28 homers and is up to 92 RBI. As a lefty, he's done most of his damage against righties like Civale. Pasquantino has slugged .508 in those matchups. Isbel isn't on the same level as his teammates in this stack, but he has hit .271 over the last three weeks and hit .276 against righties on the campaign. Isbel lacks over-the-fence power, but he does have four triples and 15 doubles through 118 contests.
Blue Jays vs. Twins (Zebby Matthews): Daulton Varsho ($3,700), Vladimir Guerrero ($3,400), Bo Bichette ($3,000)
Matthews has been better than last year, but it's important to know that he had a 6.69 ERA and 2.63 HR/9 rate in 2024. This year, "better" means that he has a 5.30 ERA and 1.54 HR/9 rate. In his career lefties have hit .299 against him and righties have hit .297 against him, so it's not a big deal that the Blue Jays' best hitters are right-handed.
Varsho is a lefty, and he has been all or nothing in that he has a .286 OBP and has slugged .589. He can't hit southpaws at all, but he clearly has power, and he's actually slugged a whopping .669 against righties. Recently back from a brief hamstring issue, Guerrero has 21 homers and 30 doubles on the year. He's also posted a .391 OBP, right in line with his .396 OBP last year. Guerrero has also slugged .504 at home. Bichette has certainly hit well, in that he leads MLB in total hits. That's helped him post a .306 average with 16 homers and 40 doubles. Bichette has been so-so on the road, but he has a .908 OPS at home.
