It's time to tackle another weekend of MLB action! There are no dog days around these parts! Friday's DFS slate is a robust 13 games. That means a lot of options, which means my recommendations can help you pare things down for your decisions. First pitch is at 7:05 p.m. ET. Here are those recommendations I promised.
Pitching
Blake Snell, LAD at SDP ($9,300): Snell has looked excellent since his return from a months-long injury absence. He's made three starts and has an 1.69 ERA and 11.8 K/9 rate. That includes six shutout innings against these same Padres. San Diego, in addition to playing in a spacious, pitcher-friendly park, is in the bottom 10 in runs scored.
Casey Mize, DET vs. KAN ($8,300): It's been a bit of a roller coaster for my beloved Tigers as of late, and that has been true for Mize as well. All in all, though, he has a 3.63 ERA and a 3.48 ERA at home. The Tigers have a chance to ice the Royals' playoff chances in this series, and the Royals' offense has been struggling to keep the team afloat all year. Kansas City is fighting the Rockies to try to avoid being 29th in runs scored.
Luis Morales, ATH at SEA ($6,500): This is a roll of the dice to save some salary. Morales started his age-22 season in Double-A, and he made his MLB debut earlier this month. Through three appearances he has an 1.86 ERA. His first two outings were only a couple of innings, but in his last outing he went five innings and only allowed one run against the Angels. The Mariners have a better offense than the Angels, but the Mariners have a pitcher-friendly ballpark. If you are willing to take a gamble to spend your salary elsewhere, consider Morales.
Top Targets
Any second baseman with the potential to hit 30 homers over the course of a full season is worthy of attention. Brandon Lowe ($5,300) has popped 24 home runs through 105 games, so 30 is possible if he can stay on the field. The more he faces righties the better, as he has an .888 OPS in those matchups. Miles Mikolas only has a 5.87 K/9 rate. On top of that, he has a road ERA of 6.47 and a 2.4 HR/9 rate as well.
Even with a fluke injury and some struggles returning from that, Freddie Freeman ($5,000) appears primed to hit over .300 again with more than 30 doubles and, perhaps, more than 20 homers. He's locked in, as the southpaw has a .980 OPS over the last three weeks. Yu Darvish, who is a righty, has only made eight started this season. Over those eight starts, though, he has a 5.97 ERA.
Bargain Bats
The intense allergy to walks that Lenyn Sosa ($3,800) seems to have is certainly limiting, but he knows how to wield his bat. He's hit .271 with 17 home runs and 16 doubles in 110 games. With 32 barrels on the season and only 15.8 percent of his hits qualifying as "soft," the White Sox have been able to move Sosa from second base to first base (though he remains DFS eligible at both). Friday he will face Zebby Matthews, who has a career 5.78 ERA and also has allowed righties to hit .297 against him in his career as well.
While it is commonplace for a lefty hitter to perform well against righties but struggle against southpaws, sometimes right-handed hitters have the inverse situation going on. Dansby Swanson ($3,700) is such a hitter, as he has a .663 OPS against righties and an .832 OPS against lefties. That is an issue in the big picture, but when it comes to DFS sometimes it works out. For the third season in a row southpaw Tyler Anderson is going to have a sub-2.00 K/BB rate, and this year his FIP is up to a hefty 5.64.
Stacks to Consider
Blue Jays at Marlins (Ryan Gusto): Daulton Varsho ($4,700), Addison Barger ($4,500), Alejandro Kirk ($3,300)
The Marlins have a couple good, young pitchers. Gusto isn't one of them…yet. The 26-year-old rookie began the season with the Astros, where he posted a 4.92 ERA. In his first start as a Marlin the righty allowed three runs in six innings to Atlanta. Last year at Triple-A, when he was in his age-25 season, he had a 3.70 ERA. I'm not sure Gusto will be a viable MLB starter, and he definitely has an issue with lefties. Southpaws have hit .306 against Gusto, and have hit 10 of the 13 home runs he's allowed. Thus, I have two lefties in this stack.
Varsho has been all-or-nothing, but he's slugged .571 with 13 home runs in 40 games. He's been bolstered by a .959 OPS versus right-handed pitchers. Barger has been cold recently, but he's hit .257 with 18 homers and 26 doubles in 104 outings. He's slugged .510 against righties, and 17 of those homers have come against right-handed pitchers. Kirk is a righty, but the Blue Jays are limited in lefty options and you need a catcher for your lineup. I feel like Kirk is worth a shot to slot into that position. He's a catcher with a .293 average, a .789 OPS on the road and a .774 OPS against his fellow righties. That'll work for me.
Brewers vs. Giants (Carson Whisenhunt): William Contreras ($5,000), Andrew Vaughn ($3,700), Caleb Durbin ($3,500)
Whisenhunt may only be 24, but his three MLB starts have been disastrous. He has a 7.43 FIP, an 1.71 K/BB rate and a 3.14 HR/9 rate. Yes, that is only three starts, but Whisenhunt has made 44 starts at the Triple-A level. He has a 4.90 ERA at that level. Now, the southpaw has managed to handle lefties, but righties have hit .314 against him. Thus, I have three right-handed Brewers.
Contreras is another catcher, one with a higher salary, but he's arguably Milwaukee's best right-handed hitter. He has 13 homers, 22 doubles and six stolen bases, and Contreras has an .897 OPS over the last three weeks. Vaughn was on his way to being a bust, but leaving the White Sox for the Brewers has, perhaps, salvaged his career. He has a .964 OPS in 36 games with the Brew Crew, and on the season he has an .820 OPS versus lefties. Durbin, who has seven home runs and 11 stolen bases, doesn't have a ton of power. However, he has a .360 OBP versus lefties which will work Friday.
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