It's another Thursday with a lighter schedule that is also afternoon heavy. In fact, the DFS slate is set up for afternoon baseball. There are five games included, and the first pitch is at 1:05 p.m. ET. Here are my MLB DFS lineup recommendations for Thursday.
Pitching
Garrett Crochet, BOS at BAL ($12,000): After a breakthrough campaign in 2024, Crochet is gunning for the Cy Young in 2025. He has a 2.38 ERA, a 4.93 K/BB rate and a 0.81 HR/9 rate. The Orioles are just below average in runs scored, but they are also lefty-heavy, and Crochet is a southpaw who will wipe out most of them.
Miles Mikolas, STL vs. PIT ($5,700): Since Crochet is a high-level pitcher, with a salary to match, I wanted to offer up another option that can save you some salary. Of course, that means an offering related to the matchup. Mikolas has a 3.70 ERA at home, at least, though he has been woeful enough on the road to still give me pause. That being said, the Pirates are last in runs scored and team OPS. Pittsburgh has the worst offense in MLB, so maybe Mikolas can grab you a quality start and a win. That would suffice at this salary.
Top Target
While Jose Altuve has been cold, Jeremy Pena ($5,300) has been more lukewarm, which is sufficient and makes a turnaround easier to envision. Indeed, he's racked up a few multi-hit games as of late. On top of that, Pena has a .946 OPS at home on the campaign. Kyle Freeland has allowed righties to hit .310 against him this year. Also, while he pitches for Colorado, since 2023 he has a road ERA of 5.17, so he's no product of Coors Field.
Bargain Bat
Over the last two weeks Lourdes Gurriel ($4,300) has slugged .617 and hit five home runs. He's had issues with righties the last couple years, but against southpaws he has an .832 OPS since joining the Diamondbacks. Jose Quintana, a lefty, has a 3.32 ERA, but he also has a 4.78 FIP. Additionally, at home he has a 4.31 ERA and 1.9 HR/9 rate.
Stack to Consider
Red Sox at Orioles (Cade Povich): Alex Bregman ($5,200), Trevor Story ($4,700), Ceddanne Rafaela ($3,600)
In his sophomore season, Povich has increased his strikeouts and (slightly) lowered his walks. And yet, as with last year he has a 1.36 HR/9 rate, and his ERA has only dropped from 5.20 to 5.13. Furthermore, his home ERA is actually 6.22, thanks to the fact he's allowed 1.9 homers per nine innings there. Since he's a lefty, and since righties have hit .267 against him in his career, this is an all-righty stack.
Though injuries have cut into Bregman's first season with the Red Sox, he's crushed it when he's played. That includes a .983 OPS against lefties and a .942 OPS on the road. No, Story doesn't produce like he did with the Rockies, but this year he's hit .257 with 21 homers, 22 doubles and 23 stolen bases. Plus, over the last two weeks he has a .906 OPS. Rafaela is a defensive maestro who may never have an OBP over .300, but he can deliver counting stats. He has 15 homers, three triples and 19 stolen bases. At this salary, he's well worth rostering against a lefty as a second baseman (or an outfielder if you prefer).
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