This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
The Rays are good. The Tigers are bad. Pete Alonso has power. Luis Arraez can hit for average. These are things we knew, or expected, for the 2023 season. Well, maybe the Rays are a bit better than anticipated. Have we learned anything new, though? Perhaps, but it's early. What I do know is that there are 12 games on the docket for Friday starting at 7:05 p.m. ET or later. These are my DFS recommendations.
Pitching
Kodai Senga, NYM at OAK ($10,400): Senga's debut in MLB has gone well so far, though his first two starts have been against the Marlins, who have the makings of a poor offense once again. Of course, now he is facing the Athletics, who could be even worse than the Marlins. Oakland Coliseum is also a pitcher-friendly park, so Senga still has the opportunity to really ease into being an MLB pitcher.
Nestor Cortes, NYY vs. MIN ($9,500): Through two starts, Cortes is validating his numbers from 2022 when he had a 2.44 ERA. Even though his strikeouts are down, the lefty has a 2.61 ERA but with a 2.44 FIP. The Twins are off to a slow start offensively, down in the bottom 10 in runs scored to start the campaign. Maybe they miss Arraez setting the table?
Cal Quantrill, CLE at WAS ($8,700): Yes, through two starts – both against Seattle – Quantrill has a 6.52 ERA, but a 4.45 FIP. Last year he was finally a full-time starter, and his 3.38 ERA was totally solid, and that's enough for me when it comes to the Nationals. Washington's offensive numbers are inflated early in the year because of a trip to Coors Field, but in the end I would bet on it finishing near the bottom in runs scored.
Top Targets
Even in what was a "difficult" return from injury in 2022, Ronald Acuna ($6,500) posted a .351 OBP with 15 homers and 29 stolen bases. He's one of the poster boys for base stealing under the new regulations, with six through 13 games. I could see Acuna swiping 40 bags for the first time in his career. Brady Singer is a righty, and it is usually easier to steal on right-handed pitchers. Plus, since 2021, Singer has allowed righties to hit .277 against him.
Off to a strong start again, Shohei Ohtani ($6,100) has slashed .267/.365/.555 over the last three seasons. The lefty also has an .935 OPS versus righties in that time. Tanner Houck has been moved to the rotation, but it isn't going well thus far. He has a 5.11 FIP and lefties have hit .304 against him (in 25 matchups, but even so).
Bargain Bats
Thus far, Eugenio Suarez ($4,300) is hitting .309 but slugging .418. My prediction: Suarez's average drops but his power rises. This is a career .251 hitter who has notched 31 home runs in each of his last two seasons, and once went yard 49 times in a year. The lefty Austin Gomber has let righties hit .272 against him since 2021, and his poor numbers aren't about Coors Field. Since joining the Rockies, Gomber actually has a 6.04 ERA on the road.
Luke Raley ($3,600) has shown some notable power this year. He's slugged .654 and hit three home runs. With a righty on the mound, I can see the southpaw in the field, or possible as the designated hitter. Jose Berrios has seen his career take a nose dive since joining the Blue Jays. He had a 5.23 ERA last season and has an 11.17 ERA through two starts this year.
Stacks to Consider
Mets at Athletics (James Kaprielian): Pete Alonso ($5,400), Brandon Nimmo ($4,000), Jeff McNeil ($3,700)
Kaprielian has a 4.67 FIP in his career, even with pitching his home games in Oakland. In fact, last season the hurler had a 5.09 ERA at home. Lefties have hit .360 against him in 2023, and .255 against him since 2021. Thus, I have two southpaws in my stack.
I mentioned Alonso's power earlier, and it is so formidable I trust it even in a spacious ballpark like the Athletics' stadium. He's slugged .538 in his career and has six home runs through 13 games after slugging 40 homers in 2022. Nimmo has three stolen bases this year, which is intriguing with the new MLB landscape. Last year, he had an .808 OPS versus righties, and also an .898 OPS on the road. McNeil has a .389 OBP, even though he has a .250 average so far. Considering he is a career .306 hitter, I expect that latter number to jump quite a bit.
Guardians at Nationals (Trevor Williams): Jose Ramirez ($5,700), Steven Kwan ($4,300), Josh Naylor ($4,100)
Williams is back to being a starter, which was the role he had back in the day with the Pirates. In his four seasons starting with Pittsburgh, he had a 4.34 ERA. Through two starts with the Nationals in 2023, he has a 4.35 ERA. The more things change, etc. Since 2021, Williams has let lefties hit .289 against him, and the Guardians have a few key lefties, so this is a good matchup for them.
Ramirez is a switch-hitter, but since 2021 he has a .909 OPS versus righties. He has four stolen bases, but no home runs, though I am not worried. Ramirez hit 29 homers last year, after all. Kwan surprised with his throwback rookie campaign. That is to say, he didn't show power, but he hit .298 with a .373 OBP. He actually has a .375 OBP this season, and he's stolen three bases after swiping 19 last season. The time you want Naylor in your lineup is when he is facing a righty on the road. Last year he had an .856 OPS versus right-handed pitchers, and an .854 OPS in away games.
Cardinals vs. Pirates (Johan Oviedo): Nolan Arenado ($5,600), Nolan Gorman ($4,100), Tommy Edman ($4,100)
Oviedo will be facing his former team, a team with which he posted a FIP over 5.00. Back as a starter, the righty may have a 3.18 ERA through two starts, but a 6.32 FIP. I'm not worried about stacking against Oviedo, especially when I can draw from a lineup like the one St. Louis fields.
Arenado has hit at least 30 home runs in every full MLB season since 2015. He's batting .321 to start this season, and is a career .289 hitter you can trust his bat. The lefty Gorman had some issues last year, but managed 14 home runs, all against righties. He has been completely shielded from lefties in 2023, but has four homers already, all against right handers as well. This year, in what is admittedly not a notable sample size, lefties have hit .318 versus Oviedo. Edman only has one stolen base, which is surprising given that he has stolen over 30 bags in each of his last two campaigns. However, he does have a .262 average and a .340 OBP.
