This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Welcome back! Friday sees MLB return from the All-Star break, and we have 14 games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET or later. Now, owing to the time off, the pitching rotations of several teams are somewhat theoretical at the moment, but using RotoWire's probable pitchers tool, I am providing the best assessment possible. Here are my DFS lineup recommendations.
Pitching
Jon Gray, TEX vs. CLE (8,300): Gray has a 3.29 ERA in his second season with the Rangers. Now, he's been better on the road than at home this year, but in his first campaign with Texas it was the inverse, so I'm not reading too much into that. Notably, he has been worse at allowing home runs at home in both campaigns, but that is not a worry with the Guardians. Cleveland is 27th in runs scored largely because it is comfortably last in home runs
Kenta Maeda, MIN at OAK ($7,700): Maeda may have a 5.18 ERA, but he's only made seven starts. He has a 3.46 FIP, and he also has a 2.12 ERA on the road, so his issues have largely been at home. Oakland offers a pitcher-friendly park, and also a pitcher-friendly lineup. The Athletics are thoroughly last in terms of runs scored and team OPS, as paltry an offense as you can find.
Top Targets
Your National League Rookie of the Year to be Corbin Carroll ($6,100) was cold before the break, but on the year he has a .981 OPS against righties and a .968 OPS on the road. Plus, there are his 18 homers and 26 stolen bases. On the one hand, Chris Bassitt's 4.81 FIP is largely based on issues on the road. On the other hand, lefties have hit .290 against the right hander. All in all, I'm good with Carroll in Toronto against Bassitt.
Though he isn't a power hitter, obviously the hit tool of Luis Arraez ($4,900) stands out. He has a .383 average and has flirted with .400 at times. Against righties, though, the Marlin has slugged .481, which is not too shabby. Dean Kremer has a 4.94 FIP, and a lot of that is because he's allowed 1.84 home runs per nine innings. Maybe Arraez isn't likely to go yard, but Kremer has allowed lefties to hit .307 against him.
Bargain Bats
Christian Yelich ($4,600) has hit .284 with 11 homers and 21 stolen bases in a rebound campaign. A big part of that is his .899 OPS against righties. Graham Ashcraft's rookie season was poor (4.89 ERA), but his sophomore campaign has been even worse. The righty has a 7.95 ERA at home.
With a keen eye and real power, Jack Suwinski ($3,800) has a .360 OBP and has hit 19 home runs. Now, the southpaw can't hit lefties all that well, but he has a .942 OPS versus righties. Ross Stripling has been in and out of the rotation, but has a 6.37 ERA and has allowed lefties to hit .328 against him.
Stacks to Consider
Yankees at Rockies (Austin Gomber): Giancarlo Stanton ($5,000), Anthony Rizzo ($4,800), Anthony Volpe ($4,000)
The Yankees get to open the colloquial "second half" of the season at Coors Field. Not only that, they get to face Gomber, who has a career 5.02 ERA. This year he has a 7.84 ERA at home and has allowed 2.2 home runs per nine innings. The Bronx Bombers are in the Mile High City, and this stack will hopefully shake out.
It's been a tough season for Stanton, with injuries playing a big part, but he's hit nine homers in 41 games and has had over 30 home runs in each of his last two seasons. Now, maybe he's not the guy with the career .534 slugging percentage at this point, but at Coors, I'll take a shot on him. Rizzo is a lefty, but since 2021 he actually has a .904 OPS against southpaws. Meanwhile, Gomber has allowed lefties to hit a staggering .370 against him. Volpe is an all-or-nothing rookie. He has a sub-.300 OBP, but 13 homers and 16 stolen bases. Plus, he's slugged .456 against lefties, even with the limited contact he makes.
Atlanta vs. White Sox (Michael Kopech): Matt Olson ($6,000), Sean Murphy ($5,400), Michael Harris ($4,100)
Like a lot of pitchers with big fastballs but a lack of nuance otherwise, Kopech doesn't allow a ton of hits, but the hits he allows do damage. He has a 5.58 FIP and has allowed 1.78 home runs per nine innings, and with the number of walks he's allowed, that means more damage done. Atlanta has the power bats to take advantage of this matchup.
Olson is exceedingly well-suited for this matchup. He has 29 home runs, and that includes an 1.004 OPS against right-handed pitchers. The only concern with Murphy is how often Atlanta lets him rest. When he's played, the catcher has a .999 OPS, including an 1.030 OPS at home. Harris has been up and down this year, and was down again right before the break. However, he has nine homers and 11 stolen bases, including a .790 OPS at home.
Rays at Royals (Alec Marsh): Randy Arozarena ($5,400), Josh Lowe ($5,000), Luke Raley ($4,200)
Marsh started the year with 11 starts at Double-A wherein he posted a 5.32 ERA. And yet, he got the call to the majors, which mostly speaks to the bleak situation in Kansas City, one that rivals what's going on with Oakland (sans the looming relocation). Through two MLB starts, Marsh has a 7.00 ERA, and I see no reason not to believe in the validity of that. Last year in Double-A he had a 7.32 ERA. He doesn't seem to be a good pitcher.
Arozarena could be in for his third 20-20 season in as many campaigns in MLB. He has 16 homers and 10 stolen bases, not to mention a .388 OBP. While he and Marsh are both righties, Arozarena has an .868 OPS versus right handers this year. Lowe, who has 12 homers and 19 stolen bases, is back from dealing with a family matter and ready to pick up where he left off. He has an .821 OPS against righties, as well as an .879 OPS on the road. Raley is on the verge of being yet-another Ray with double digits in homers and stolen bases, as he has 15 of the former and nine of the latter. He sits against lefties, but has a .944 OPS versus righties, who are easier to steal on traditionally as well.
