MLB DFS Picks: DraftKings Plays and Strategy for Monday, July 1

MLB DFS Picks: DraftKings Plays and Strategy for Monday, July 1

This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.

To say this is a small slate would be a drastic understatement. This might be the shortest card of the season, with only three games. What makes it even more frustrating is that all three games start at different times, with the Astros-Blue Jays matchup taking place during the day. That's going to leave us with an abbreviated player pool, but there are still some good DFS contests out there.

Pitching

Hunter Brown, HOU at TOR ($8,500) 

With only six pitchers on this slate, the pickings are slim. I wouldn't even consider any of these arms good options but Brown is the one guy we truly like. The sophomore got off to a slow start, but he's been one of the best pitchers in the American League over the last six weeks. Brown has scored at least 13 DraftKings points in nine straight starts, generating a 2.04 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 10.2 K/9 rate in that span. He's also allowed just one run across his last four starts and shouldn't have any issues against this disappointing Toronto lineup. Not only are the Blue Jays a righty-heavy offense, but they also rank 18th in OPS, 26th in runs scored and 28th in xwOBACON. 

Top Targets

Lane Thomas, WAS (vs. David Peterson) $5,400

Washington has been one of the biggest surprises in the league, and Thomas is one of the most underrated players in the league. Since the start of last season, Thomas has tallied 44 doubles, 36 homers and 37 steals. Only a handful of players have done that, and the numbers look even better when evaluating his splits. Thomas has a .376 on-base percentage (OBP) and a .945 OPS against lefties in that same span. He also comes into this matchup rolling, registering a .341 OBP and .885 OPS since coming off the injured list (IL) a month ago. That won't bode well for Peterson, providing a 4.76 ERA and 1.55 WHIP since 2022. Stacking against Peterson isn't the worst idea. We'd use CJ Abrams ($6,000) and rookie James Wood ($3,500) against him. 

Rhys Hoskins, MIL (vs. Austin Gomber) $4,600

Hoskins has struggled mightily over the last month, but it's amazing to see him below $5,000 against a lackluster lefty in Coors Field. We'll get into that matchup later on, but Hoskins has some of the best splits in baseball. The first baseman has a .393 OBP and .905 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor throughout his career. He's also got a .351 career OBP and .837 OPS. This is the perfect opportunity to bounce back to those career norms. 

Bargain Bats

J.D. Martinez, NYM (vs. MacKenzie Gore) $4,500

Martinez was one of the final signings in the offseason, and it's hard to understand why. This guy has a .286 batting average (AVG), .350 OBP and a .873 OPS throughout his career. He's been even better recently, providing a .368 OBP and .902 OPS across his last 41 games. Martinez is also another guy who's slaughtered southpaws throughout his career, compiling a .378 OBP and .958 OPS against them. MacKenzie Gore has struggled a bit recently, too, totaling a 5.13 ERA and 1.63 WHIP across his last five starts. If you want to stack against the struggling Gore, Pete Alonso ($5,000) Francisco Alvarez ($3,800) and Francisco Lindor ($4,900) have the platoon advantage against the lefty as well. 

Alex Bregman, HOU (vs. Yariel Rodriguez) $4,200

There's no doubt Bregman was horrible through the opening two months, but he's been playing like an All-Star since then. The third baseman has a .289 AVG, .343 OBP and .855 OPS across his last 42 games. He's approaching a .950 OPS over the last month. That's the back of the baseball card we've become accustomed to. That makes the $4,200 price tag tough to justify, especially since he faces a guy like Yariel Rodriguez. The Toronto pitcher has a 5.94 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in what's turning out to be a nightmarish rookie season. Rodriguez might be the worst pitcher on this slate. We'd be happy to include Yordan Alvarez ($5,700), Jose Altuve ($5,300) and Yainer Diaz ($4,100) in an Astros stack. 

Stacks to Consider

Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies (Austin Gomber): Christian Yelich ($6,500), William Contreras ($6,300), Willy Adames ($5,500), Rhys Hoskins ($4,600)

We would use this stack if there were 15 games on this slate, but it's impossible to fade Milwaukee in this spot on a three-game card. The Brewers have been one of the best offenses in baseball, ranking fourth in OBP and seventh in runs scored. That's scary since the Rockies rank last in ERA and WHIP, playing in the most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball. That's why Milwaukee is projected to score a slate-high six runs, facing off with a struggling Austin Gomber. The Rockies lefty has a 9.39 ERA and 1.83 WHIP across his last five starts while posting a 5.67 ERA and 1.44 WHIP at home since 2022. 

Yelich is one of the frontrunners for National League MVP, leading all players on this slate with 10 DraftKings points per game. Contreras has been one of the best catchers in the game, generating a .353 OBP and .792 OPS. He's also got a .422 OBP and .988 OPS against lefties since 2022. We already talked about how Hoskins has similar splits but Adames is another guy with the platoon advantage in his favor. The shortstop has 13 homers and 10 steals, ranked third among shortstops with 8.1 DraftKings points per game. 

Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Bryse Wilson): Ryan McMahon ($5,200), Nolan Jones ($4,800), Charlie Blackmon ($5,000), Ezequiel Tovar ($5,100)

This Rockies-Brewers matchup has the highest total by nearly three runs, and it's a game that needs to be stacked. Colorado is the second-highest projected offense on this slate, forecasted to score over five runs. That's no surprise since Coors Field is the highest-scoring park, and it's not like the Brewers are sending out an ace. Bryse Wilson is taking the mound for Milwaukee, maintaining a 5.40 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over his last six starts. He's also got a 4.89 FIP compared to his 3.89 ERA, so the negative regression could keep flowing in here. 

Colorado can be a tough team to stack, but McMahon has been a sneaky DFS asset. The third baseman is second among third basemen with 7.9 DraftKings points per game, establishing a .343 OBP and .823 OPS at home since 2022. Jones has been terrible, but he had a 20-20 season last year in just 106 games. He also had an OPS above .900 at home and against righties, making him a candidate for a monster week with seven games at home. Blackmon has always gone off in Coors Field, compiling a .913 OPS there since the start of last season. Chuck Nasty also has a .395 OBP and .936 OPS across his last 19 games. Tovar has been the Rockies' best bat, tallying a .298 AVG and .857 OPS since May 12. 

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Joel Bartilotta plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: Joelbartilotta Yahoo: Joelbartilotta.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Joel Bartilotta
Joel has 20 years of Fantasy experience, and can recall riding a young Daunte Culpepper to a championship in the 2003-04 season in his inaugural fantasy year. He covers NBA, NFL, daily fantasy, EPL, and MLB for RotoWire.
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