This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Playoff baseball brings smaller slates for DFS. We're down to two games on most days for the next week or so before regularly slimming down to Showdown contests. Baseball knowledge and context will always be important, but game theory and strategy take on added importance at this time of year. With that in mind, let's jump into Tuesday's pair of National League Division Series (NLDS) games.
Pitchers
Michael King ($8,700) has been the best pitcher from a skills perspective and is the highest-priced pitcher Tuesday. He's also had success against the Dodgers this season. That doesn't guarantee success but he is the best option on paper. It's difficult to make a case for Walker Buehler ($6,200) on paper, but he's likely to have a very low roster rate and offers significant savings.
Aaron Nola ($8,200) is the other standout play from a matchup and skills perspective. Even in the Mets' surge across the last month of the season, they were a mediocre offense. There's more of a case to be made for Sean Manaea ($7,700) than Buehler based on his close to the season as he averaged 20.2 DraftKings points across his last 10 starts.
Overall, King-Nola is the on-paper or chalk combo. Getting at least one of them out is a reasonable risk to take in tournaments. My preference would be to replace King with Buehler.
Top Hitters
Anecdotally, Fernando Tatis Jr. ($5,700) seems to be the type of player to raise his performance in the biggest moments. A very limited sample of numbers backs that up, as he's slugged five homers in 10 postseason games while going 16-for-36 overall. This is shaping up to be a particularly contentious series. Tatis should continue to shine. It helps that he has the best pitching matchup of the day.
Value Bats
Austin Hays ($2,300) won't be hitting high in the Phillies' order, but he's performed well against lefties, both this season and for his career (.341 wOBA, .192 ISO). He stands out as a way to save a significant amount of salary. For those who want to roster both King and Nola, Hays will be a key to making the budget work.
Mets hitters aren't likely to get a lot of attention Tuesday, but there is a viable path using Manaea as a starter and stacking Mets hitters. There are the obvious names in the lineup, but Jesse Winker ($3,100) was a big contributor to the team's surprising win in the Wild Card Round.
Stacks to Consider
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets (Sean Manaea): Kyle Schwarber ($5,500), Trea Turner ($5,400), Bryce Harper ($5,100)
The Padres are the standout stacking option of the day as Buehler has the weakest statistical profile among the four pitchers. However, the Phillies have a potent lineup that could go overlooked with a lefty on the mound and both Schwarber and Harper facing a lefty-on-lefty matchup. While this is the top of the order, Nick Castellanos ($4,400), Alec Bohm ($3,900) and J.T. Realmuto ($4,300) all excelled against lefties this season and come at a more palatable price.
