We only have about 10 days left in the regular season, and we're about to start dealing with some late-season shenanigans. We expect some starters to be limited and some hitters to be rested for playoff teams over the closing weeks. There are also some nightmarish scenarios in which teams rest their whole lineup after clinching, and we'll see a handful of those over the next week, too. That shouldn't be an issue today, but it's something worth monitoring as we creep closer to the finish line. With that said, we only have four games making up this main card, so let's go ahead and get into it!
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Pitching
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, LAD vs. SF ($10,500)
Paul Skenes seems like the resounding favorite for NL Cy Young, but don't overlook how special Yamamoto has been. The Dodgers ace made his North American debut with a 3.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in his rookie season and has backed that up with a 2.66 ERA and 0.98 WHIP this year. He's been even better recently, registering a 2.02 ERA, 0.59 WHIP and 10.6 K/9 rate across his last five starts. Yoshi has actually scored at least 52 FanDuel points in three straight outings and shouldn't have any issues here since he has a home start against San Fran. The Giants rank 18th in K rate and 21st in wOBA, with Yamamoto scoring 52 and 46 FD points in their two most recent matchups.
Quinn Priester, MIL vs. LAA ($8,600)
What if I told you that a pitcher with a 13-2 record has a home matchup against one of the worst offenses in baseball and is the fourth-cheapest pitcher on this slate? That's exactly what we have with Priester, who has posted a 3.25 ERA and 1.23 WHIP to back up that absurd 13-2 record. He's also allowed two runs or fewer in 10 of his last 11 starts while entering this matchup as a -200 favorite. That massive moneyline is no surprise since the Angels rank 28th in OBP and dead last in K rate while scoring the fewest runs in baseball over the last month.
Top Targets
Giancarlo Stanton, NYY (vs. Cade Povich) $3,500
I've always loved recommending Stanton when he faces a southpaw. Stanton has a .277 AVG, .644 SLG and .986 OPS across his last 55 fixtures. He also has a .375 OBP against lefties this year while amassing a .372 OBP and .947 OPS against them throughout his career. That's bad news for one of the worst pitchers on this slate, and we'll discuss that more in the Stacks To Consider section.
William Contreras, MIL (vs. Yusei Kikuchi) $2,900
Why is Contreras below $3k? This guy has been one of the best catchers in baseball over the last four years, compiling a .362 OBP and .816 OPS. His second half has been sensational too, as he sports a .396 OBP and .945 OPS across his last 45 fixtures. That doesn't even take into consideration his stupendous splits. He's tallied a .402 OBP and .900 OPS against lefties over the last three years. Kikuchi's recent struggles -- a 9.68 ERA and 1.75 WHIP across his last four starts -- are a selling point too. We don't mind a full-on Milwaukee stack against Kikcuhi, with Jackson Chourio ($3,600) and Andrew Vaughn ($2,900) both hitting from the right side.
Bargain Bats
Sal Stewart, CIN (vs. Colin Rea) $2,800
The Reds have been looking for a third baseman all season, and they found one with Stewart. The 21-year-old had a .394 OBP and 1.023 OPS at Triple-A this season and has carried that form over into his time in Cincy. Stewart has a .290 AVG, .677 SLG and .990 OPS across his last nine outings. That's why they've moved him up to the five-hole, and it's difficult to find that type of production from a sub-$3K player. Not to mention, Rea has a 4.92 xERA while totaling a 6.05 ERA across his last four starts.
Austin Slater, NYY (vs. Cade Povich) $2,400
Slater has been playing sparingly for the Yanks, but he's their projected leadoff hitter in this spot. Getting the leadoff hitter for one of the top-scoring teams is quite the bonus, especially when he's only $2,400. That prominent lineup spot is no surprise since Slater has a .359 career OBP and .791 OPS with the platoon advantage. There's a 50-50 chance that Slater doesn't even find his way into the lineup, but he's the best punt play on the board if he does.
Stacks to Consider
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles (Povich): Aaron Judge ($4,800), Stanton ($3,500), Cody Bellinger ($3,500), Paul Goldschmidt ($2,700), Slater ($2,400)
We already recommended two Yankees, so we need to get into this matchup. New York ranks in the top-five in nearly every offensive metric, but they couldn't have a better matchup here. Baltimore is throwing Povich to the wolves given his 5.05 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. He hasn't had any success in his three starts against them either, accruing a 1.50 WHIP across 14.2 ugly innings.
If you're going to stack the Bronx Bombers, Judge has to be the first player in your build. The 2024 MVP has a .437 OBP and 1.112 OPS over the last four years while posting a 1.264 OPS against lefties this season. Bellinger is one of the rare players with opposite splits, producing a .397 OBP and 1.003 OPS against southpaws. Goldy is the final piece of the stack, generating a .424 career OBP and 1.012 OPS against left-handers.
