This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Monday morning, the Red Sox host the Angels. After that, though, we get a more typical slate of baseball. There are nine games starting at 7:10 p.m. EDT or later. That's not quite a full complement of teams, but it's not too shabby! Here are my recommendations.
Pitching
Jacob deGrom, TEX at KC ($10,600): While deGrom has a 4.32 ERA, that is mostly owed to his first start, which was rough. Over his last two outings he has a 2.08 ERA, including seven innings with nine strikeouts against these same Royals. Kansas City is down in the bottom five in runs scored and has a sub-.300 OBP, so I expect more of the same.
Jack Flaherty, STL vs. ARI ($8,300): Flaherty has been lucky, as he has an 1.76 ERA and 5.45 FIP. He's had an issue with walks, but in his last outing he only walked one at Coors Field. Arizona has promising young hitters, but so far it is below average offensively.
Top Targets
A rare bright spot in Pittsburgh, Bryan Reynolds ($4,400) has slashed .283/.360/.486 in his career, and he's opened 2023 with five homers and three stolen bases. Now, he gets to take a trip to Coors Field. Kyle Freeland may have an 0.96 ERA through three starts, but even with that he has a 5.20 ERA at home since 2021. Things are primed to change drastically for the lefty.
So far, Dansby Swanson ($3,300) has done everything with the Cubs but show power. However, he hit at least 25 homers in each of his last two seasons with Atlanta, so we know he can do that. The shortstop also had an .844 OPS against lefties in 2022. Swanson will face his former teammate in Kyle Muller on Monday, and the southpaw has a 5.23 ERA so far in his MLB career.
Bargain Bats
Last year as a rookie, Bryson Stott ($3,000) tallied 10 homers and 12 stolen bases. He just hit his first home runs of the season, but he also has a .380 average and has slugged .507. Lance Lynn has faced 29 lefties in 2023 and allowed a .385 average with four homers. That is not likely to be sustained, but last year all in all he had a 3.99 ERA and allowed 1.41 home runs per nine innings.
Although Chris Taylor ($2,600) hasn't made a ton of contact yet, he has four home runs. It was just two years ago when he had an .897 OPS against lefties and an .891 OPS at home. David Peterson has a 3.64 FIP last season, which was a high-water mark for him, and he has a 4.59 FIP through three starts in 2023. Also, since 2021 righties have hit .260 against the southpaw.
Stacks to Consider
Rangers at Royals (Jordan Lyles): Adolis Garcia ($3,400), Nathaniel Lowe ($3,300), Marcus Semien ($3,200)
Lyles continues to bounce around MLB, but the song remains the same. He has a 5.19 ERA through three starts with the Royals, in line with his career ERA of 5.10. Lefties hit him, righties hit him, and he doesn't really strike anybody out. He's a 32-year-old journeyman who has never had an ERA under 4.11 in a season. As long as Lyles keeps getting starts, I'll keep stacking against him.
Garcia is off to a slow start, though he does have three home runs. He had 27 homers and 25 stolen bases in 2022, though, so I expect him to pick it up. Lowe has performed more like a traditional southpaw hitter in 2023, excelling against righties but struggling against lefties. Since 2021 he has an .862 OPS on the road. I also expect Semien to pick it up, given that he had 26 homers and 25 stolen bases himself last year. Indeed, he hit a grand slam Sunday. He's definitely been better on the road since joining the Rangers, and last year had an .836 OPS in away games.
Rockies vs. Pirates (Rich Hill): C.J. Cron ($3,800), Kris Bryant ($3,100), Elehuris Montero ($3,000)
You don't necessarily need to find a stack every time there is a game at Coors Field, but in this case it makes a ton of sense. The 43-year-old Hill is really struggling with home runs to start the year. He's allowed 3.60 per nine innings. Now, owing to his traditional success against lefties, I am stacking three righties, but this stack could pay off in terms of the long ball.
Cron had a 30-homer season prior to joining the Rockies, but he's definitely liked hitting at Coors. In his time with Colorado he has a .988 OPS at home. Bryant has had limited opportunities at Coors Field since signing with the Rockies, but since 2021 he has a .922 OPS versus southpaws. He also has a career .501 slugging percentage, even though he spent the bulk of his career with the Cubs. Montero hit six home runs in 53 games with the Rockies last season, and he's started this year batting .310. Also, yes, he has an .844 OPS at home in the majors.
