This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
The beginning of the MLB season. A time when Trayce Thompson can lead MLB in homers and Adam Duvall can be well above the Mendoza Line. Obviously, the sample sizes are not significant, but they are fun. For DFS, though, looking to the past helps. There are 11 MLB games starting at 7:05 p.m. EDT or later. Here are my recommendations.
Pitching
Shane Bieber, CLE at OAK ($11,000): Bieber's first start went smoothly, as he went six innings of shutout baseball. That builds nicely upon the 2.88 ERA he had in 2022. The Athletics are likely to vie for having the worst offense in baseball, and their ballpark has long been pitcher friendly.
Framber Valdez, HOU vs. DET ($9,800): Valdez is as good at suppressing home runs as any pitcher, and when he's on the mound, grounders abound. Of course, the Tigers aren't threatening to hit many homers anyway. They finished last in runs scored last year for a reason.
JP Sears, OAK vs. CLE ($7,300): I wanted to give you an option that can save you some salary, so I'm going with Sears. He's a lefty, and a few of Cleveland's key bats are lefties. Plus, Oakland's ballpark is pitcher friendly, as I noted. He's only in his second season in the majors. He might not get a lot of offensive support, but if this is a low-scoring affair, Sears could still help DFS players out.
Top Targets
In a year where stolen bases seem primed to be on the rise, Starling Marte ($3,900) could be in for a huge year. Remember, he stole 47 bases in 2021. Marte is also a guy who hits for average, having batted .292 last year. Wade Miley is back with the Brewers, and he doesn't allow many home runs. The lefty still has a career 4.13 FIP, though, so a guy who hits for average like Marte could be a better play than a masher.
Randy Arozarena ($3,800) has hit 20 home runs in each of his two full MLB seasons. He's also stolen at least 20 bases in each of those two campaigns as well. The Nationals have given Chad Kuhl a gig in the rotation, presumably out of desperation. Kuhl has a career 4.70 FIP and last year righties hit .306 against him.
Bargain Bats
The Royals have a lot of lefties in their lineup, but Hunter Dozier ($2,400) is a righty. One who had a .740 OPS versus southpaws in 2022. Yusei Kikuchi is in the Blue Jays rotation again, but he has a lot of improvement to make. In his first season in Toronto, Kikuchi had a 5.61 FIP.
Last season Ji Hwan Bae ($2,400) only appeared in 10 games for the Pirates, but they were promising. The southpaw has limited experience in MLB, but has a .975 OPS versus righties in that time. Since joining the Red Sox rotation, Nick Pivetta has a 5.07 ERA at home, and he is a righty as well.
Stacks to Consider
Blue Jays at Royals (Kris Bubic): Vladimir Guerrero ($4,000), George Springer ($3,800), Whit Merrifield ($2,800)
I mentioned one Royal to consider for your lineup, but I have a Blue Jays stack for you. Bubic has been a below-average pitcher throughout his career. He's posted a 4.90 FIP over three seasons. Additionally, he's allowed 1.40 home runs per nine innings, so the long ball could be in play here.
Speaking of the long ball, Vladdie's hitting took a dip in 2022, but he still racked up 32 homers. Given that he had 48 the year prior, his power upside is clear. Oh, and he's still only 24. Springer is good at getting on base (.357 career OBP) and had 25 homers and 14 stolen bases in only 133 games last year. Plus, he performed better on the road, posting an .840 OPS on that front. Merrifield will be facing his former team Tuesday. Two seasons ago he stole 40 bases, so he's one of the guys to keep an eye on with base stealing on the rise in 2023.
Rangers vs. Orioles (Kyle Gibson): Adolis Garcia ($3,900), Marcus Semien ($3,900), Corey Seager ($3,500)
Until somebody (Josh Jung, for example) steps up, I am focused on stacking the big three from the Rangers when they have the right matchup. Gibson is such a matchup. This was supposed to be Tyler Wells, but then Wells was used for five innings out of the bullpen Monday, and the switch is even better for the Rangers. Gibson had a 5.05 ERA last season, and in his first start with the Orioles he allowed four runs in five innings against the Red Sox.
Garcia struggles to get on base at a .300 clip, but he's still a ton of fun, and productive in the ways that entice DFS players. He had 27 homers and 25 stolen bases last year and drove in 101 runs on the new-look Rangers. Semien was one of those Rangers that revamped the lineup. He also had 26 homers and 25 swiped bags, but the year prior he hit 45 homers, though that was with the Jays. Coming off a season in which he had a .242 BABIP due to unfettered shifting, the lefty Seager is a great bet for major improvement. Besides, he had a .901 OPS at home last year.
Cardinals vs. Atlanta (Dylan Dodd): Paul Goldschmidt ($4,000), Nolan Arenado ($3,800), Jordan Walker ($2,500)
Dodd is making his MLB debut on the road in St. Louis. He has made all of one start above the Double-A level. He could be good! He also probably wouldn't be in the rotation at the moment if the Atlanta rotation was fully healthy. I'd take a shot at stacking these three righties against the southpaw.
Goldschmidt is the reigning NL MVP so, you know, there's that. He posted a .982 OPS in 2022, which is high, but this is a guy with a career .918 OPS. In essence, an elite hitter. Arenado bounced back from a down season for him in 2021, but he's never dipped against lefties. Since joining the Cardinals he has a .931 OPS versus southpaws. Walker is a rookie, and a vaunted prospect. We don't know much about him either, but at least so far he has not looked overwhelmed by being in the majors.
