This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
The leftover burgers are in the fridge and the remaining fireworks are waiting to be set off. Before you put the finishing touches on your 4th of July fodder, it's time to set your DFS lineups for Wednesday. There are 11 MLB games starting at 7:05 p.m. EDT or later, and these are my recommendations.
Pitching
Bobby Miller, LAD vs. PIT ($9,900): Miller's last start was decent, getting the rookie back on track after two bad starts. However, his first four starts in MLB were stellar, as he allowed two runs total over those outings. I think he can handle a matchup with the Pirates, at least enough to get a win. Pittsburgh has fallen into the bottom eight in runs scored with a record that now sits comfortably below .500 after that hot start.
Justin Steele, CHC at MIL ($9,700): When the 2023 MLB campaign kicked off, Steele's name was not being bandied around as a likely All-Star. However, here we are, and the lefty has earned his spot in the All-Star Game with a 2.43 ERA. He's proven himself elite at keeping the ball in the park, having only allowed 0.79 home runs per nine innings in his career. The Brewers pretty much only produce by hitting homers, but they still sit in the bottom eight in runs scored with a .228 batting average as a team.
Jose Berrios, TOR at CWS ($9,600): On the season, Berrios has a 4.30 ERA on the road. However, over his last six road starts his ERA is down to 2.21. Plus, most of his issues are with lefties, and the White Sox don't have the lineup to take advantage of that. In fact, Chicago's offense doesn't do much to threaten anybody, as it sits in the bottom 10 in runs scored with a team OBP floating around .300.
Top Targets
Oddly, Pete Alonso ($4,100) has had trouble making contact, but his elite power is still there, so the instances when he makes contact tend to turn out well. He's slugged .510 and hit 25 homers in 77 games. Alonso's issues have mostly been at home, as on the road he has a .958 OPS. The lefty Tommy Henry has a career 5.44 FIP, and his big issues is allowing home runs. He's given up 1.72 homers per nine innings in MLB.
A scorching Ketel Marte ($3,600) has slashed .285/.365/.502 with 15 homers, six stolen bases, and four triples. He'll get a shot at the righty Kodai Senga on Wednesday, and fortunately he'll be at home to do so. Senga has looked impressive at Citi Field in his first MLB campaign, but he has a 4.58 ERA on the road.
Bargain Bats
Spencer Steer ($3,600) got a leg up on his vaunted prospect teammates who debuted in the midst of the 2023 campaign, and he has been overshadowed in their wake, but Steer is no slouch. He's slashed .292/.381/.505 with 14 homers and nine stolen bases. After having ERAs over 5.00 in each of his first two seasons, Josiah Gray's ERA is down to 3.30 this year. However, his FIP is still up at 4.57, and also his home ERA is still up at 5.17 as well.
Sure, Luis Garcia ($2,600) doesn't have power, but the second baseman has a .267 average with five homers, three triples, and four stolen bases. He's also a lefty, and since 2021 he has a .409 slugging percentage against righties (the closest he gets to showing "power"). Graham Ashcraft seemed to have turned a corner this season, but he has been a disaster for several starts in a row now. Over his last nine starts, Ashcraft has a 10.89 ERA.
Stacks to Consider
Atlanta at Guardians (Cal Quantrill): Orlando Arcia ($3,800), Ozzie Albies ($3,700), Marcell Ozuna ($3,200)
A stack brought to you by the letter "O" taking advantage of the rare athlete whose last name starts with the letter "Q." Of course, the alphabet doesn't win you DFS contests, but numbers like these do. Quantrill, like Ashcraft, has been wobbly for a bit here. Over Quantrill last five starts he has a 10.03 ERA, giving him a 6.18 ERA on the season. Never much of a strikeout guy, the righty has only struck out 5.03 batters per nine innings, and his groundball rate is down at 38.9 in a league where anything below 40 percent is a reason for concern. Since 2021, righties have hit .270 against Quantrill, which led me to this stack.
Arcia has been cold, but he's a shortstop, where the offensive baseline is lower, and on the season he's slashed .296/.347/.435 with seven home runs as well. The one thing Quantrill is still doing well this year is keeping the ball in the park, so having a shortstop who doesn't rely on the long ball works in this matchup. Albies is a switch hitter, and admittedly he prefers to face lefties. However, he has a .971 OPS over the last three weeks, and a .903 OPS on the road on the season, so I still like him in this stack against a struggling pitcher. Ozuna has slugged .496 with 17 home runs. He's been way better against lefties, which is atypical for him, but his .798 OPS against righties is not too shabby, and his .873 OPS on the road is quite good.
Twins vs. Royals (Alec Marsh): Byron Buxton ($3,500), Joey Gallo ($2,700), Michael Taylor ($2,500)
Marsh started his age-25 season down in Double-A. Now, here he is, getting his second MLB start. It's not because the first one went well, though. At home against the Dodgers – admittedly a tougher lineup than Minnesota's – the righty allowed six hits, four walks, two homers, and five earned runs across four innings. That's not good, and it's not like Marsh is a vaunted prospect, as RotoWire's rankings don't even have him in the top 10 for the Royals as a farm system. I'm down to take a shot stacking against the unproven pitcher.
The Twins have committed to keeping Buxton, an elite outfielder, at DH to try and keep him healthy, so it would be nice if he was producing more at the plate. His 15 homers and eight stolen bases are something, at least. Also, he has a .774 OPS against righties and a .769 OPS at home. Gallo will be out there swinging for the fences, of course. He had 15 homers and a .481 slugging percentage while sitting below the Mendoza Line. The southpaw has an .826 OPS against righties, who have ceded 13 of those home runs. Taylor has 10 homers and 11 stolen bases, and it's easier to steal against a right-handed pitcher. It was only 10 batters, so bear that in mind, but Marsh allowed four hits and two homers to righties in that debut start against the Dodgers.
Guardians vs. Atlanta (Michael Soroka): Jose Ramirez ($3,800), Amed Rosario ($2,900), Will Brennan ($2,300)
Soroka was supposed to be at the forefront of the wave of young pitchers that have arrived and excelled for Atlanta. He did just that in 2019, but then injuries derailed his career. Soroka is back in MLB pitching for the first time since 2020, and it has not been going well. He has a 7.44 FIP and has allowed five home runs in 15.2 innings. To make that seem even worse, two of the teams he's pitched against are the Marlins and Athletics. Now, the Guardians are also down toward the bottom of the league offensively, but if Soroka can't handle Oakland, who can he handle?
Ramirez has not been the issue in Cleveland to any degree, having hit .286 with 13 homers and nine stolen bases, business as usual for him. While Ramirez is a switch hitter, since 2021 he has a .920 OPS against righties. Rosario doesn't have power, but he has speed. He's picked up five triple and nine stolen bases in 2023. Also, since joining Cleveland he has a .750 OPS at home, and this year his OPS at home is up to .808. Brennan is a new addition to the Guardians lineup, and he's picked up five homers and six stolen bases. The lefty has major splits, but in his career he has an .805 OPS against righties.
