Ten games comprise our main slate Tuesday evening at FanDuel, getting underway at 7:05 p.m. EDT. Six arms are considered pay-ups, 30 percent of the available options, so there will be multiple paths to roster construction.
The Dodgers are in an obvious plus spot against the White Sox, and come in as massive -330 favorites, followed by the Rangers at -210. This shouldn't be a surprise given those two have the slate's most expensive pitching options. Rangers-Orioles is our lowest run total at 7.0, and we're lead, unsurprisingly, by Astros-Rockies in Coors Field at 11.5, followed by Red Sox-Reds at 10.0. We'll unfortunately need to track rain in Tampa Bay, New York, Boston and Atlanta, so lineups need to be monitored heavily up prior to first pitch. Wind could be an offensive asset in New York, Colorado and Los Angeles.
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Pitching
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, LAD vs. CWS ($10,800): This is far and away the obvious play of the day, and Yamamoto likely is the cash game option everyone will use. We noted the Dodgers being heavily favored, and the White Sox are second to last with a 78 wRC+ off righties, adding just a .283 wOBA. Yamamoto's form is surprisingly lacking of late with just two quality starts in his last five, but the matchup is soft enough for a potentially large payoff.
Grant Holmes, ATL vs. LAA ($9,100): Atlanta has flipped Holmes and Didier Fuentes, and Holmes is not currently highlighted by FanDuel as Tuesday's starter, perhaps giving him a lower roster rate. I'm a little surprised by his salary, which many may not be willing to pay, again perhaps giving us low usage. Holmes has shown high strikeout potential, and that's always the play when targeting the Angels, who strike out 25.9 percent of the time against righties. The slate is pretty gross as far as pay-down options go, and Holmes might be about as low as I'd be willing to go as a result.
Tyler Anderson, LAA at ATL ($7,600): We keep waiting for Atlanta's bats to wake up, yet they still snooze away. The team enters Tuesday with a .291 wOBA and 83 wRC+ off lefties, striking out 24.0 percent of the time. Sure, this is still a lineup with high-upside hitters, so Anderson is not without risk, but once he gets through the top two in the order (Ronald Acuna and Matt Olson), no one else is doing much at the moment. Anderson has just one quality start in his last nine outings, and has gone five-plus innings just five times, so his upside is minimal, but a 3x return is certainly in the realm of possibilities.
Top Targets
Astros' bats aren't priced up significantly despite the Coors Field factor, and are the obvious spot to start. Colorado starter Chase Dollander is allowing a .400 wOBA to lefties and .395 wOBA to righties, so feel free to target any and all Houston bats. Cam Smith ($3,400) looks particularly appealing at this salary.
A lack of BvP success has me not stacking Giants bats, but Zac Gallen remains someone we can confidently target. He's allowing a .395 wOBA to lefties at home, putting Rafael Devers ($3,800) on the radar despite a current 0-for-11 skid.
Bobby Witt ($3,900) looks like a safe play. He'll face Emerson Hancock, who is allowing a .382 wOBA to righties at home, while Witt has 10 hits over his last eight games.
Bargain Bats
The Rays are on fire, but don't have a ton of targetable splits against lefties. If we're backing stats, it's a rare spot to target an LvL matchup, as A's starter Jeffrey Springs is allowing a .375 wOBA to lefties on the road, his highest mark. Josh Lowe ($3,200) has a .381 wOBA and 149 wRC+ against southpaws, and has 11 hits in his six-game hitting streak.
Both the Reds and Red Sox have expected run totals north of 5.0. Boston starter Richard Fitts doesn't have enough innings to generate meaningful splits, but Cincinnati boasts some decent cheap options. TJ Friedl ($2,800) has hits in eight of nine games, while Matt McLain ($2,700) has seven hits in his last four. Wilyer Abreu ($2,800) on the other side of this matchup has two homers and nine RBI in his last three.
Stacks to Consider
Diamondbacks vs. Hayden Birdsong (Giants): Ketel Marte ($4,200), Geraldo Perdomo ($3,400), Pavin Smith ($2,800)
Birdsong was just torched by the Marlins, and has allowed 16 runs across his last four starts, spanning just 18.2 innings. He's allowing a .388 wOBA and .912 OPS to lefties, so we can load up on Diamondbacks as a result. Loyal readers know my affinity for Marte, who needs no introduction; he's simply one of the best hitters in the league. Injuries allow us a little bargain on the other two pieces, as Perdomo likely hits leadoff and Smith provides a third lefty who should slot in near the top of the lineup.
Rangers vs. Brandon Young (Orioles): Corey Seager ($3,300), Marcus Semien ($2,800), Adolis Garcia ($2,800)
Young was decent in Triple-A, but hasn't proven capable of retiring big-league hitters, allowing a .435 wOBA and .991 OPS to lefties and a .392/.942 to righties. Season-long struggles for the Rangers offense make this a bargain stack as well. Seager has always been streaky, and he's in a groove right now with hits in eight of nine, and homers in three of four. Semien too is rolling at the moment with 11 hits in his last six. Garcia remains a bit of an enigma, but he homered in his last game and has eight RBI across his last six.
