The road teams have been dominating these series, and it's hard to understand why. Home field advantage is typically a massive bump in the playoffs, but we haven't seen a home team win across five games in this round! That's an outlier, but it's something worth monitoring as we creep closer to the World Series. We're also fortunate to have two games to discuss here, because that's only scheduled to happen two more times this season. With that said, let's get started with one of the best pitchers in baseball.
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Pitching
Tyler Glasnow, LAD vs. MIL ($10,100)
The Dodgers have been limiting their starters' workloads all season, and it's clearly paying dividends when it matters most. Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell allowed just one combined run across 17 innings through the first two games of this series. That shows just how much the Milwaukee lineup is struggling right now, and it's unlikely to get much better against an ace like Glasnow. The righty dropped 46 FanDuel points in his last playoff start while registering a 3.24 ERA and 1.01 WHIP since 2021. That doesn't even take into consideration Glasnow's superb splits, as he sports a 2.77 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 11.7 K/9 rate at home this year while posting a 0.82 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in two matchups with Milwaukee. Not to mention, he enters this matchup as a -190 favorite!
Top Targets
Vladimir Guerrero, TOR (vs. Luis Castillo) $3,800
Vlad was the best player on the field in Toronto's Game 3 win, but he's been raking like that for months. The perennial All-Star closed the regular season with a .380 OBP, .526 SLG and .906 OPS across his final 61 outings. He's been even better this postseason, providing a .515 OBP, .964 SLG and 1.479 OPS through seven games. That's something you'd see from Barry Bonds on MVP Baseball 2003, but Vlad is the real deal. It's not like Castillo is a concerning matchup either, as he compiled a 4.68 ERA across his final eight regular-season starts.
Mookie Betts, LAD (vs. Jose Quintana) $3,800
We just discussed how Vlad was one of the best hitters in the second half, but Mookie was right there with him. The former MVP had a .343 OBP, .584 SLG and .928 OPS across his final 22 regular-season games. He's carried that over into the postseason, posting a .395 OBP and .849 OPS. All of that makes him an easy option against a journeyman like Quintana, because Betts has the platoon advantage against the lefty. Mookie has a .377 career OBP and .898 OPS against southpaws while posting a .923 OPS at home. We didn't even mention that Betts has a .797 OPS in 28 at-bats against Quintana.
Bargain Bats
Will Smith, LAD (vs. Quintana) $3,300
Stacking the Dodgers is far from sneaky, but Smith is the most undervalued asset in this lineup. The catcher typically bats cleanup, and there's no better spot in baseball than behind three MVP candidates. Smith has earned that spot with a career year, collecting a .404 OBP and .901 OPS this season. The best part about all of this is Smith's sensational splits, and he's tallied a .865 OPS against southpaws since the start of last year. We'll talk about Quintana more in the Stacks To Consider section.
Jorge Polanco, SEA (vs. Max Scherzer) $3,200
Why is Polanco this cheap? This guy played at a $4K level over the second half of the season, amassing a .339 AVG, .688 SLG and 1.075 OPS across his final 32 games. You'd think he was struggling in the playoffs based on this price tag, but Polanco has a .300 AVG and .977 OPS across his last seven playoff games. That makes him an easy option against Scherzer, because the 41-year-old had a 5.19 ERA and 1.29 WHIP this season, and Polanco has a .786 career OPS against right-handers. Seattle is our second-favorite stack on this slate, with Julio Rodriguez ($3,900) and Josh Naylor ($3,400) looking like the best pairings with Polanco.
Stacks to Consider
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Quintana): Shohei Ohtani ($4,600), Betts ($3,800), Freddie Freeman ($3,600), Teoscar Hernandez ($3,600), Smith ($3,300)
How can anyone fade the Dodgers on this slate? This is undoubtedly the best lineup in baseball, ranked in the top-five in every offensive metric during the regular season. It's easy to see why when seeing all of the All-Stars at the top, but they're impossible to avoid on a small slate against a guy like Quintana. The lefty had a 3.96 ERA and 1.29 WHIP during the regular season while posting a 7.40 ERA and 1.50 WHIP across his final four starts.
Ohtani is an obvious option as the centerpiece of this stack. He's been the top-scoring player in DFS over the last three years, averaging 15.1 FanDuel points per game this year. Freeman has been rolling in the second half, flirting with a .900 OPS since August. Hernandez has the platoon advantage against Quintana while accumulating a .294 AVG, .676 SLG and 1.010 OPS in the Dodgers' postseason run.
