One sad reality about the MLB season is that the NFL takes over the public discourse for the final month of the regular season, although baseball fans may not look at it that way. The upside is that many more people are playing DFS. That leads to some bigger prize pools during the week, but those are limited here on the opening night for the NFL. That's why we only have five games on this slate, but it's still a fun one to dissect!
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Pitching
Blake Snell, LAD at PIT ($8,800)
Snell always seems to do the same thing every year. He gets off to a terrible start, spends some time on the IL, and then becomes the best pitcher in the world over the closing months. That's the same book we're reading this season, with Snell sporting a 1.93 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 10.0 K/9 rate across his last four starts, scoring at least 17 DK points in five straight outings. The best part about this matchup is Pittsburgh's pitiful offense, ranked 29th or 30th in runs scored, OPS and wOBA. That's why we're looking at one of the lowest totals of the season between Snell and Paul Skenes.
Ryan Pepiot, TB vs. CLE ($8,400)
Nobody likes to trade with Tampa Bay because they seem to win most of them. Acquiring Pepiot last year was one of their sneakier acquisitions, with the righty providing a 3.70 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in a breakout campaign. He's also thrown five scoreless innings in back-to-back outings while totaling a 3.25 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 9.5 K/9 rate at home this year. That's impossible to overlook since he faces the Guardians, ranked 28th in runs scored, 29th in OPS and last in wOBA. In a home start against them last year, Pepiot surrendered two hits across six scoreless innings.
Top Targets
Trent Grisham, NYY (vs. Cristian Javier) $3,500
Grisham has one of the most glorious moustaches in baseball right now, and it's definitely helping his game. This slugger is up to a career-high 28 homers, compiling a .487 OBP, .931 SLG and 1.418 OPS across his last nine outings. That OPS is over 1.000 over the last month, too, with NY sticking Grisham into their leadoff spot against righties. He has a .377 OBP and .911 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor this season, while facing a righty who has a 4.26 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over the last three years. If you want to stack the Yanks, Aaron Judge ($4,700) and Jazz Chisholm ($3,700) look like the best pairings with Grisham.
Luke Keaschall, MIN (vs. Jonathan Cannon) $3,100
Keaschall isn't in the running for AL Rookie of the Year, but he's been one of the best rookies in the second half. After posting a .417 OBP and .878 OPS across his minor league career, Keaschall has collected a .405 OBP and .901 OPS across 31 games at this level. That's paired with a 30-homer, 40-steal pace, which Keaschall is compiling a .500 OBP and 1.127 OPS against righties. All of that has Minnesota putting Keaschall in their three-hole, which is the optimal spot in one of our favorite stacks of the day. We'll discuss that more later!
Bargain Bats
Vinnie Pasquantino, KC (vs. Kyle Hendricks) $3,000
Vinnie P is well on his way to a career year. The slugger has a career-high 28 homers while on pace to flirt with 120 RBI. A ton of that damage has happened recently, with Pasquantino providing a 1.014 OPS across his last 19 outings. We love that when peeking at Pasquantino's pristine splits, sporting a .341 OBP and .838 OPS against right-handers this year. That should bode well against a subpar pitcher like Hendricks, and we'll talk about that more in the stacks section.
Kyle Teel, CWS (vs. Taj Bradley) $2,700
This has been the season of the catcher, but nobody is talking about Teel. This was one of the top prospects in baseball before his call-up, with Teel tallying a .403 OBP and .864 OPS throughout his minor league career. He's actually been just as good at this level, totaling a .398 OBP and .898 OPS across his last 33 fixtures. Getting that sort of production from a catcher this cheap is tough to find, especially since Teel has a .396 OBP and .838 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. It's not like Bradley is a scary matchup either, amassing a 4.77 career ERA. Chicago is a difficult team to stack, but Mike Tauchman ($2,800) and Lenyn Sosa ($2,700) are projected to bat leadoff and third around Teel.
Stacks to Consider
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels (Kyle Hendricks): Bobby Witt ($3,700), Pasquantino ($3,000), Maikel Garcia ($3,000), Salvador Perez ($2,700)
The Royals were one of the worst offenses in baseball throughout the first half, but something has changed since then. They rank Top 10 in OBP, OPS and xwOBA over the last month, dropping eight hits and six runs in their last matchup with Hendricks. That's no surprise since he has one of the worst K rates in baseball while accruing a 5.38 ERA and 1.38 WHIP since the start of last year.
If you want to stack KC, Witt has to be the first player in your build. The superstar has a .401 OBP and .960 OPS across his last 33 outings, while recording six homers and seven steals. As for Garcia, he's hitting leadoff or cleanup every day, thanks to his outstanding .833 OPS. Perez is the final piece of the stack at the catcher position, posting a .783 OPS since 2020.
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox (Jonathan Cannon): Keaschall ($3,100), Matt Wallner ($3,000), Trevor Larnach ($2,800), Royce Lewis ($2,900)
This is a contrarian stack, but there's one reason we love it. This Twins offense has been better than most expected after a fire sale at the trade deadline, with many of these guys remaining way too cheap. Having that sort of salary flexibility with so many good pitchers is critical on a slate like this, and Minnesota might be the best option from that facet. Cannon is not the sort of pitcher we're concerned about, compiling a 5.34 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.
Keaschall is the key to this Twins stack, but some of these lefty bats are great pivots as well. Wallner should hit fourth or fifth next to Laranch, producing a .364 OBP and .898 OPS against righties throughout his career. Larnach has similar splits, totaling a .782 OPS against right-handers. Lewis has struggled this season overall, but his hot streaks can be scorching and he's provided an .857 OPS across his last 10 outings.
