A nine-game main slate awaits Saturday evening at FanDuel, with first pitch at 7:05 p.m EDT. A pitcher's duel in Milwaukee gives us the slate's two highest priced arms, with four more options coming in a pay up tier, a third of the options available.
Giants-Brewers naturally has our lowest run line at 7.5, but offense should be plentiful elsewhere., as five of the nine games have a 9.0 or 9.5 run total. The Mariners (-184) are the slate's biggest favorite. Weather looks dry, but early reports suggest wind could be a boost in both Baltimore and Chicago. If that's confirmed as morning turns to evening, it will make for very targetable offenses.
Pitching
George Kirby, SEA vs. ATH ($10,000): No reason at all to fade Logan Webb or Freddy Peralta above Kirby, but we can save a few bucks and at least have a favorable ballpark factor. Kirby has been far better at home, posting a 3.38 ERA (3.34 xFIP). He's off a terrible outing against the Mets, and truth be told, the A's have hit him hard in limited exposure (15-for-39 (.385) with a 1.026 OPS). Given those two factors, we could get some lower roster percentages to take advantage of in GPPs.
Tyler Glasnow, LAD at SDP ($9,400): Glasnow has dominated this lineup, allowing them to go 16-for-98 (.163) with a .490 OPS and 35.0 percent strikeout rate. He's allowed more than two runs in a start just one in seven outings since returning from IL, but there remains minor concerns about pitch count/innings limitations potentially prohibiting from reaching an elite ceiling. He fanned eight Padres in five innings last time out, reaching 33 FDP, still a fair 3.5x return if he just repeats that.
Mick Abel, MIN at CWS ($7,200): The wind potential makes this a huge gamble, as Abel has a 45.5 percent fly ball rate and 20.0 HR/FB rate, but the White Sox aren't likely to be an offense we target, so Abel is a viable paydown option by default. Chicago has a weak 85 wRC+ and .131 ISO off righties. Abel hasn't shown his strikeout stuff at the Major League level yet, but he's consistently produced more than a K per inning on his way to the big leagues. If he can keep the ball on the ground, a big if, there's a very realistic path to a 4x return.
Top Targets
I have great interest in game stacking Mets - Braves as Clay Holmes has faded due to his workload, and no one is afraid to face Cal Quantril. Francisco Lindor ($3,500) is considerably underpriced for his form. He's riding a 10-game hitting streak that's seen him collect 22 total knocks, four homers, eight RBI, 12 runs and four steals. The Atlanta side isn't as obvious, so perhaps it's just set Ronald Acuna ($3,900) and forget it. He homered last night, and while not scorching the ball since his return, he's quietly on a six-game hitting streak.
If fading Kirby given the BvP struggles against the A's, Brent Rooker ($3,600) is your guy. He's 5-for-12 (.417) with a homer and a double, and also went deep last night.
Bargain Bats
We're not chasing yesterday's results, but Royce Lewis ($2,700) is a cheap entry into the Twins offense that comes with potential wind boosts. He's homered twice in his last five, collecting six hits, collecting six hits, five RBI and four runs.
Brett Baty ($2,900) gives cheap Mets exposure, but hits low in the lineup so it wouldn't make for pairing/stacking with the top Mets bats. He's got 15 hits and three homers over his last 10 games, and has taken Quantril deep in five at bats.
Baltimore-Houston is another very obvious game stack situation, but it's largely the wind that appeals as the two offenses are far from trustworthy. Jose Altuve ($3,200) feels underpriced, as does Carlos Correa ($2,800). On the Baltimore side, I've continued to tout Ryan Mountcastle ($2,800), who now has an eight-game hitting streak. and Samuel Basallo ($2,400) for cheap upside.
Stack to Consider
Cubs vs. Victor Mederos (Angels): Seiya Suzuki ($3,500), Kyle Tucker ($3,400), Michael Busch ($2,900)
With other games being more obvious or favorable targets, perhaps this goes ignored. And maybe it should, as the Cubs offense hasn't been up to par in quite some time. The prices show as much. Yet they still come with a 5.6 run expectancy, the slate's highest number. Mederos is the target, having not shown capable at the highest level. He's allowing a .446 wOBA and 1.063 OPS to lefties, and a .376/.880 to righties. These three should feature at the top of the order, making for easy decisions, and all three offer power potential.
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