This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
I have been rolling along quite nicely this MLB season sporting a 46-20 record good for 70% winning bets averaging a +121 wager and earning a 52% ROI this season. This following play grades as an 8-Unit best bet opportunity on a 5,8, and 10-Unit scale.
Are the Philadelphia Phillies Coming Together Just at the Right Time?
The Phillies have gone just 14-12 since the All-Star break and have had some great games and mini-win streaks. Conversely, they have had some ugly games and ugly mini-losing streaks, too. They are coming off a losing three-game series to the AL Central-leading Minnesota Twins, who are 17-12 since the All-Star break and lost the last two games scoring a combined total of just one run.
They have had a day off to regroup and get that offense back in high gear and look to have Aaron Nola to put up a quality start of at least six innings and three or fewer earned runs when they head across the northern border to play the Toronto Blue Jays in the first of a two-game set. The Phillies are 11 games over .500 and own the first of three NL Wild Card berths by two games over the San Francisco Giants and 2.5 games over the Miami Marlins. Both the NL Central Chicago Cubs, and Cincinnati Reds are just one game back from the Marlins and trail the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers by 3.5 games.
The Toronto Blue Jays, like the Phillies, are in the thick of the AL Wild Card race and currently own the third and final berth with a two-game lead over the Seattle Mariners and a three-game lead over their division-rival Boston Red Sox. The Blue Jays are 12 games over .500 and based on the contenders' remaining schedules it will take a record of about 18 games over .500 to lock in a wild-card berth. So, the Blue Jays need to go 29-23 over their remaining 42 games to be a near-certain playoff team.
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Can Nola Be a Horse Down the Stretch?
Aaron Nola needs to pitch into the bottom part and to both sides of the strike zone. He has allowed 26 home runs, which is six more than all last season. He led the Majors with an outstanding 8.10 strikeouts-to-walk ratio, but this season has posted a pedestrian 4.37 ratio. The reason can simply be pinpointed to throwing far too many pitches over the middle of the plate in hitters' counts. This season he is allowing a launch angle of 14.3 degrees, far above his career average of 10.6 degrees. So, the adjustment he needs to make is quite minor and if successful he will get an abundance of ground-ball outs instead of the rockets to the outfield.
The Phillies' Trea Turner became the first professional player in any sport who was mired in a severe season-long slump and got a standing ovation from the boo-happy fans of South Philadelphia. Since that inspiration and supportive fan moment, he has gone on a 10-game hitting streak and is looking far different than at any time this season. For the month of July, he batted an anemic .217 with a .269 on-base percentage, including two home runs. In August, he is batting .333 and has a .370 on-base percentage, and has stopped chasing low-and-away pitches.
Turner's swing changed almost overnight and was averaging an 18-degree launch angle as compared to his previous career average of 10.2 degrees. His most recent 30 games have seen him produce a 9.5-degree average launch angle and the results have been superb.
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A Situational Betting System Supporting the Phillies
The following betting system has produced an exceptional 54-29 record, averaging a +111-money line wager and a 50 percent ROI over the past five seasons. The requirements are to bet on any NL team that is batting between .255 and .269 on the season, and is starting a pitcher who is averaging at least five strikeouts per start and is facing an AL starter who has an ERA of 4.20 or lower on the season. If the game is on the road, their record improves to a solid 49-40 mark, averaging a -101 wager and earning a 12 percent ROI over the past five seasons. If our team is on the road and playing the first game of a series, their record soars to 17-12, averaging a -105 wager and earning an 18 percent ROI over the past five seasons. Last, if our team has one day of rest and it is the first game of the series independent of home or away, they have gone 17-10, averaging a -118 wager for a 22 percent ROI spanning the past five seasons.
