MLB Picks: Cy Young Odds and Best Bets

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Published on March 5, 2025

Cy Young Odds and Best Bets: MLB Picks

It's awards season, or so I am told. Since I have not seen an Oscar-nominated movie, nor heard of most of them, I will stick to something I know better….baseball! We have betting markets for the big awards. Let's kick it off with Cy Young

*Odds courtesy of DraftKings

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AL Cy Young Odds

Tarik Skubal (+400)
Garrett Crochet (+600)
Cole Ragans (+900)
Jacob deGrom (+1100)
Gerrit Cole (+1600)
Logan Gilbert (+1600)
Framber Valdez (+1700)
Pablo Lopez (+1700)
Shane McClanahan (+2000)
George Kirby (+2200)

Stay on top of the AL Cy Young odds all season here at RotoWire.

On top of the board, I like Garrett Crochet the best, but not enough to play at +600. He had crazy-good numbers on a terrible White Sox team last year, such as 35.5% K% vs. just a 5.5% BB%. The Southsiders wisely slowed him down as he did not go further than 4 IP in a start after June. He still threw 146 IP, so if he stays healthy, the Red Sox could have him for a full run this season.

Yes, Fenway is a tough park for lefty pitchers, but if you strike out a third of the batters you face, the Green Monster becomes way less of an issue. If he stays healthy (a very big IF for a guy that has 219 total MLB innings since 2020) his upside tops even Tarik Skubal. Here are my picks.

Framber Valdez, Houston Astros +1700

The Astros' lefty has both durability and consistency, two rare traits in today's game. He has missed roughly three starts since 2021, all last season, and has ERA's of 2.82. 3.45 and 2.91. He does not possess the flash of others with career K% of 23.5% and SwStr% of 10.9%. What he does do is keep the ball on the ground year after year. He has a career Launch Angle (LA) of -1.0 (that's not a typo) with a season high of just 4.2, and a career GB% of 62.5%.

Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins +4000

The Twins righty had quietly put together an ace season in 2024 before going down with a shoulder injury on August 7th and not making it back to the mound. He finished with a 3.60 ERA and .99 WHIP in 23 starts over 135 IP's with a 27.3% K%, 12.3% SwStr% and microscopic 4.3% BB%. ERA estimators suggested he was even better than his surface numbers as he had an xERA of 2.87 and SIERA of 3.28. This is a play on his health, but that is the case for pretty much the whole board. Still, we get an ace-level pitcher at +4000

Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins +10000

Ober was a very trendy SP in NFBC Main Events last season, and then opened the campaign with a 1.1 IP, 9-hit, 8-ER strafing by the Royals. If I conveniently delete that outing, he pitched to a 3.60 ERA and 0.95 WHIP the rest of the way, with a 21.3% K-BB% backed by an excellent 14.4% SwStr%.

He carries big risk in real life as an extreme fly ball pitcher. He has a career 20.0 LA. That helps the WHIP but runs the obvious risk of the long ball. At this price, though, I feel like you get monster odds on a near-ace pitcher that just needs to keep the ball in the yard a bit better, or at least keep them as solo shots.

RotoWire is a one-stop shop for all MLB player futures with updated odds on Cy Young, MVP and more.

NL Cy Young Odds

Paul Skenes (+300)
Zack Wheeler (+750)
Chris Sale (+800)
Blake Snell (+1000)
Corbin Burnes (+1200)
Dylan Cease (+1600)
Tyler Glasnow (+1700)
Spencer Strider (+2200)
Michael King (+2200)
Hunter Greene (+2200)

How does Paul Skenes not win this? Well, injuries are always an unfortunate factor with considering any of these arms on a bet that won't be settled until seven months from now. I am not wishing that on him at all, but I would just point out that last year's easy NL frontrunner went down for the season in the middle of his second start. More on him below. But here are a few longer shot bets to consider.

Check the updated NL Cy Young odds all season long here at RotoWire.

Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers +1700

It does not take much to construct the bullish case here; just stay healthy. Unfortunately, Glasnow has never managed that. The 134 innings he tossed in 2024 marked a career high. When he can stay on the mound, he deals. Glasnow pitched to a 3.49 ERA/0.95 WHIP with a 32.2% K% and 13.8% SwStr%. To the extent Wins still matter in this discussion, he could get a bunch on the Dodgers, though he only managed 9 in 2024.

Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves +2200

The once and future Braves ace was the heavy Cy Young favorite heading into 2024. He will miss roughly the first month of the season recovering from the Internal Brace (don't call it Tommy John) procedure. So Strider will necessarily see a lighter workload.

ATC projects 110 innings for Strider. Is that enough to win the Cy Young? Probably not, though Skenes came close in just 133 innings in 2024. Plus, who knows if he comes back as Peak Strider?

So now that I've almost talked myself out of this bet, what can go right? Well, he has a 36.9% K% for his career. If he can get to 140 IP somehow, he could be in the mix. He's essentially Crochet but at better odds. Yes, Crochet comes in healthier but he has literally zero history of going a full season. I am going to pass on actually playing Strider for the moment, but I think its an interesting shot.

Spencer Schwellenbach, Atlanta Braves +4000

Can any team develop stud pitchers named Spencer S. better than the Braves? Schwelly pitched a grand total of 13 innings above A ball ahead of his MLB debut, then hurled 123.2 innings of 3.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP ball, fully backed up by xERA (3.44) and SIERA (3.42).

He maybe even got a little unlucky as he gave up 14 homers on just 16 barrels (would be about 9 homers at a league average rate. That being said, a 4.7% Barrel% against is inordinately low and a much less consistent skill from year to year than most metrics. That's especially true before a pitcher establishes he actually has contact skills to begin with. But at +4000, I really like the price on a guy on an excellent team who might emerge as a true ace.