This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Picks Today: Wednesday, April 2nd
What a day for baseball. Let's Pick 2!
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Mets vs. Marlins
Over 8.5 -120 BetMGM
On paper, the Marlins have one of the least implosing lineups you will ever see. On the field also. Kyle Stowers with a career .213/.278/.340 triple slash in 360 career PAs bats 2nd. Griffin Conine with a career 28.8% K% will bat 3rd. Matt Mervis and his career wRC+ of 30 hits cleanup. Yikes. And the game is in Miami, a pitchers park.
So how can the over possibly make sense here? Well for one thing, Marlins home overs tend to hit, most likely because everyone knows they field a bad offense in a lifeless cavern and price the odds accordingly. In 2023-2024, the Marlins overs went 90-59,14.56%. Miami's ML for this game is +102, and that bodes well as their overs were 54-18, 41.36% in plus money home games the last two seasons.
They also may have trouble keeping the Mets off the scoreboard. The Marlins' already thin pitching staff is pretty decimated by injuries. Career journeyman Connor Gillespie gets the nod in front of a pretty empty bullpen. He went 5 innings in his first start, yielding 3 runs to a hapless Pirates offense on 4 walks and 4 hits. The Mets counter with Clay Holmes. He looked like an ace in spring as he makes the conversion to full time starter. But in the season opener he labored through 4.2 vs. the Astros and yielded 2 earned runs on 5 hits and 4 walks.
I like Juan Soto and the Mets bats to wake up a bit here. I fully expect the Marlins to end the season as one of the worst offenses in MLB, but very early on they rank more mid pack (88 wRC+) than hideous. The Braves (36 wRC+) and Astros (48 wRC+) are jealous!
Nationals vs. Blue Jays
Under 8.5 (-118 DraftKings)
The Nats will try to avoid a series sweep this afternoon behind their ace, MacKenzie Gore. The Jays counter with 28 year old journeyman Easton Lucas, called for the start to replace Max Scherzer.
Gore was absolutely lights out in his season debut, striking out 13 in 6 innings of work vs. the Phillies while walking none and allowing just 1 hit. Its just one game, but he had a 20.4% SwStr%. The one-time top prospect has shown flashes for the last few seasons, but never quite put it together for a whole campaign as he's never finished a year with a WHIP below 1.40 or an ERA less than 3.90. Walks and the long ball have been the big problems for Gore as he has a career 9.7% BB% and 9.2% Barrel%. So far so good on both fronts!
Lucas has bounced around the league and only accumulated 18.1 innings at the major league level. He saw action for three major league teams in 2024, none of which were the Jays, and he gave up 14 earned runs in 11.2 innings, striking out 10 and walking 9. That is obviously not good, but its likely this becomes a bit of a bullpen game as the Jays do not have a game tomorrow.
Unders hit in the first two games of this series, and I like it again today. Jays home interleague games went 31-22 for a 12.21% ROI in the last 2 seasons, while Nats away interleague unders are 41-21 26.16% back to 2021. I am confident with Gore here, but it's clearly tough to know what we get from the Jays pitching. The Nats do not have a scary offense at the moment, so I will roll with the under.
