This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets: Expert MLB Picks for
Tuesday, September 24
- Year-to-Date Record: 161-162-1
- Prior Article: 1-2 (-2.05 units)
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MLB Betting Tips
MLB SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at starting pitcher (full season) and team (last 30 days) home/road splits and vs. right-handed pitchers/left-handed pitchers splits to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check the weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. When summer temperatures and humidity rise, scoring may see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game. The bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a first five innings (F5) play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution against playing any totals (especially team totals) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an under.
Don't place any wagers on the best online sportsbooks without first making sure you have the most current MLB odds to help you make an informed bet.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1.5 - 2.0 units (Best Bets - typically a full game total or ML/RL play)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
Chicago Cubs 
at Philadelphia Phillies 
I was hoping to go against Taijuan Walker one last time this season, but it looks like the Phillies smartened up and will only use him in relief for today's game. Even without Walker starting, I will still look at the over in this spot with Justin Steele most likely on a short hook. There is no reason for the Cubs to extend his usage in this spot. both teams have been hitting well in the last 30 days.
Tanner Banks, Kolby Allard and then Walker are expected to pitch in this game. The Cubs have a wRC+ of 127 against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. The Phillies have a wRC+ of 121 against left-handed pitching in the last 30 days.
The Cubs have hit the over in 10 out of their last 13 road games. The Phillies are also one of the strongest teams at home and play in a favorable hitters' park.
MLB Picks for Cubs at Phillies
- Cubs/Phillies Over 8.5 Runs for 1 unit (-110 at BetMGM)
Kansas City Royals 
at Washington Nationals 
The Royals have been one of the best stories of the 2024 MLB season and are one game ahead of the Twins for the American League Wild Card spot. Normally, I would have looked at the Royals, especially with Cole Ragans on the mound, but the Royals are just 2-8 in their last 10 games and are not hitting that great.
The Royals have a 67 wRC+ against left-handers and 79 wRC+ against right-handers in the last 30 days. Mitchell Parker and Ragans have been about even since August 1st, so I will look at taking the home underdog against a fading Royals team.
MLB Picks for Royals at Nationals
- Nationals ML for 1 Unit (+145 at BetRivers)
San Francisco Giants 
at Arizona Diamondbacks 
Logan Webb is one of those pitchers I target to back at home and fade on the road because his home park is one of the best pitchers' parks in baseball. His splits prove it with a home/road split of 2.83 ERA/1.03 WHIP at home versus 4.36 ERA/1.46 WHIP on the road.
Brandon Pfaadt had a strong outing his last time out, but his home numbers before that start have been atrocious with a 7.58 ERA and 1.68 WHIP (July 27 to Sept 14).
Arizona is fighting to keep their spot in the National League Wild Card chase and I would expect them to at least score 5-6 runs in this game. The Giants, while not playing for anything, should be able to hit Pfaadt enough to clear the total of 8.0 runs.
MLB Picks for Giants at Diamondbacks
- Giants/Diamondbacks Over 8.0 Runs for 1 Unit (-105 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Cubs/Phillies Over 8.5 Runs for 1 unit (-110 at BetMGM)
- Nationals ML for 1 Unit (+145 at BetRivers)
- Giants/Diamondbacks Over 8.0 Runs for 1 Unit (-105 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
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