This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Woohoo! It's the All-Star break and that means we take a break from betting on baseball games and pivot to...betting on the home run derby! Let's take a look at some wagers and where we should lay some money.
Home Run Derby Bets: OVERALL WINNER
Let's be honest. It's not going to be fun to bet Pete Alonso to win again and his odds (+200) aren't that great. In fact, I'm not sure he gets past Ronald Acuna (+650) in the first round. The long shot that stands out to me is Jose Ramirez (+1500) who looks like he can not only win his first round but has the build to continue to hit home runs and win in the later rounds. I actually prefer Kyle Schwarber (+270) over Alonso overall and obviously the odds are better with Schwarber who has an easier first round matchup.
Home Run Derby Matchups
I hate taking bad odds but Kyle Schwarber (-340) against Albert Pujols is essentially a "give me." Pujols is on the wrong side of 41 and Schwarber has 29 home runs entering the All-Star Break. These are really good odds when you look at the numbers; this is a tough spot for Pujols who should struggle here.
DISTANCE OF LONGEST HOME RUN
OVER Soto vs. Ramirez 467.5 Feet
The wonderful thing about taking the over is that once it hits, you've won. This is the smallest/shortest over/under of the first round matchups and you're placing two young power hitters together who are each capable of smashing this over. Here's my favorite bet of the night.
UNDER Schwarber vs. Pujols 473.5 Feet
I really think this is a one-sided bet as I don't see Pujols hitting the over here or coming close. Therefore, if should be a wager of Schwarber over 473.5 feet which is how I'm approaching this. Unlike Soto/Ramirez, I only see Schwarber being capable of hitting the over which is why I'll gladly take the under here.
Home Run Derby Winner
Ok, I'm redoing this.
So, I don't like taking players to make the finals but here we are. If you want to go the easy route and bet Pete Alonso (+200) and Kyle Schwarber (+330) and hope they meet up at the finals, this is the route to take.
Don't blow the next month's mortgage on this but feel free to have some fun tonight.
