This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Picks Tonight: Expert MLB Bets and Props for Wednesday, Aug. 9
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We've got a full-day slate Wednesday, but I'll be focusing on a pair of the hottest offenses in all of baseball in their respective evening matchups.
Atlanta Braves 
at Pittsburgh Pirates 
Best Bets
The Braves' offense continues to run roughshod over nearly every pitcher put in front of it, with Atlanta's 633 runs ranking as the second most in the NL and third in all of baseball. They'll have a rookie in Quinn Priester in their sights Wednesday, which helps lead to the Braves' status as extremely heavy favorites.
Atlanta has essentially been as successful on the road (34-20) as at home (37-20), and boasts an NL-best 64-33-14 first 5 innings moneyline betting record. Priester has plenty of promise and solid swing-and-miss upside, but he's pitched to an 8.69 ERA and 1.78 WHIP across his first four big-league starts, with the latter number largely influenced by a 6.4 BB/9.
The control issues aren't necessarily new for Priester, who also posted a BB/9 of 3.6 or higher in five other professional stops during his time in the minors, albeit a couple of those instances coming in very small samples. Facing a lineup as dangerous as Atlanta's could certainly lead the rookie to try and paint the corners frequently, and Brian Snitker's squad already comes in with a fairly elevated 9.4 percent walk rate against righties since the All-Star break.
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Priester's opposite number Max Fried looked very effective in his return from the injured list last time out, racking up eight Ks of the free-swinging Cubs over six scoreless innings. While the Pirates are a bit more disciplined than Chicago by the numbers, they're still carrying a 22.4 percent strikeout rate against southpaws since the All-Star break and a 23.3 percent figure for the season.
Fried has recorded at least seven strikeouts in three straight decisions and has a 9.8 K/9 in 17.1 road innings thus far during what has been an injury-shortened season. While he's a solid-but-not-elite strikeout pitcher, he should have a fighting chance of getting to at least six strikeouts, especially with Pittsburgh not much of a threat to chase him considering its .219 average, .594 OPS, .070 ISO, .270 wOBA and -9.7 wRAA versus lefties in the second half of the season
MLB Best Bets for Braves at Pirates:
- Braves- 1st 5 Innings/Moneyline Winner (-150 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Max Fried Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+115 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Quinn Priester Over 2.5 Walks Allowed (+115 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Los Angeles Dodgers 
at Arizona Diamondbacks 
Best Bets
The only offense scarier than Atlanta's is that of the Dodgers, who lead the majors with 642 runs scored and boast a .361 wOBA and 33.1 wRAA in the second half of the season. The original projected run total for this matchup is set as high as 9.5 runs in one sportsbook despite the presence of two solid starting pitchers in Bobby Miller and Merrill Kelly, and a primary reason for that is Los Angeles' explosive array of bats.
Nevertheless, we'll take advantage of an alternate total that mitigates our risk a bit for just a slight bump in price. There's ample reason to believe at least nine runs could be scored between the two squads, especially considering Kelly has been an appreciably more hittable pitcher at home. The right-hander sports just a 3-4 record along with a 3.60 ERA and 1.2 HR/9 across 60 home frames, compared to respective figures of 6-1, 2.77 and 0.9 in those categories in 52 road innings.
Kelly has also notably had trouble with his control at home, posting a 4.2 BB/9 in that split. He faced the Dodgers in his first two starts of the year and surrendered four walks apiece across a total of nine innings. Overall, he's handed out at least two free passes in 12 of 19 starts. The Blue Crew also happens to have an MLB-high 11.3 percent walk rate in the second half of the season, adding to my confidence in Kelly issuing at least a pair of base on balls.
MLB Best Bets for Dodgers at Diamondbacks:
- Alternate Total: Over 8.5 runs (-145 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Merrill Kelly Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (-185 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Wednesday MLB Best Bets Recap:
- Braves- 1st 5 Innings/Moneyline Winner (-150 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Max Fried Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+115 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Quinn Priester Over 2.5 Walks Allowed (+115 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Dodgers-Diamondbacks Alternate Total: Over 8.5 runs (-145 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Merrill Kelly Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (-185 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
