This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets: Free MLB Picks for Saturday, Aug. 12
The big dog Rockies runline was a winner on Thursday. The moneyline upset narrowly missed. 'Twas a good foundation for a nice Saturday card. Let's run it back!
Colorado Rockies (+245) @ 
Los Angeles Dodgers (-300) | Over/Under 9.5
Well, well, well. Is daddy going back to the well? Maybe. In things that surprise nobody, the Dodgers have taken six of the seven games this season from Colorado. The future for the Rockies is bright, especially after bringing in a slew of stud pitching prospects in this summer's draft, headlined by my boy Chase Dollander. However, the future will have to wait. I don't know if Colorado can steal a game in this four-game set, but they might be able to keep it close.
On the hill for the Dodgers is Tony Gonsolin, a guy who has faced major regressions this season after his career year in 2022. With his ERA more than doubled from last season, it's clear Tony G is not the same guy in 2023. Fresh off a six-run beatdown against San Diego, Gonsolin has now allowed at least four earned runs in seven of his last nine starts. If that wasn't bad enough, his home ERA is sitting at a bloated 4.59. With the shakiness of the Dodgers' starter, it's not out of the realm for him to get touched today against a somewhat capable Colorado lineup. Not for nothing, but the Rockies have the same number of homers at home (57) as on the road, so they have a clear path to scoring. Since Gonsolin has allowed a home run in six straight, it's definitely possible.
Colorado is again throwing some real stinkers on the mound. The pitching is a huge problem for them, as they have been resorting to starting relievers and using openers. On the bumpski today is Peter Lambert. Lambert's 5.57 ERA may tell you he gets lit up today, and you might be right. However, his road split that includes a strong 3.41 ERA and .220 OBA could suggest he has a nice showing this evening. He only has three road starts this season across 29 innings, but it's been pretty solid.
Remember the other day I said the best teams in baseball still lose 60+ games because baseball. I don't know if Colorado has what it takes to pull off the upset, but it's worth a sprinkle at the large number. I'm going back to the run line as an official play.
Pick: Rockies run line +1.5 (FanDuel +114)
