This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Last Article's Record: 1-2, -1.00 units
Season Record: 39-44, -2.80 units
Houston Astros at New York Yankees
This is a nice matchup for the Yankees, as Houston pitcher Jose Urquidy hasn't looked great this year, and has probably been the Astros' weakest link. Urquidy has been particularly bad on the road, posting a 6.28 ERA and 1.58 WHIP (compared to a 2.51 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in Minute Maid Park). Meanwhile, Yankees starter Nestor Cortes has arguably been their best pitcher this year, and has been terrific at home, logging a 1.52 ERA and 0.85 WHIP (compared to a 3.03 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in his road starts). While the Yankees bats have been quiet since their big comeback win in the opening game of this series, they are still 30-9 at home and seem to stand a good chance of putting up some runs (based on Urquidy's road splits, if nothing else). Cortes generally pitches somewhat deep into games, and he seems a good bet to leave this game with a lead after a solid six innings or so (with a rested Clay Holmes behind him).
MLB Best Bets for Houston Astros at New York Yankees
- Nestor Cortes to Win +145
Pittsburgh Pirates at Tampa Bay Rays
McClanahan has been simply brilliant this year, allowing two earned runs or fewer in each of his last nine starts. He has also gone six-plus innings in each of his last eight starts, and looks set to do so again with the Rays -245 vs. the visiting Pirates. The Rays have also been much better at home, going 24-15 compared to a 15-17 road record. Meanwhile, the Pirates are only 12-22 on the road. Also note the extreme home/road splits of Pittsburgh starter Roansy Contreras, who has posted a sparkling 0.48 ERA and 1.02 WHIP at home, but also a horrible 5.30 ERA and 1.55 WHIP on the road. Great spot for McClanahan at the coin-flip price.
MLB Best Bets for Pittsburgh Pirates at Tampa Bay Rays
- Shane McClanahan to Win +105
Detroit Tigers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Nothing fancy, just a chance to fade the new Diamondbacks pitcher Dallas Keuchel, who has been absolutely horrific this year, so bad in fact that he lost his rotation spot in Chicago and now finds himself in Arizona. Keuchel has allowed six-plus runs in almost half his starts this year (three of eight), and hasn't looked great in the others either. While the Tigers have been pretty bad this season, they've at least been respectable when facing sub-.500 teams (15-15), and they appear to be showing a little life recently, winners of two in a row thanks in large part to a red-hot Javier Baez. I like their chances vs. the shaky Keuchel.
MLB Best Bets for Detroit Tigers at Arizona Diamondbacks
- Detroit Tigers +105
Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves
Great pitching matchup in Sunday's nationally televised game. This looks like a generous number on Tony Gonsolin, who is actually tied for the major league lead with nine wins. While Gonsolin has always been a good pitcher (five innings worth), he has really stepped up his game this year, recently posting a stretch of six consecutive games with six-plus innings pitched, and of course being the beneficiary of good run support on a consistent basis. Meanwhile, new Braves starter Spencer Strider is capable of throwing exceptional games, but he's been very hit-and-miss as he stretches out into a starter's role, mostly due to walks and the accompanying high pitch counts. While this game can certainly go either way, there's not much debate the Dodgers are the better team overall, and Gonsolin has certainly been more consistent than Strider has. Let's take the almost 2/1 price that Gonsolin can deliver another fine effort and get some decent run support.
MLB Best Bets for Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves
- Tony Gonsolin to Win +190
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
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