We've highlighted some points league MVPs across the last couple articles, but now it's time to get a bit negative. We'll highlight some of the biggest underperformers of the first half, taking into account their preseason ADP as well as the potential for them to turn things around in the final months of the season. With that context, we'll mostly avoid players who have underperformed solely due to injury such as Spencer Strider, Ronald Acuna and Mike Trout. Cases like Bobby Miller are a closer call, but selections were made in the hopes of providing the most actionable advice.
Hitters
C – Sean Murphy 
– ADP around 150
What's gone wrong?: Murphy was drafted as a back-end starting catcher in 12-team formats and was perhaps one of the final starting catchers selected in shallower formats. He missed two months with an oblique strain, muting his overall numbers. Even on a per-game basis he's underperformed though, averaging just 1.9 points per game as opposed to 2.5 in 2023 and 3.0 in 2022. Murphy has also fallen into an alternating start schedule with Travis d'Arnaud, whether due to poor performance or with the intent of protecting him from injury.
Will it get better?: If Murphy can regain something closer to full-time at-bats, that will help his chances of improvement significantly. It's not quite that simple, though. His strikeout rate has jumped to 26.1 percent (career 23.1 percent) as his plate discipline trends in a concerning direction. He's gotten more
We've highlighted some points league MVPs across the last couple articles, but now it's time to get a bit negative. We'll highlight some of the biggest underperformers of the first half, taking into account their preseason ADP as well as the potential for them to turn things around in the final months of the season. With that context, we'll mostly avoid players who have underperformed solely due to injury such as Spencer Strider, Ronald Acuna and Mike Trout. Cases like Bobby Miller are a closer call, but selections were made in the hopes of providing the most actionable advice.
Hitters
C – Sean Murphy – ADP around 150
What's gone wrong?: Murphy was drafted as a back-end starting catcher in 12-team formats and was perhaps one of the final starting catchers selected in shallower formats. He missed two months with an oblique strain, muting his overall numbers. Even on a per-game basis he's underperformed though, averaging just 1.9 points per game as opposed to 2.5 in 2023 and 3.0 in 2022. Murphy has also fallen into an alternating start schedule with Travis d'Arnaud, whether due to poor performance or with the intent of protecting him from injury.
Will it get better?: If Murphy can regain something closer to full-time at-bats, that will help his chances of improvement significantly. It's not quite that simple, though. His strikeout rate has jumped to 26.1 percent (career 23.1 percent) as his plate discipline trends in a concerning direction. He's gotten more passive when seeing pitches inside the zone and is chasing more pitches outside the zone. Perhaps relatedly, his groundball rate has also spiked, which unsurprisingly has caused his ISO to dip. A lot has gone wrong, so it's difficult to project all of it to turn around in the next two months.
1B – Matt Olson – Top-15 ADP
What's gone wrong?: What do Michael Toglia, Nathaniel Lowe and Olson have in common? They're all averaging 2.4 fantasy points per game. Olson is arguably the biggest disappointment in all of fantasy, and the cause is straightforward in that his quality of contact has dipped significantly. His strikeout rate has also jumped, but that's a secondary concern that could be easily overlooked if he were homering.
Will it get better?: Probably, but don't expect a repeat of 2023. Prior to last year, he had surpassed 3.5 fantasy points per game in a season just once. Quality of contact is descriptive rather than predictive, so we can expect a move back toward his career norms, but those norms aren't as good as 2023 led us to believe.
2B – Gleyber Torres 
– Top-85 ADP
What's gone wrong?: A lot of Torres' profile has actually trended in the right direction, yet he's averaging just 2.1 fantasy points per game. The problem has been his inability to hit anything but a fastball. So far in 2024, he has just a .183 wOBA against breaking pitches and a.160 wOBA against offspeed pitches.
Will it get better?: Torres doesn't have a history of being completely baffled at anything with a wrinkle, and the rest of his profile remains within his career norms. Assuming the Yankees don't upgrade at second base, Torres should be a good bounce-back candidate.
SS- Oneil Cruz 
- ADP around 60
What's gone wrong?: Cruz's strikeout remains very high, which limits his value in points leagues.
Will it get better?: If we break down the first half into smaller segments, it already has. In the last 28 days, he's averaged 2.9 fantasy points per game, half a point more than his season-long number. That's backed up by a decreased strikeout rate, but Cruz will remain a better roto/category fantasy option barring a significant change in skill.
3B – Nolan Arenado 
– ADP between 60 and 75
What's gone wrong?: Arenado has been unable to hit for power.
Will it get better?: Probably not. Arenado's exit velocity and barrel rate have fallen significantly compared to his career norms. He may rebound, but in his age-33 season, we've already seen the best of his career. What's made things worse is that he is still hitting the ball in the air at a high clip, but those flyballs are easy outs due to his worsened quality of contact.
OF – Corbin Carroll 
- ADP inside the top five overall
What's gone wrong?: Pretty much everything. Carroll has been talked about enough that most will understand he's completely lacked power, but one particularly troubling statistic is his 26.1 percent infield flyball rate. For a player who already doesn't lift the ball enough to be a particularly strong source of power, a high percentage of his flyballs are turning into easy outs.
Will it get better?: It's premature to panic on Carroll in the long term, but it is fair to question how valuable he'll be in points formats for the rest of the year. In 1,148 career plate appearances, Carroll has a 6.1 percent barrel rate and a .185 ISO. He supplements those marks substantially in roto/category formats with his stolen bases, but that's less valuable in points leagues.
OF – Julio Rodriguez 
- ADP inside the top three
What's gone wrong?: A lot of Rodriguez's skills have marginally worsened this year, most importantly his strikeout and walk rates as well as his flyball rate. That's combined to produce one of the most disappointing first halves from an individual player this season.
Will it get better?: Of all the players on this list, Rodriguez is one I'd have the most confidence in. There are no obvious red flags relative to his more productive stretches and his expected stats all indicate his current skillset should have produced better results, highlighted by a .276 xBA, .454 xSLG, and .336 xWOBA.
Starting Pitchers
SP – Luis Castillo - ADP inside the top 35
What's gone wrong?: Castillo has struggled to get swings and misses. His K% is currently 24.3, his lowest mark since 2021 and one of the lowest of his career. Castillo still has a 3.72 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, so it's hard to be too upset with his first half. On the other hand, he's averaging around 13 points per start, 2.5 points fewer than each of his last two years. That illustrates the importance of strikeouts in points leagues.
Will it get better?: The biggest concern is that Castillo's fastball velocity has dipped, as has his ability to generate whiffs with the pitch. He's a notoriously slow starter, though his strikeout rate in June was his lowest of the season. Castillo has a good floor so this isn't a sell-low scenario, but he doesn't look likely to hit the peaks of 2022 and 2023.
SP – Pablo Lopez 
- ADP inside the top 40
What's gone wrong?: Home runs. Lopez has given up 1.6 HR/9 this season as opposed to his career mark of 1.1. That's come from both a heightened flyball rate and HR/FB%.
Will it get better?: It's not a satisfying answer for those who drafted Lopez as their ace, but his struggles have bad luck written all over them. Regressing his HR/FB% to league average points to that, as does his 65.5 LOB% and 3.43 xERA. The bad luck may continue for the rest of 2024, of course, but that should create a good buy-low chance in the 2025 draft season.
SP – Kevin Gausman 
- ADP inside the top 50
What's gone wrong?: Gausman's story is similar to that of Castillo but takes a more concerning turn. He's also experienced decreased velocity, but that's made him more hittable in the strike zone, in turn causing more hard contact against him.
Will it get better?: Probably not this year. Gausman suffered a shoulder injury during spring training and that could be an issue that is still plaguing him. Interestingly, he shifted his mechanics before his start Friday and noted the tweaks would allow him to be in the zone more regularly. Walks haven't been an issue for him, so he may been referring more to his command inside the strike zone. There's the potential for the quality of contact against him to regress if the mechanical shift is repeatable.
