This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: MLB Wild Card Picks and Props for Wednesday, October 2
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2024 Final Regular-Season Betting Record: 15-13 (+0.80 RW Bucks)
2024 Final Regular-Season Props Betting Record: 35-33 (+5.45 RW Bucks)
With the Mets on the precipice of advancing to the next round of the postseason, I'm breaking down why New York should have a good chance to replicate a balanced Game 1 performance that saw meaningful contributions from both its arms and bats.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets Best Bets
The Mets are riding a wave of brief but fairly intense momentum coming into Wednesday's potential series-clinching scenario. They've followed up Monday's 8-7 win over Atlanta that locked in their Wild-Card spot with an 8-4 victory in Game 1 against Milwaukee behind a quality start by Luis Severino, standout work by relievers Jose Butto and Ryne Stanek and very timely hitting that saw New York collectively go 5-for-7 with runners in scoring position.
New York is seemingly in a strong position to close things out on the road Wednesday, as Sean Manaea looks to carry over the momentum from what was arguably a career-best regular season into his first postseason appearance since 2022. Manaea was at his best on the road this past season, posting a 6-3 record, 3.17 ERA and a tiny 0.7 HR/9 across 88 innings. Those numbers even factor in a rough outing against these same Brewers in his final start of the season Friday, when they got to him for six runs (five earned) on seven hits and two walks over 3.2 innings.
While that outing gives me a brief reason to pause, I'll fall back more on Manaea's overall body of work this season and the fact Milwaukee starter Frankie Montas shapes up as a much more vulnerable target for a dangerous Mets lineup. The hard-throwing right-hander finished the regular season with a 7-11 record, 4.84 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 1.4 HR/9. However, he particularly struggled in his home park, where he fashioned a 1-7 mark, 4.95 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.
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Despite their success against Manaea on Friday, the Brewers still posted a 25.9 percent strikeout rate, a .222 average, a .294 wOBA and -a 4.7 wRAA against lefties at home in the second half of the season. Meanwhile, Montas has had particular trouble with a pair of New York's more talented bats in Francisco Lindor and Starling Marte, who are a combined 9-for-20 with two doubles and four walks against him in their careers. Montas' numbers indicate the switch-hitting Lindor could continue to be a problem, as the Brewers starter finished the regular season allowing a .325 average, .963 OPS and .412 wOBA to left-handed hitters at home.
Manaea undeniably also has some landmines to deal with in the Brewers' lineup, but he's been much more reliable overall this season than his former Athletics rotation mate and opposite number. Consequently, I'm molding my betting recommendations around the better starting pitcher missing some bats and prevailing in a game where I see some runs being scored against either starter.
MLB Best Bets for Brewers vs. Mets
- Mets Moneyline (+100 on Caesars Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Over 4.5 Runs - F5 (+116 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-135 on BetMGM) for 1 RW Buck
- Sean Manaea Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+120 on Caesars Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
