This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Expert MLB Picks for Thursday, October 3
Only one Wild Card Series made it to a do-or-die third game. I am a Mets fan. If you told me one series would go the distance because a team leading in the eighth inning could not seal the deal, I would have 100 percent guessed the culprit correctly. Nothing ever comes easily for this franchise. But hey, we have a baseball game today, so you are all welcome. Let's dig in.
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Best Odds
- Mets +112 (BetRivers), Brewers -125 (Caesars)
- Mets +1.5 (-196 FanDuel, Brewers -1.5 (+170 Caesars)
- Over 7.5 (+105 ESPN BET), Under 7.5 (-114 FanDuel)
Matchup
Jose Quintana takes the ball for the Mets. He has pitched spectacularly well down the stretch, with a 0.75 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over his last six starts. He does not strike out many batters, though he did against the Brewers just last Saturday, whiffing nine in an otherwise meh 4.1-inning, five-hit and two-walk outing.
The Brewers counter with Tobias Myers, a success story from this franchise that has a knack for turning unexciting arms into effective pitchers. He pitched to a sparkling 3.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP on the season, though with a SIERA of 3.93 which suggests his topline numbers overestimate his talent. His 22.3 percent strikeout rate and 6.3 percent walk rate marks are both fine, as are his batted ball metrics with a 7.7 percent barrel rate and 38.2 percent hard-hit rate.
Neither pitcher will likely stay in the game all that long, but barring a hitting explosion, expect to see more of Quintana than Myers. The Brewer has not lasted more than four innings in any of his last three starts, plus the Brewers have an excellent bullpen. They rank second in MLB with a 3.11 ERA. Even though Milwaukee went to their pen extensively in the first two games of the series, most of their higher-leverage arms have pitched very little over the last week.
The Mets have a more middling pen, with a 4.03 ERA overall that ranks just 17th. Edwin Diaz went 40 pitches on Monday but presumably can go long again today as he has not pitched since then. Is that a good thing? You never know. At his best, no one touches him. But he often has command issues at first. Jose Butto has given the Mets great work out of the pen in the second half of the season and pitched two scoreless innings on Tuesday. Ryne Stanek looked electric in each inning of both gams he pitched. Beyond that, though, the Mets do not have the depth of quality arms like the Brewers. They will need more from Quintana than Milwaukee does from Myers.
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Best Bets
Brice Turang to Record a Stolen Base (+320 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Mets just can not get Turang out (5-for-8 this series). He will almost certainly look to steal as he had 50 bags this season. The downside is that Turang will likely bat ninth vs. lefty Quintana but DraftKings has him at -160 to get at least one hit, so expect him to get a shot on the basepaths at some point.
Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-130 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
How is he just 20? Chourio torched the Mets for two homers last night and the whole league overall with a .310 average and .387 wOBA since the All-Star Break. He will almost certainly bat leadoff, which means a chance for five plate appearances, including possibly three vs. Quintana. His stolen base prop at +370 looks interesting as well.
Prediction
Gotta Support your team. I will say 5-4 Mets. They jump ahead early and then the offense freezes and they hang on for dear life with their often shaky bullpen. Diaz throws his first pitch "just a bit outside", but then settles in and shuts the door.
