Mound Musings: A Look at Pitching in the AL Central

Three divisions down, and three to go. This week, we move to the AL Central to take a look into the crystal ball and search for draft day bargains. I'll continue to throw some names out there for your consideration, covering one division each week. When the dust settles, we should be looking at Opening Day, and hopefully have a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2021 season. We're past the halfway point, so let's look at the:

American League Central

Chicago White Sox – White Sox fans could be preparing to celebrate. If not this season, very soon. They have some amazing young talent in the field, and the pitching is getting there, too. Lucas Giolito found his groove and has started pitching like he was expected to pitch when he turned pro. He's now a genuine ace, and I expect it to continue. The team has also mixed in a couple veterans to hopefully boost its playoff chances and possibly help with the kids' development. Sounds like a plan. I actually haven't been a big fan of Lance Lynn or Dallas Keuchel, but they fit very nicely here. Lynn has considerably more value in the fantasy arena, but both should give the Sox a lot of innings in a season where innings will be more important than ever. Two younger arms will likely see quite a bit of time on the South Side this year, too. Reynaldo Lopez and Dylan Cease have both been very inconsistent with command of their secondary pitches, but they also display some very encouraging signs at times. In my opinion, over the long haul, Cease is probably the better bet, but they both need to contribute. Now for the wild card. A couple years ago, I would have listed Carlos Rodon as the No. 2, right behind Giolito, but he missed most of 2019 following Tommy John surgery and then suffered shoulder problems after returning in 2020. If he's back on track, granted a big if, he could be a windfall. There are also two more exceptionally talented kids expected to begin the year in the bullpen, but I think one or both could move into the rotation if needed. I'm buying on Garrett Crochet. A southpaw with jaw-dropping stuff, he has future ace stamped on his resume. I think Michael Kopech, who made just four MLB starts in 2018 before undergoing Tommy John surgery will also join the rotation someday. He missed all of the last two seasons and is being brought back cautiously, but should be on the mound this season as a long man out of the bullpen.

Let me come right out and say it. I love this bullpen. Balance, defined roles and talent all contribute to a great bullpen, and the Sox have it all. They went out and signed the guy I think is the best closer in the game today. Liam Hendriks has awesome stuff, but perhaps more importantly, if there was a recipe for making the perfect closer, his mound presence would be the first ingredient. Now, regarding balance, lefties Crochet and Aaron Bummer, who has really clicked the past couple seasons, would be two of my first choices in a holds league. Matt Foster and Evan Marshall join Kopech from the right side. I like Foster as Bummer's late-inning righty counterpart, but top to bottom, this deck is stacked. If the starters can give them five or six innings, turn off the lights.

Recapping the White Sox:

The arm to roster: If you are hoping for lightning in a bottle, maybe Carlos Rodon.

He'll likely be overpriced: Dallas Keuchel; his price is often too high for me.

Best of the bullpen: Liam Hendriks is the best closer in the game today.

Cleveland Indians – Over the past couple of seasons, the Indians have featured stars like Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger and Carlos Carrasco at the top of their rotation, but no more. They are all gone. That said, the cupboard is not completely bare. For a long time I waffled on Shane Bieber, but he has won me over. His once rather average stuff has improved significantly, and, more importantly, his command of his entire repertoire might possibly be the best in the game. I think Aaron Civale will fill the two spot in the Indians' rotation. He doesn't have great stuff, so his strikeout totals won't be anything special, but he commands a solid repertoire well enough to get deep into games. Not a bad back-of-the-rotation fantasy guy. It looks like Zach Plesac and Triston McKenzie will work from the third and fourth spots. I like Plesac slightly better right now, but McKenzie has the higher upside, and this organization's track record with young arms might make him one to target on draft day. The back of the rotation will be the domain of some pretty lackluster arms. Cal Quantrill is likely the best of a bunch that could include Logan Allen and/or Adam Plutko, but I don't see any of them being fantasy assets. He's only 20 years old but maybe Daniel Espino will see Cleveland at some point this season. He's worth a look, especially in dynasty/keeper formats.

Like the long list of departed front line starters, Brad Hand, who led the league in saves in 2020, is also gone. That means James Karinchak will likely serve as the team's primary closer; at least early on. He has good stuff but iffy command of the strike zone. The guy I really want to see in the ninth inning, Emmanuel Clase, suffered a back injury in 2019, and was then suspended for PED drug usage in 2020. He will need to win some friends and influence a lot of people to earn a shot at closing, but I think it could happen. Beyond Clase, Nick Wittgren is a quality set-up guy, and Oliver Perez fits against lefties, with Blake Parker and Phil Maton also in the mix, but overall, it's a thin pen. 

Recapping the Indians:

The arm to roster: Triston McKenzie has the upside to create value on draft day.

He'll likely be overpriced: Aaron Civale is okay but will likely be overpriced.

Best of the bullpen: I like Emmanuel Clase to eventually claim the closer's gig.

Detroit Tigers –When evaluating the Tigers pitching staff, you have to look at two sides of a coin. What you see today could quite possibly change for tomorrow. Matthew Boyd remains an erratic lefty with lefty inconsistency. I still don't think he should be at the top of your rotation, but if his command improves, he has the tools to be an adequate fantasy starter. Spencer Turnbull lost 17 games in 2019, and while his peripherals weren't that bad, he also lacks command, leading to a lot of baserunners. He doesn't have the repertoire to keep hitters honest without better command, so I think he likely will have a hard time improving. Michael Fulmer returned last season after missing 2019 following Tommy John surgery. He struggled and hasn't looked sharp since his somewhat promising debut in 2016. There is some chance of improvement, but I don't think he's the pitcher for whom they hoped. And, there is one more veteran vying for a spot. I have seen hints of upside in Jose Urena, and I think he could end up being the best of today's veterans, but he still needs better command of his secondary stuff. Now, have faith, tomorrow is another, and probably better, day. The best hopes for Tigers' fans could be in the arms of three kids. Matt Manning and Casey Mize are both blue-chip pitching prospects, and Tarik Skubal is only a step behind them. Both of the first two are legitimate top-of-the-rotation prospects. Mize is slightly ahead of Manning, and will likely begin the season in the rotation, with Manning joining later this year. I like Manning a bit better, but they are both worthy of consideration, especially in keeper/dynasty formats. Skubal isn't quite at their level in my opinion, but he has a lively fastball and just needs more consistent secondary stuff to eventually lock down the three spot in the rotation.

Overall, this is a pretty shaky bullpen. For a few seasons, Joe Jimenez was the "Tigers' closer of the future" but he's been given chances, and his results haven't been very good. Buck Farmer has seen quite a bit of the eighth-inning work, but I don't see him as the answer. Other than those two, the lukewarm (generous) choices for late-inning work would include Jose Cisnero and/or lefty Gregory Soto. One other possible sleeper would be Urena. If things don't pan out in the rotation, he actually profiles pretty well as a potential closer. If I had to name a favorite for the job, it would probably be Soto, but the Tigers have a new manager, and this spring could be seen as open auditions.

Recapping the Tigers:

The arm to roster: I'm waiting for Matt Manning. He has the highest ceiling.

He'll likely be overpriced: Spencer Turnbull has a following, but I'm skeptical.

Best of the bullpen: Today, probably Gregory Soto, but stay tuned.

Kansas City Royals – Not unlike the Tigers, the Royals are, in many ways, experiencing a changing of the guard in their rotation. They have added veteran lefty Mike Minor, but in recent years, guys like Jakob Junis and Danny Duffy were at the top of this list. Now, Junis is in the mix for the fifth starter spot with Kris Bubic, and Duffy slides in as the No. 4. He can still be a decent starter when he's healthy and on track, but he has had chronic injury issues, and they seem to prevent him from ever getting into a good rhythm. The one member of the staff I have been modestly touting the past couple years is Brad Keller, and while he's not an ace, he's the top name here. The former Rule-5 pick has steadily improved his game, and I don't think he's done yet. Behind Keller is Brady Singer. He's probably a back-of-the-rotation option for fantasy teams right now but he could potentially help in deeper leagues, and there's a lot of upside as he develops. Further, there is more help on the way. The Royals have gone after pitching in the draft over the past couple years, and one or two of their top prospects could find their way to Kansas City as early as later this summer. Asa Lacy leads this group. Their first-round pick in 2020, Lacy is a lefty with a very high ceiling who may only need a short stint in the minors to be ready. Similarly, Jackson Kowar and Daniel Lynch are close to seeing time with the Royals. All three are worthy of consideration, again especially in keeper/dynasty leagues.

The Kansas City bullpen enjoyed a renaissance of sorts for 35-year-old Greg Holland, and he'll probably see the lion's share of save opportunities as long as he serves up positive results. He looked good last year after a couple seasons that saw his command slip. If that happens again, look for Josh Staumont to get a look as the closer. He has a huge arm but still lacks command. The Royals converted him to relief work, and the move certainly made an immediate difference. Scott Barlow returns as a primary set-up guy, with Jesse Hahn and Jake Newberry hoping to get leads into the late innings.

Recapping the Royals:

The arm to roster: Either Brad Keller or Brady Singer could take a step forward.

He'll likely be overpriced: Jakob Junis doesn't have the necessary stuff to excel.

Best of the bullpen: Greg Holland if his resurgence lasts. Monitor him closely.

Minnesota Twins – The Twins caught the White Sox at the end of 2020 to win the AL Central, and this season looks like it could be another race to the wire between those two. Both teams have solid rotations, but I'll give the edge to Minnesota and their ace, Kenta Maeda. I thought moving from the NL West and Dodger Stadium might hurt his peripherals, but it wasn't so. He was nothing short of spectacular, and while matching his 2020 performance won't be easy for him, I do anticipate another strong season. I've been patiently waiting for Jose Berrios to lace up the elite shoes, and this could be the year. He's already a young leader on the staff, but I am convinced there is still growth to come. I'm a buyer. The pitching will certainly be deeper and considerably stronger if they keep Michael Pineda on the mound (he missed more than half of last season, serving a suspension), and with the addition of newcomer veteran lefty J.A. Happ. His numbers probably won't dazzle you, but he's a winner on a team that can win a lot of games. That's a very good top four, and looking at the five slot, while I'm not a huge fan of either pitcher, both could be functionally productive if things go right. The oft-injured righty Matt Shoemaker is first in line, but he hasn't exceeded 100 innings in a season since 2016. I'm not sure I see him on my fantasy rosters, and if you do, I think an insurance policy might be in order. For the Twins, that will likely be Randy Dobnak, but you can do better than that. I do like top pitching prospect Jordan Balazovic, but he's probably at least a year or more away from the big leagues.

The Twins' bullpen could again be a closer by committee, but I think the best arm in the pen, Taylor Rogers, will end the season with the most saves on the staff. That said, the bullpen as a whole looks pretty good. They just signed Alex Colome who has plenty of closing experience and will surely see some ninth-inning work, but can also serve as an excellent set-up guy. They will miss Trevor May, but another arm with some closing experience (23 saves with the Angels in 2019), Hansel Robles, and Tyler Duffey should provide a solid bridge to the late innings.

Recapping the Twins:

The arm to roster: Jose Berrios and Kenta Maeda, too. I'll take them both.

He'll likely be overpriced: I'm staying away from Matt Shoemaker. Too risky.

Best of the bullpen: Taylor Rogers gets a slight edge over Alex Colome.

Next week, we'll look at the NL East.