Mound Musings: My 2023 Home League Pitching Staff

Readers often ask about my own pitching staffs in the various fantasy leagues in which I compete. So, having just recently completed this year's auction in my primary or "home" league, I thought I might take this opportunity to discuss the pitching staff with which I will go to war. I will add that I typically focus very heavily on a few arms, so many of these guys pitch on several of my teams.

A little background:

This league has been in existence for a very long time. This will be my 32nd season, and most of the league's owners have been members for 20-plus years. It started in my hometown, but owners have gradually dispersed all over North America, and we usually all come back for draft day. However, I have dealt with some mobility issues (getting old sucks), and travel has become a challenge for some of the far-flung owners, so we hold the draft online. These guys are savvy, experienced, and they are pretty familiar with the tendencies of the other owners. It's a challenging group, but that makes it fun!

With 15 teams, it is a mixed league keeper with deep rosters (33 players per team with no minor league or disabled list slots). Standard scoring categories, five hitting and five pitching, with a lineup consisting of 12 hitters and nine pitchers (with a minimum of five qualified starting pitchers and two qualified relief pitchers). One thing that makes roster management more challenging – picking up a free agent requires a "move" usually from a player being sent down or put on the injured list. You can then release that player and pick up someone on the waiver wire (order is determined by reverse order of the current standings). Since you probably won't want to cut a key player who goes on the IL for a short time, you really need versatility and some productivity on your bench. 

So, let's look at my pitching staff, and discuss my thoughts on who and why:

• SP1 Julio Urias – Urias is one of several on this staff who have occupied the penthouse suite of my elite kids list. He has worked through injuries that delayed his development, but he put it all together the last couple years, going 38-10 since 2021 with a sub-3.00 ERA, great ratios, and a solid strikeout rate. I don't think he has peaked quite yet, so he gets the No. 1 designation on this year's staff. It's funny, he has accomplished so much on a team that is always in the spotlight, yet it sometimes seems he is a bit overlooked in fantasy circles. The Dodgers tend to watch his workload, but he should still provide significant value.
• SP2 Alek Manoah – It's a keeper league and I was fairly happy with the nucleus of my starting rotation, but felt I needed to keep one more "pricey" top-of-the-rotation starter, and Manoah was the guy. The AL East is no picnic, but I think the Jays offense should give him ample run support so he checked all the boxes. I have to admit, watching his first start against the Cardinals made me a bit nervous. He looked healthy, the velocity was okay, but he wasn't really putting hitters away, and his command wasn't as consistent as I would like to see. I found myself wondering if the new pitch clock was affecting him, or perhaps he's still getting into mid-season form. I'm not seriously worried, at least not yet.
• SP3 Carlos Rodon – Rodon is opening the 2023 season on the injured list. I suppose that's not terribly surprising given his reputation as an injury risk.  However, after missing a lot of time in 2019-20, he took regular, albeit pretty strictly monitored, turns in 2021, and chipped in just under 180 innings last year. And, since getting healthy, he has sparkled. He has it all, a big arm, a lot of movement, a wipeout slider and the ability to consistently miss bats. Health risk is nothing new to me, and I actually extended his very favorable contract this spring. If he can return soon, and stay on the mound taking a regular turn all year, the upside is enormous. Keep your fingers crossed.
• SP4 Jack Flaherty – I consider Flaherty one of the major keys to my season. After missing much of the past three seasons with an assortment of injuries including oblique and shoulder woes, he appeared healthy this spring. In my opinion, he has the ceiling of a top 10 starting pitcher, but he has to be sharp. His first start against a tough Toronto team was a disappointment. How can you feel sad about five hitless, shutout  innings you ask? He walked seven and plunked a batter (95 pitches). There were some positives, working his way through all that traffic, but I wouldn't call it "sharp." He needs to build on this outing.
• SP5 Kodai Senga – Maybe we saw a case of the yips early? In his first outing against Miami, Senga was all over the place in the first inning. A couple hits sandwiched in with a pair of walks as his pitch count soared (36), but he managed to escape, allowing just a single run. After that first inning he looked like the pitcher he was in Japan – good command, missing bats, and a huge assortment of pitches including that jaw-dropping, tumbling forkball. It's a pitch you don't see that often these days, and the Marlins hitters underscored that fact. Senga struck out eight in five and a third innings, and I think he finished seven of the eight with the forkball. I'm excited, really excited. If you get a chance, tune in to a future start and watch the variety of pitches. I just hope hitters don't catch on.
• SP6 Noah Syndergaard – Next, I have an SP6 I hope could again be capable of being a SP1. So, mark me down as biased. Before Syndergaard's arm trouble, I liked his stuff as well as that of any pitcher in the game. His fastball velocity was down a couple ticks last year, and he threw more off-speed stuff, but he seemed to be pitching more within himself. I thought we might see a jump this year but his first start was pretty similar. Should I start looking at him like a "finesse" pitcher? Gasp! Well, he's not quite a soft-tosser, but he is relying more on command, and it's working. A huge key is keeping guys off base because he still can't control the running game (and that is becoming a bigger part of the game again).
• SP7 MacKenzie Gore – Here's yet another Kid's List alumnus. I mean it stands to reason. I first saw Gore when he was in high school, and I immediately decided he was destined to pitch for me. I have had to be patient. He was selected in the first round in the 2017 draft out of high school, and he was making good progress before the injuries set in. His progress was slowed, but I still saw flashes of that great potential. I anxiously watched his first start this year and I was generally happy with it. He struggled with command of his off-speed offerings at times, but he was around the zone, and with his stuff that's all he needs. Can he be what he promised years ago? I'm betting he can.
• RP1 Jordan Romano – I was projecting Romano as a top-tier closer a couple years ago, and the Blue Jays made me nervous for a while. First, they landed Kirby Yates, but he blew his arm out. Then, they briefly tried (really?) Julian Merryweather, but he also ended up hurt. It was almost like they wanted to be sure Romano didn't close games. I think we are beyond that now. He has successfully closed out game after game for Toronto, and I feel like he is now a top-tier closer and a bullpen anchor for the foreseeable future.
• RP2 Andres Munoz – Munoz is the definition of closer-in-waiting, and I think the waiting may be over. He has an electric power arm, and his command continues to improve. As long as he stays in or close to the strikezone, he is pretty much unhittable. His ascent to a fulltime closer role has been slowed by the depth of the Mariners bullpen, most notably Paul Sewald, but if he hasn't quite claimed the gig on an everyday basis, he's close.
• RP3 Liam Hendriks – Long one of my favorite pitchers, Hendriks was diagnosed with non-Hodgkin lymphoma this past offseason. That's certainly a very scary situation. I drafted him in every league this spring, maybe as much as anything in support of his efforts to beat the disease and get back on the mound. He actually does not have the usual overpowering stuff of a closer, that's true, but he does have a closer's bulldog mentality, and that is extremely important. Like Yogi Berra famously said, "Baseball is 90 percent mental, and the other half is physical." In the case of closing games, that is more true than you may know.
• FLEX – this could be a SP7/8 or RP3/4 – Yusei Kikuchi, Cal Quantrill, Walker Buehler, Ricky Tiedemann, Carl Edwards and Ben Joyce – This is the "bench strength" of my mound corps, so keeping the regulars on the mound is obviously the key to my season. By the end of the draft, pitching was a veritable wasteland, and I filled in with what was available. For the most part these aren't bad pitchers, I just don't know how fantasy relevant they will be. I like Kikuchi a bit, but he needs to prove he has arrived. Tiedmann is a nice young arm, and both Edwards and Joyce could figure into the saves mix for their respective teams if all the pieces fall into place. Time will tell.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• Mets starter Carlos Carrasco actually laid the blame for a poor first outing with reduced velocity on the pitch clock. Most pitchers aren't calling the pitch clock a problem but a lot of pitchers with normally good command struggled mightily in the first week. I think more pitchers than we know are struggling to adjust.
• I was impressed with the first couple innings by Oakland's Shintaro Fujinami. He was pouring in strikes and fanned four in two innings. Then I think they secretly switched pitchers. He was awful in the third inning (just one hitter retired before he was lifted) and left me wondering, which one was the real Fujinami?
• One of the hotter draft pitchers as we approached Opening Day this season was Hayden Wesneski of the Cubs. I based my evaluation on last year and considered him a bit too hittable and best suited to fill a swingman role. I watched his first start against the Reds and pretty much confirmed that assessment.
• Another pitcher I was anxious to see was Toronto's Jose Berrios. Last year he really struggled with his command and seemed to be pressing at times. There were some positive signs later in the season so I wanted to see him this year. Unfortunately, it was more of the same. A weak Royals team shellacked him.

Endgame Odyssey:

One of the topics most discussed here on the Musings is potential sources for holds, saves, or even just quality relief innings. We have identified quite a few closers in waiting over the years, many before they were even on most fantasy radars. I thought this might be a good time to list my watch list in case readers are looking for good arms to stash. It's unlikely they will all end up closing, but it only takes one, right? The list comprises pitchers I have  watched for some time, and they are already (or soon will be) getting high-leverage innings, but any of them could be considered.

1. Evan Phillips – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Matt Brash – Seattle Mariners
3. Bryan Abreu – Houston Astros
4. Matt Moore – Los Angeles Angels
5. Erik Swanson – Toronto Blue Jays
6. Jonathan Loaisiga – New York Yankees
7. Drew Pomeranz – San Diego Padres
8. Brooks Raley – New York Mets
9. Garrett Cleavinger – Tampa Bay Rays
10. Carl Edwards – Washington Nationals