Mound Musings: The Pain. The Pain.

Baseball has changed. Okay, I'm an old-timer, and I played in a different era, but I learned to play baseball differently. I want to discuss how the changing landscape of the game is impacting fantasy. In some ways the changes are fairly discreet, but in other ways I find myself adjusting my pitcher evaluations, and that takes quite a lot of influence. This might be a bit meandering, but it's worth a shot, so let's go.

Defense makes a BIG difference: Regular readers know I frequently talk about things that can increase or decrease the value of a pitcher or pitchers. One thing I take into consideration, but haven't discussed as much, is defense. It's not often a fantasy scoring category, but it does have an impact on your pitching performance. And, with the offense-first approach in today's game – guys who really should only DH are frequently being squeezed into lineups on a daily basis – so it's becoming even more important.

I have always given a little extra credit to pitchers who work in front of a good defensive team, and conversely, slightly downgraded those who have the liability of a lesser defense. Believe it or not, these days I find myself actually avoiding pitchers on teams with not just weak, but horrible defense. There are more examples than you might think, but I'll focus on one team. I have often owned Aaron Nola, but I have no Phillies starting pitchers on my teams in 2022. The Phillies have a terrible outfield, made worse by their best defender (Bryce Harper) being forced to DH because of an injury. Kyle Schwarber is one of the worst I have ever seen, and Nick Castellanos is almost as bad. The infield, as a whole, isn't much better. It's like a ticking time-bomb for their pitchers.

And, remember, it's not just the errors. In fact, with the wildly inconsistent official scoring, non-error fielding gaffs are more damaging. How many times have you watched an outfielder break the wrong way on a relatively routine fly ball and have it sail over his head into the corner. A double? Triple? Did it open the flood gates and contribute to a disastrous inning where all the runs were earned? Ouch. Sure, poor fielding plays have always been a part of the game, but not with today's frequency.  

What happened to fundamentals: That's what they used to call them. I think they still do, but for some reason they aren't practiced like they once were. I won't belabor this point, but does anyone feel like players are lacking in the fundamentals of the game?

We're talking basics here. Failure to even glance at a third base coach when running the bases resulting in easy outs. Throwing to the wrong base. Neglecting to back up a play at a base or the plate. Pitchers forgetting to cover first on a ground-ball to the first baseman. Very basic. Young players were drilled on these basics so they became second nature. I guess they don't do that anymore.

The young pitching prospect conundrum: I would venture to say no one enjoys more evaluating young, developing pitchers. I love it. I love watching. I love discussing. I often plan my viewing schedule several days in advance when a young arm I have been tracking is scheduled to pitch. For decades I have maintained a list of my favorite pitching prospects, massaging and revising the list on the fly. Without question, one of the most frequently asked questions here is, "What can we expect from …?"

Even that question is becoming ever harder to answer. It's not because I don't have an opinion. It's because I frequently have to rely on a small, insufficient sample size. There are exceptions, but the vast majority of pitchers need time (and innings) to develop, Maybe it's cleaning up mechanics to lock in a release point, or maybe it's learning or refining a third or fourth pitch to expand the arsenal. Long term success at the MLB level requires a finished product on the mound, and we aren't getting that very often.

It has actually become harder to maintain my kids list. There are still plenty of high upside/high ceiling arms, but in today's game, if you show you can throw a fastball in the upper 90s, you get a ticket to the big club – do not pass go, collect way more than $200. Should you add a pitcher to your fantasy roster based on potential alone? In most cases I would say no. A two-pitch pitcher with erratic command, regardless (almost) of the quality of those two pitches will struggle to succeed as a starting pitcher. That's why when I do see a guy with a full repertoire of quality pitches and a demonstrated ability to throw strikes come along, I perk up. Unfortunately, for many, even most, young pitchers, they arrive too early for that to be a reality. I guess patience really is a virtue.

I know you'll ask, so here is a brief list of some pitchers I really like, but whom I consider very risky plays at this stage of their development:

• Josiah Gray – Nationals
• George Kirby – Mariners
• Taylor Hearn – Rangers
• Matthew Liberatore – Cardinals
• Nick Lodolo – Reds
• Roansy Contreras – Pirates
• Ethan Small – Brewers
   

Jumping up on the soapbox: I rarely get on a soapbox. I walk around them, perhaps even sit on them to take a rest, but today I am going to climb up and speak out. Yes, these are the author's opinion, but I think others might be in agreement.

Unfortunately (I think) I am not on the rules committee. That means we, as members of the fantasy community, will have to adjust, I don't mind the universal DH, at least teams can hide one fundamentally unsound poor fielder. I will say I abhor the fake baserunner on second base in extra innings. Sorry, in my eyes that isn't baseball, and losing a save from my closer through no fault of his own irks me to be sure. Next season they are apparently going to ban defensive shifts. Fundamentally grounded players would have made shifts impractical immediately. A  line up with no defensive players on the right side? Tony Gwynn or Rod Carew would have hit .600, LOL.  I love baseball.

There you have it – a few thoughts on what to watch for, who to watch and sometimes overlooked factors to consider when evaluating pitching choices for our fantasy teams.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• Near the top of my list of disappointments is Toronto's Jose Berrios. He can look so good for stretches but always seems to punctuate those stretches with a major mistake. It's very frustrating knowing top-of-the-rotation stuff is there and could surface at any time. All you can do is keep sending him out there.
• I had a chance to watch Reds' young fire-baller Graham Ashcraft recently. As advertised, he has plenty of arm, frequently touching triple digits. He doesn't miss enough bats, though. His secondary stuff was erratic, and hitters were clearly ignoring anything off-speed and sitting on his fastball. He's one to monitor.
• The Twins' Dylan Bundy has returned to mediocrity (that's generous). He was roughed up by a Tigers team that has been struggling to score recently, and there was really nothing to suggest there will be better days ahead. With all their injuries, the Twins need someone to step up, but Bundy is unlikely to help.
• Stephen Strasburg is inching closer to a return to the Nationals rotation, and his last rehab outing might be considered a positive sign. He didn't allow a hit over five innings and is scheduled to make his next start at Triple-A. I would expect him back soon, and given his past production, a flyer could be warranted.
• I mentioned a few guys with higher ceilings who may not be quite ready yet, but the Rays' Shane Baz is getting close to returning from the elbow problems he experienced this spring, and he could be productive as soon as he steps on the mound. He checks all the boxes and is likely to perform at a high level.
• I've been increasingly concerned with the Dodgers' Julio Urias lately. The command just isn't quite there, his breaking pitches aren't as crisp as they have been, and because of it, he's not missing bats like I would expect. Hopefully he is completely healthy and just working through a normal down-cycle.

Endgame Odyssey:

The Mariners have Ken Giles out on a rehab assignment. It's been a long time since he's been on a MLB mound, but if he still has it, he could pretty easily work his way into high-leverage innings, maybe even save chances. You don't hear a lot about the Nationals' Tanner Rainey, but he has pretty much removed any doubts about who is the team's closer. Unfortunately, they don't provide him with many save chances. I don't think Houston's Ryan Pressly is completely healthy yet. He has been shaky, and his velocity is still down a couple ticks. They will likely stick with him as he builds up as long as he shows progress. I'm just thinking out loud here, but we're seeing Philadelphia's Seranthony Dominguez pitch in more and more critical situations. I'm pretty sure it's because he generally gets opposing hitters out. I wonder if he could eventually see some save chances? In the right place at the right time category, Miami's Dylan Floro is still working his way back to full health after suffering shoulder woes, and Anthony Bender has been inconsistent, opening the door for Cole Sulser. I still think Floro could eventually be the best option, but Sulser is getting a chance to prove me wrong.