Mound Musings: Their Stock Is on the Rise

Not too surprisingly, this year, it seems like there has been even more (than usual) erratic pitching results. Some pitchers have enjoyed success, which often leads to decisions on whether they should be added to your fantasy targets. Even good teams with the very best pitching are sometimes shaking their heads. Although they start with good beginnings, many arms won't post long-term value as the hitters get in sync and get into hitting grooves. However, some pitchers will actually dominate. They are planning on having stellar years and so should you.

That said, I would like to feature a few relatively obscure pitchers who have seriously impressed me with solid numbers and/or future potential at this early point in the season. This is a mix of young and old, kids and veterans, trying to convince me they are fantasy stars. Every year a handful of pitchers break through with a first career year, and early returns suggest these might be some of the more likely candidates.

You might consider aggressively pursuing these arms:

Nick Lodolo (Reds) – Here's one I have been touting for a long time. Lodolo is quickly making a name for himself, and that's not easy when injuries have piled up. Analysts talk him up after a good outing, but often speak in hushed tones after a bad one. His last outing, against Miami, was a bit soft, pushing his ERA up to a still sharp 2.79. He consistently throws quality strikes but can be prone to the long ball. The Reds don't field the best defense in the league, but that hopefully won't haunt him. Lodolo features a nice, moving fastball, but I love that curveball. And, like most kids the occasional meltdown is always possible, but I like where he's going.

Tyler Mahle (Rangers) – I wanted to include a veteran pitcher here but I couldn't decide between Mahle and Andrew Heaney.  Mahle finally got the nod. He has a microscopic ERA of 0.68 and an 0.83 WHIP through five starts, and they look legitimate. But what tipped the scales was seven shutout innings against the dangerous Dodgers in his last start. He's no flamethrower. He works off a 91-92 mph fastball, mixing in a money splitter, a curve and a tighter slider (it can sometimes be hard to tell them apart). Add in a little deception and a consistently improving strike rate, and you have a potential fantasy contributor. I think he's gotten the hang of it, having tossed hints in 2024, and following that up with being even better so far this season.

Nick Pivetta (Padres) – When we discuss Padres starting pitching, the discussion almost always starts with Michael King and/or Dylan Cease. Then, digging deeper Yu Darvish is sure to come up. They are certainly worthy of discussion, but you know what? There is another guy outperforming them all. His name is Nick Pivetta. After seasons living in the line of fire in places like Fenway Park, he has moved to pitcher-friendly Petco Park. He can throw strikes at will, and because he is nearly surgical, I expect his .241 BABIP to survive. He has a nice lively fastball, but his ticket to success is a very good curve and sweeper. He prefers to establish the top of the zone with his four-seamer, then look for swinging misses with the breaking stuff. Those fastballs do sometimes drift high out of the zone, creating "easy takes" so he does need to avoid that.

Brady Singer (Reds) – Singer is the picture of inconsistency. When he's on, he's hard to beat, but when he's off his game, he's a slug. That sounds risky, but I think he might be settling in and may be due for a stretch of dominance. He wasn't able to have competent streaks while with the Royals, but I'm labeling him a "changes in latitudes" candidate. He has a nice pitch mix, but he's something of a sinker/slider specialist, throwing them with a four-seamer. The biggest fear is the big inning. It's not uncommon for him to be untouchable for a couple innings, then lose it briefly, walking a couple, and allowing a bomb good for three runs. The lapses seem to be happening less and less frequently, and if that trend continues, Singer could actually find himself in discussions related to things like a Cy Young award.

Max Meyer (Marlins) – Recently one of the top names on my kids list, Meyer has seized the opportunity to stand out. He's got very good stuff, but pitches for a popgun offense in Miami. Injuries have been a problem, too. He just broke 100 innings last season, split between the Marlins and Triple-A Jacksonville. Last year he struggled in 10 starts with Miami, but he has looked much better this year. He hit the reset button, sparkling for the most part in his 2025 starts. He has thrown more strikes, missed more bats (he just struck out 14 Reds with no walks over six innings), and kept the ball in the ballpark, earning another look, and I like it. He is living up to the billing this time, and he's worth the ride knowing a bump in the road is likely at some point. I do wish he was pitching for a better team, but I like him going forward. Sweet slider.

Shane Smith (White Sox) – Smith is pitching in MLB for the first time after the Sox plucked him away from Milwaukee in the 2024 Rule 5 Draft. The White Sox aren't very good and have major holes in their rotation. Since Chicago has to keep him on their major league roster or return him to the Brewers, it's likely he will pitch in some role, and so far he's doing a pretty good job of maintaining a spot in the rotation. He has a bit better than average stuff, with a fastball that sits mid 90s and a couple decent breaking pitches. As long as he throws strikes and stays a step ahead of hitters in the adjustment game, he could be moderately useful in fantasy, albeit wins could be hard to come by.

Michael Soroka (Nationals) – Here's a super sleeper I have been following since he broke in with the Braves back in 2018. He tossed a hugely successful season in 2019 (13 wins with a 2.68 ERA), but then the injuries set in. He has had recurring Achilles and shoulder problems, resulting in him not pitching more than 79 in any of the past five seasons. Obviously, durability is going to be a concern, but if he can get healthy and find his pinpoint command, he could be a nice find. His shoulder has been a problem this year, but, if all goes well, he could be on the MLB mound by the end of April. 

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• I was watching a Brewers game the other day, and a track meet broke out as Milwaukee swiped nine bags. However, I was curious about Logan Henderson who ended up tossing six impressive innings with nine strikeouts. He allowed one run but walked just one in his first MLB start, so he's one to monitor.
• Some bad news for the only real veteran of the White Sox starting rotation. Martin Perez has been moved to the 60-day IL. He is reportedly dealing with elbow inflammation after his fastball velocity dropped several miles per hour. The latest announcement indicates he is not expected back this season.
• Okay, Andrew Heaney didn't make the headliners, but he still deserves some attention. The Pirates' left-hander has looked very sharp in his first few starts for new team. Are we looking at another Brent Strom success story? I think it might be the case, as he is displaying better mechanics resulting in better command.
• I watched the Patriot Day game from Boston (I love morning baseball). While his velocity is still a bit down from the good old days, Walker Buehler is getting more and more comfortable with his command. The White Sox aren't known as very scary, but Buehler was missing bats (nine strikeouts in seven innings).

Endgame Odyssey:

Only three weeks into the season and we're already seeing the bullpen shuffle. Over the past week or so we have seen a few "alternate closers" log saves. Workload concerns and lack of quality options for the ninth inning both contributed, and it's likely to continue.  

Liam Hendriks is off the IL and has joined the Boston bullpen. His first outing was ugly, in fact it could be considered an endorsement of Justin Slaten and Aroldis Chapman as the Red Sox closers. He just needs some work. Be patient. Arizona's Shelby Miller hasn't allowed an earned run over 10 innings this season. He also hasn't collected a save, but it's only a matter of time before he gets more ninth-inning work. The Yankees added Devin Williams to their bullpen thinking he could be the anchor, but he has been awful. We've seen Fernando Cruz and Luke Weaver, who would likely step in if Williams needs time away from closing. Stay tuned. Like Williams, Emmanuel Clase is struggling. He has become hittable, which would have seemed impossible just last year. I look for him to be back, as his trouble seems to be mechanical. A month into the season, and my biggest bullpen disappointment to date is Philadelphia's Jordan Romano. He's been way beyond bad. He can't throw strikes, and when he gets one in the strike zone, it looks like T-ball. He should have had a walk into their closer's role.