Farm Futures: November Dynasty Mailbag!

The dynasty rankings were fully updated Monday and I did a mailbag podcast Wednesday to answer some questions related to the update as well as some prospect and redraft questions.

Here's the written version of the mailbag:

Todd Whitestone: If I told you the following Washington Nationals hitters at ADP would all turn out to be bargains, would you think I was wrong and if so by how much? 

I'm sold on Tena being a bargain outside of the top 400, so that's an easy one. He's only eligible at third base, but he could add second base eligibility via starts against lefties when they give Garcia the day off. Tena can capitalize on the Nationals' free-running ways, as he stole six bases in 44 games last year and could realistically go 20/20 at third base via opportunity and team philosophy. I used to think Brady House would be Washington's clear third baseman of the future, but his approach was pretty dismal last year, so I don't think he'll threaten Tena's playing time in the first couple months.

I've adjusted my thoughts on Crews to account for the high stolen-base ceiling he has in this ecosystem (12 steals in 38 games with a .288 OBP last year after stealing 10 bases in 49 games with a .340 OBP at Triple-A). I'm not bullish on Crews as a power hitter or pure hitter as a rookie, but there's no denying the opportunity and stolen-base ceiling. It's not the output anyone expected when Crews was a draft prospect, but if you hope for a .240-.250 average, 15-plus home runs and 35-plus steals with the runs and RBI that come with everyday playing time and some opportunities in the top two spots of the lineup, I don't think you'll be disappointed.

I haven't pulled the trigger on Garcia in any of my six NFBC drafts (two Draft Champions, two 50s, two Gladiators) so far, just because the lesser versions of that middle-infield archetype like Luis Rengifo, Bryson Stott, Andres Gimenez and Maikel Garcia are going three rounds later and it's easier to get the catchers and closers I want if I wait there. That said, I think Garcia is a great auction target, and will return value at his current draft price. The big difference between him and the Stott/Gimenez/Garcia types is that you can bank on Garcia helping your batting average, whereas those others will probably hit around .250. You have to rely on the Nationals' running ways continuing for Garcia to approach the stolen-base output we can project those others for, but I don't see any reason to think he won't give us a similar output to last year.

So you've sold me on the first three at least being values from a projected earned auction dollar standpoint. With Wood, he may return positive value at the back of the third round, but I also see Wyatt Langford with a 77.9 ADP and Lawrence Butler with a 113.6 ADP and immediately lose interest in taking Wood at cost. I would take Wood over Oneil Cruz (38.7 ADP), so it's not that Wood is getting over-drafted per say, I just think there are better values later at outfield and Wood goes in the same area where I'm potentially looking for my first starting pitcher or closer.

Eddy Almaguer: I'm fascinated by Ronald Acuña dynasty ranks in general next year. What are you expecting out of him in 2025 to merit this ranking (No. 14 overall)? Follow up: how does your answer contrast with Steamer's 30/51 .292/.380/.510 projection? Could this be a minor buy-low window?

I'm not sure what to expect from him in 2025, so I guess you could say his ranking stems from a lack of confidence by the ranker (me) in what we'll see from Acuna going forward, and he obviously had to be ranked somewhere. I think Acuna will want to continue to run a lot, but I don't know how much the team will pressure him to dial that part of his game back. I also have no clue how tearing both ACLs is going to affect his athleticism going forward, or how healthy his knees will be or if he'll start suffering other lower-body injuries affected by the kinetic chain. We also got the cryptic comments from Alex Anthopolus in early-October that left the door open for Acuna to miss the start of the season, and then he confirmed Tuesday (Nov. 5) that Acuna won't be ready for the start of the season. That alone is a good reason to take the under on the Steamer projection.

If he doesn't suffer any major injuries over the next three years, I think buying Acuna now will look brilliant, so it's just a question of how risky you think he is going forward and how you like to play dynasty.

L.A. Williams: What would DL Hall (MIL) have to show you to be considered top 500 for dynasty?

I just don't think Hall's a starter or a closer. He's 26 and has never thrown 100 innings in a season as a pro. His stuff has gotten slightly worse as he has dealt with some sort of injury or injuries every season. Even when he's healthy and his stuff is there, Hall's command is often a problem. He's also left-handed, which will lessen his ninth-inning opportunities once the plug gets pulled on him as a starter.

Camposite: Zyhir Hope (LAD) at 148 ahead of Matt Shaw (CHC) at 150 caught my eye, considering the last prospect rankings had Hope well behind Shaw. Are you thinking of Hope as a top 15 prospect now, or did Shaw slide down a bit?

Yes, Hope jumping into the top-15 among prospects was a big development on this update, and nothing has changed with Shaw. Hope kept coming up in conversations when I was in Arizona (and before), but the big change for me was talking about his body with Geoff Pontes of Baseball America on the podcast a few weeks ago. I had been struggling with projecting his body, because he's so thick and muscular, but I'm more comfortable now with just betting on the bat and expecting double-digit steals to still be there into his mid-20s. I've also gotten more comfortable with the quality of the top 400, or lack of quality, which led me to push up Hope because he's got a realistic ceiling and floor that is actually pretty rare in this prospect class. Hope basically hits the ball as hard and with the same high-caliber swing decisions we'd associate with a premium corner-infield prospect, but he also has speed and should provide defensive utility in the outfield.

ProspectVibeCheck: It seems as though there's a cluster of prospects (or guys who lost eligibility) from 263-290, with only a select handful of specs cracking T200 (I think ~11). Is that based on strategic preference or coincidence?

I think you're referencing the tiers I see in the prospect rankings. Here's where the top prospects slotted on the dynasty ranks:

That big cluster you referenced is the start of the big tier of prospects I see from 22 (Samuel Basallo, BAL) to 53 (Kyle Teel, BOS) and ranging from 263 to 340 in the dynasty ranks.

I've mentioned this elsewhere, but this is the first time I've ever produced a set of dynasty rankings where the No. 1 prospect was outside the top 50. On one hand, it's easier than ever to trade for the best prospects in dynasty leagues, but building around premium prospects also seems less viable than ever because there's less certainty/ceiling with the best prospects than there usually is.

SPP: You've got Junior Caminero (TB) and Jackson Holliday (BAL) back to back and I believe that's no change from the previous set of rankings, so it seems their value is holding for you. Can you talk about different scenarios where you'd take one over the other and vice versa depending on team build?

Caminero is a pretty easy player for me to value in dynasty and Holliday is a hard player to value. I see Caminero essentially following the path of Rafael Devers or Austin Riley, where he has a long peak as a four-category force but is never valued as a first rounder in redraft due to the lack of speed and lack of a truly elite batting average.

Holliday has a much clearer five-category ceiling, and a hazy floor/risk profile. He had too good of an eye in the minor leagues to get challenged, but wasn't quite ready for the big leagues as a 20-year-old, which led to him splitting the season between the two levels as Baltimore prioritized his long-term development over playing games with his service time. 

Holliday is an obvious buy-low target in dynasty, so I didn't want anyone to sell too low on him this offseason, but if I were on the clock in a startup dynasty, I'd go with Caminero over Holliday in most cases just in an effort to avoid the uncertainty with Holliday and because second base is deeper than third base.

Dynasty Junkie: I don't think I've ever felt this way before, but the hitter pool seems watered down. For example, I want to love early hitters. They should be building blocks, but I don't feel very safe with James Wood, Junior Caminero, Jackson Holliday, Jarren Duran, Michael Harris, Lawrence Butler, Jazz Chisholm, etc... I'm not saying those hitters can't be stars, but there seems to be a high risk factor in drafting these guys this early...

I largely agree with this sentiment. In a dynasty startup, I think I'd be most likely to end up with Harris (in an AVG league) or Butler (any format) due to how I think all these guys are valued in the market. Maybe the answer is that this offseason, it's best to just treat a dynasty startup even closer to a redraft league than we normally would. 

I say this a lot, but the rankings should just be a tool for you to use/reference. If you're on the clock in a dynasty startup, don't take someone with an early pick you're uncomfortable with just because they're the highest ranked player available. I'm joining a highly-competitive startup dynasty league this offseason and look forward to battle-testing the dynasty ranks, so we'll see if those young hitters you referenced stay that high on the next update.

Gordy Meyers: Was Tink Hence (STL) an intentional omission? I've seen no info on his season-ending injury; did you hear it's something major? 

It was intentional, but also, he barely missed, so it's not like he can't be valued in this range. I'm lower on him because I think the Tommy John surgery risk is off the charts, and I don't expect him to establish himself in the majors before he needs some sort of procedure. It's not a fun type of analysis to use with prospects, but Hence checks every box (recent arm injuries, velocity, youth, slight build) I look for with high-risk young pitchers, and the track record of fading these types is pretty good. After he wore down in the second half of 2023, the Cardinals babied Hence all year (he averaged just under four innings per start) and they still couldn't keep him healthy.

Schmidty: I want to ask about Kyle Harrison not being ranked in the top 500. I'm assuming he was omitted by accident?

This was another case where an injured pitcher barely missed. I had somewhat high hopes for Harrison as a rookie last year, but the stuff just wasn't as good as it was at times when he was a prospect, and then he ended the year on the shelf with shoulder inflammation. The rankings get pretty flat after around 300-350, so you could value Harrison in the 350-500 range if you're a bit higher on him than I am, or you think I'm overreacting to a mediocre season from a 22-year-old rookie pitcher, which is certainly possible.

Phil Kramer: If Austin Riley was the same age as Bryce Harper/Jose Ramirez, is there a case to be made that he would be ranked outside of the top 75 overall?

Harper and Ramirez are 32, and Riley is 27. If Riley were five years older, he'd probably be ranked outside the top 75, but those five years are five prime years, so he's ranked in the top 30 instead.

SoxSocks: With it seeming increasingly likely that Roki Sasaki may be posted this year, what range would he slot in at?

The closest thing I saw to these rumors was ESPN's Kiley McDaniel saying "indications point to Sasaki joining this year's (free agent) class". I'm not sure if he's just connecting bread crumbs or if this is legitimate reporting, as I talked to Tim McLeod about this in Arizona and it sounds like something would have had to slip from Sasaki's camp for this to actually get out there. 

Anyway, with Sasaki's slightly diminished stuff and the intense level of risk associated with him due to fastball velocity, decreased velocity this year and his age, I'd still be treading pretty carefully if you need to make a decision about him before we get the actual news and destination. He's clearly the No. 1 First-Year Player Draft target if he signs, but the current top guy (Travis Bazzana, CLE) was ranked at 265 overall on the dynasty rankings, so it's a very bad class at the moment. Assuming he gets posted and signs with the Dodgers, I'd put him around 125 overall, in between Jackson Jobe (DET) and Bubba Chandler (PIT), but if he were coming off his 2023 season, I'd put him around 50-75 in the rankings.

Daniel Hoffmann: If you were to redo your Too Early Top 300 today, who would be the biggest risers, and biggest fallers, now that you have battle tested your rankings?

Biggest risers: Lawrence Butler, Spencer Schwellenbach, Alec Burleson, Dylan Crews, Spencer Arrighetti, Austin Wells, Drew Rasmussen, Porter Hodge 

Biggest fallers (non injury-related): J.T. Realmuto, Masyn Winn (still love him, just misjudged the middle-infield market), Jake McCarthy, Wilyer Abreu, Matt Wallner, Dean Kremer, Tony Gonsolin, Jonny DeLuca, Ernie Clement, Casey Mize

ProspectVibeCheck: In comparing dynasty values v. prospect ranks, it seems like Jesus Made (MIL) is the 11th ranked dynasty value among prospects, is that more representative of your current valuation?

He's 16th now, but yes, this is how I currently value him. Similarly to Zyhir Hope (LAD), it just seemed that Made's upside needed to be valued more highly given the lack of clear star-level prospects in the minors right now. Made has obviously been covered extensively, also on that pod with Geoff Pontes of Baseball America, but he's essentially a perfect prospect by Dominican Summer League standards and a candidate to be the No. 1 overall prospect a year from now.

Dynasty Maven: Who are a few prospects outside of your current top 100 that have the best chance of being a Top 10 prospect a year from now?

Given how bad the minors are right now, this essentially needs to be the perfect storm of me underrating someone currently and them achieving close to a 100th percentile outcome this year. Here are some (very unlikely) candidates:

Eric Bitonti (MIL), Emil Morales (LAD), Tai Peete (SEA), Brandon Winokur (MIN), Luis Merejo (CLE), Sammy Stafura (CIN), Brailer Guerrero (TB), Kellon Lindsey (LAD), Braylon Payne (MIL)

ROOKIE DRAFT

This past weekend, I was at First Pitch Arizona and got to see some Arizona Fall League action in addition to participating on some panels, one of which was a recap of a rookie draft that eight of us conducted before the conference.

• Must have 130 or few MLB at-bats for hitters and 50 or fewer MLB innings for pitchers (45+ days on active roster doesn't matter)
• Start C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, UT, P, P, P, P, P (position eligibility determined by 10 or more games at a position at all levels)
• Standard 5x5 roto (AVG, R, RBI, HR, SB, W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP)

My next article will be rookie rankings by position, and it will be coming soon, so I'll give my thoughts on a lot of these guys, but I wanted to leave this draft board here for you all to examine.

Feel free to ask questions in the comments or on Discord.