Oak's Corner: Looking to 2021 for 2020 Strugglers

The Week That Was

Somehow, after this weekend, we only have two weeks left in the season. While I'm still focused on this season because movement in the standings is still all over the place, as we near the end of the season and I shut down the baseball for a little while until 2021 draft prep, I like to take a look at some players who are going to be interesting in next year's drafts. The 2021 draft season will be unlike any other for those who do projections, write articles or plays in competitive leagues. We usually have a long grind of a season where great players routinely rise to the top and we have a large sample of plate appearances or innings pitched to judge and evaluate players.

With this 60-game season, we will have some breakouts who would have fallen flat the final four months, and we'll have players who just never got it going who would have hit a crazy hot streak in a regular season to fix that season line quickly. This week, I'm looking at a few players who have struggled in this short season to see if they'll be good buy lows next year or whether their issues are something to worry about. I'm also going to pick guys I haven't looked at recently or guys who suffered serious injuries (or dealt with Covid), so J.D. Martinez and Matt Olson will be spared from me talking about their 2020 stat lines for now.

Javier Baez was someone I liked in the third round of drafts this year thinking that he was an end of the first round guy the year prior. The only issue with his 2019 line was that he missed more than 20 games. Well, 2020 has been an absolute debacle for Baez. He's hitting .203 with six homers and only one steal. Baez has always had some strikeout issues, but they have ramped way up this year with a 32.8 percent strikeout rate and to go along with those 57 strikeouts, he has only walked seven times. When he does make contact, it hasn't been as solid as last year. He's still above average with a 39.8 percent hard hit rate, but he has seen his barrel rate drop below 10 percent. He has particularly struggled against breaking balls, slugging only .260 on them in 2020 after a .550 slugging percentage in 2019. At 27, Baez is far too talented for me to get especially concerned about a two-month sample, but I will want a small discount from his 2020 price to jump in, and I think I'll be able to get it and have him on multiple teams.

Chris Paddack took the league by storm as a rookie, posting a sparkling 3.33 across his first 26 MLB starts. He had some issues with the home run ball but struck out 9.8 batters per nine and displayed impressive command as a rookie with a 1.7 BB/9 walk rate. The hype was in full effect this year as his ADP in the NFBC Main Events landed in the middle of the third round at pick 41.3.  He has absolutely hurt teams counting on him for ratios with a 4.75 ERA through his first nine starts. The strikeouts are down a little bit, but the swinging strike rate is still above 11 percent and he has maintained a great walk rate at 1.7 BB/9.

The issue has very much been what happens after batters put the ball in play on Paddack, as his really low .237 BABIP of 2019 has jumped up to .310 as he has given up a lot more hard contact. His hard hit rate has jumped to 46 percent, and his barrel rate has also jumped over 10 percent. Both of those numbers are in the bottom 15 percent in the league. Of course, hard contact can be dealt with, as a pitcher with a lot of whiffs like Shane Bieber has greatly taught everyone (okay, mostly me) this year, but Bieber also had massive whiff numbers on a couple of pitches last year.  Paddack has become even more of a two-pitch guy this year, throwing his fastball and changeup 90.1 percent of the time. The changeup is still really good; its allowing only a .267 slugging percentage, but his fastball has been smoked at a .691 slugging percentage with a meager 21.4 percent whiff rate. I have a feeling Paddack will still be popular in drafts next year, and I don't think I will get enough of a discount to jump in.

Keston Hiura was a very popular riser in drafts this year after his impressive debut in 2019 where he hit 19 homers in 84 games while also stealing nine bases. His strikeouts were definitely too high in 2019, but his impressive amount of hard contact combined with that speed/power combo had him elevated to an ADP of 48 in the NFBC Main Event drafts. While Hiura has still provided the power with 11 homers, he has only stolen three bases, and the .229 batting average has hurt fantasy teams. In addition to the average, his OBP has dropped 50 points while his slugging percentage has dropped more than 100 points.

Of most concern for Hiura is the strikeout rate, already a problem, has climbed to 32.4 percent. His swinging strike has risen right along with it, currently sitting at 20.6 percent, which puts him at the third highest in baseball, trailing only Adalberto Mondesi (shocker) and Luis Robert. He has a whiff rate over 40 percent on all three types of pitches, so it isn't like any particular pitch is giving him issues, and his whiff rate overall sits in the good old first percentile. His hard hit rate is still solid at 42 percent, but that is still an eight percent drop from his gigantic rate last year. He still has a barrel rate in the 87th percentile, but with the drop in hard contact and the strikeout rate way up, it's going to be hard for him to maintain any sort of decent batting average. He still will hit in a great ballpark in a great lineup spot next year, but I think there are enough real concerns here for me (combined with some of those being an issue in 2019), that there is likely to be someone willing to grab Hiura before me in all my leagues next year. This is one short season struggler whom I won't be targeting in 2021.  

With the catcher position such a wasteland of production, Gary Sanchez has managed to stick inside the top eight rounds because the power he provides at the position is a huge difference-maker compared to other catchers. After 2018 and 2019 where he hit about .210 combined, I think it's fair to say anyone who took him knew the batting average was going to sting, but this has gotten ridiculous. Through 122 plate appearances in 2020, Sanchez is hitting an absurd .121 with only 10 runs scored and 15 runs drive in. Even during his rough average seasons, his strikeout rate has not been a huge issue (it got close in 2019 at 28 percent), but he now sits at an unbelievable 41 percent so far this year. To go along with that, his swinging strike rate has also climbed to a career high 14.8 percent.

The complete collapse is wild, as this is a player who hit .298 and .278 in his first two seasons in New York, doing so with a ton of pop, hitting 53 homers over the first 175 MLB games. He has always hit the ball hard when he makes contact, and that's no different this year with a 47.4 percent hard hit rate and a 17.5 percent barrel rate, which are both above the 90th percentile. It's possible he is doing a full sellout for power and figured that he will hit it hard when he makes contact, but whatever approach he's going with isn't working and has not worked for a while. I think this offseason we finally see the price crater on Sanchez, and I wouldn't even think about him until around pick 200, as the batting average risk he carries is just too significant.

FAAB Feelings

There are only two weeks left of FAAB, so if you have managed to save a few bucks, make sure to use most of it (keep a few bucks for the final week!) this week and target pitchers in good matchups or guys who might get three more starts the rest of the way depending on what categories you need. Also, hitters playing every day is a major factor, as there are a lot of teams getting a look at some younger guys. With a lot of the playoff spots essentially locked up due to the expanded playoffs, a lot of those contenders are going to get their regulars some off-days as, this has been a season devoid of many of those, especially for the teams that have been pushed into a bunch of doubleheaders.

Bobby Dalbec – Dalbec was available last week in leagues but snuck through a lot of them, as he's still available in 33 percent of NFBC Main Event leagues and 88 percent of the 12-team leagues. He has had a strong start over his first week and a half, effectively ensuring regular at-bats for the rest of the way. Dalbec has managed to smoke six homers already through only 39 at-bats, and if you need power, riding this hot streak might be your best shot in FAAB the final two weeks.

Dalbec was an established power bat in the minors, hitting 32 in 2018 and 27 in 2019. He has had some strikeout issues in the minors but managed to drop that into the mid-20s in 2019. The strikeout issue has reared its head in the majors so far with his insane 48.7 percent strike rate, although that is only through 10 games. If the strikeouts persist anywhere near that rate, it will obviously be too much to overcome, but if he can get that down to just his normal levels, the power is enough to speculate on him staying hot for another couple of weeks. In the next three series after this weekend, Dalbec faces the Marlins, Yankees (they are scheduled to miss Cole) and Orioles, so the pitching should be very gettable for the young slugger.

Edward Olivares – Olivares sparked some interest at the start of the season as he made the Padres roster, but the playing crunch with the Padres made him an easy drop in fantasy leagues. A deadline trade to the Royals in the Trevor Rosenthal deal has given Olivares the chance to play every day, and he is taking full advantage of it. He has hits in seven straight games with five multi-hit games in that run. It's a bit of a negative that he has been hitting sixth or seventh, but everyday playing time is tough to find in the final weeks, especially attached to someone with an intriguing skill set like Olivares.

Olivares' double-s stat line from 2019 I find especially intriguing for fantasy squads as he managed to mash 18 homers while also swiping 35 bases over 127 games. His strikeout rate so far in MLB is high (it is for many guys in their first time, through), but he has a history of strikeout rates under 20 percent in his minor league campaigns, so I think that will come down as he gets more comfortable. Olivares is very readily available in FAAB this week, as he's only owned in five percent of NFBC 12-teamers and 51 percent of the 15-team Main Events. Getting a player with a speed/power combo (and also one with some solid batting averages recently) for the final stretch can be absolutely golden, and with the regular at-bats and fantasy upside, Olivares is my favorite bid this week in FAAB.

Series of the Weekend

Giants at Padres – The Twins-Indians series is excellent, too, as the AL Central comes down to the wire, but the two longest win streaks in baseball (the Padres won Thursday night to extend theirs and end the Giants run) are matching up this weekend in Petco Park, so I had to take a look here. The Giants have been the most surprising team in baseball in 2020, as it was assumed they would be one of the worst teams, but they find themselves over .500 and with a really good shot to snag a playoff spot (68 percent according to ESPN). They have done it with an offense that's somehow top five in runs scored and second in team batting average, despite a lineup that all of us scoffed at in March. The Padres keep rolling along, and while the Giants might be the most surprising lineup, the Padres probably lay claim to the most fun lineup in baseball.

When you click "leaders" on Fangraphs, it sorts initially by total WAR, and in the top five, you see Fernando Tatis, Anthony Rendon, Nelson Cruz (the man) and Mookie Betts, and you think, yeah, makes sense. The one name in there I don't think even the biggest Giants fan would have predicted is the guy at No. 2, Mike Yastrzemski. Yaz has been a total beast all season, hitting .297 with nine homers, 35 runs scored and 31 RBI through his nearly 200 plate appearances. He has ramped up his walk rate in his new leadoff spot to 13.4 percent, which in turn gives him an OBP north of .400.

Yaz had a nice debut last year with 21 homers in 107 games, but drafters appeared to be wary about his upside, plus the lineup and ballpark in San Francisco. Well, the upside is coming through, as the ballpark has played much differently this year, and the lineup has somehow been really good. His hard contact is solid, just as it was last year with a 42 percent hard hit rate and a barrel rate of 10.9 percent. The walks are definitely a positive, and it appears that it comes from him chasing fewer bad pitches, as he has dropped his chase percentage nearly seven percent to 20.1 percent. I really like watching Yaz, but I wonder if the breakout in the mini season, plus the uncertainty of how Oracle will play with the tarps taken off the right field wall, make him a little too popular for my liking in 2021 drafts.

Speaking of 2020 fantasy breakouts, Saturday's starter Dinelson Lamet was popular this preseason drafts, but he has blown even that helium out of the water with a 2.24 ERA in his 52.1 innings. His strikeout rate, while down from 2019, is still great at 11.7 K/9, but he has managed to impressively drop his walk rate to 2.6 BB/9. He has also dropped his home run rate under 1.00 BB/9 for the first time in his brief career. After ramping up his average velocity to 96.1 in 2019, he has upped it yet again to 97.1 mph so for this year.

Lamet's pitch mix has been drastically altered so far in the short season, as he is throwing his slider 52.7 percent of the time after using it 12.2 percent of the time last year. He has scrapped his curveball, which he threw about a third of the time in 2019, and it has sure worked, as he has posted a 47.5 percent whiff rate on the pitch. I still wonder if he runs into trouble at some point, as he's really a two-pitch guy (he does throw both a four seamer and a sinker) with no changeup long-term, but it sure has been a damn good ride so far in 2020.