Offseason Deep Dives: Cody Bellinger

Cody Bellinger's first season with the Cubs in 2023 was easily his best since his National League MVP campaign in 2019. He finished 10th in NL MVP voting that year, slashing .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs, 97 RBI, 95 runs and a career-high 20 stolen bases. His counting stats would have been even better had he not missed a month of action with a knee issue.

Despite the big bounce-back season from Bellinger, there was plenty of skepticism about him in the fantasy industry. His 31.4 percent hard-hit rate and 6.1 percent barrel rate were easily career lows, and the 43-point gap between his xwOBA (.327) and actual wOBA (.370) was tied for the fifth-highest in baseball. The trepidation with Bellinger proved to be well-founded, as his batting line fell to .266/.325/.426 in 2024 and his counting stats plummeted across the board.

The thing is, Bellinger was virtually the same hitter in 2024 as he was in 2023, he just didn't have luck on his side this past season. Check out how close some of his key stats were in those two years:

Bellinger's strikeout rates have fluctuated wildly in his career, much like his production has. He struck out at just a 16.3 percent clip during his MVP season while also showing the best batted-ball data of his career and then followed that up with a 17.3 percent strikeout rate in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, however, his strikeout rate ballooned to 27.1 percent. While he's made more contact than ever the last two seasons, that seems to be coming at the cost of how hard he impacts the ball. It's a tradeoff worth making if the alternative is his dreadful 2021-22 stretch, but it seems clear at this point Bellinger is no longer capable of excelling in both facets.

What Bellinger excelled at in 2024 and throughout his career has been pulling the ball in the air. The image below is taken from Baseball Savant and shows the pulled flyball leaders since Bellinger's rookie season in 2017. He also ranked seventh if you isolate the rankings for just 2024.

Pulling the ball in the air as a left-handed batter at Wrigley Field isn't the best strategy. Sure, it can work on the days the wind is howling out to right field, but Wrigley ranks just 23rd for home runs for lefties over the last three seasons, per Baseball Savant's Park Factors. Additionally, as I've outlined in previous articles in this series, 2024 was not the ideal year to be hitting flyballs unless you're hitting them really hard, as the ball wasn't traveling well. Bellinger's average flyball distance last season was just 301 feet. Prior to 2024, he averaged 325 feet with his flyballs.

Bellinger's new home at Yankee Stadium, however, is a great spot to yank flyballs down the line with its short porch in right field. Only the Reds' Great American Ball Park and the Phillies' Citizens Bank Park rank higher for home runs for lefties over the last three seasons. Per Baseball Savant's Expected Home Runs by Park, Bellinger would have hit 24 homers in 2024 had he played all of his games at Yankee Stadium. Again, only Great American Ball Park (29) and Citizens Bank Park (25) were higher. I don't know how the ball will travel in 2025, but it might not matter much for Bellinger when he's playing at home. It's an ideal landing spot for him from that perspective.

After swiping a career-high 20 bags in 2023, Bellinger saw that total more than halved in 2024, falling all the way down to nine. Bellinger's sprint speed in 2024 came in at 28.4 feet per second, which ranked in the 77th percentile. Those marks were his highest in four years, so it doesn't seem to be a matter of him having lost footspeed. Could he bounce back in the stolen base department in 2025? It's possible, but it's worth noting that the Yankees ranked 24th in steals in 2024 and are 22nd in baseball since manager Aaron Boone took over. Personnel plays a large part in that, of course, but Bellinger isn't joining a team known for its aggressiveness on the basepaths. A return to double digits in stolen bases certainly seems doable, though, given that 2024 was the first full season Bellinger didn't get there and that his speed is still present.

Where will Bellinger hit in the Yankees' lineup? The only spot in the batting order that would seem to be locked in is Aaron Judge in the three hole, with Jasson Dominguez hitting eighth and whoever plays third base batting ninth also being likely. The leadoff spot can probably be ruled out, but Bellinger could, conceivably, hit second or anywhere from fourth through seventh. Obviously, that's a wide range that would have some fantasy implications, and another addition for the Yanks from the position-player side can't be ruled out. Hopefully, Boone offers some clarity there before draft season is in full swing.

Bellinger's floor in 2025 seems to be pretty safe, which is something that shouldn't be dismissed considering how low things got for him in 2021 and 2022. How much of a ceiling he has is questionable, although we saw in 2023 that it's capable of being quite high when he experiences some good fortune. The batting average (.307) from that season is probably a pipe dream and the stolen bases (20) might be as well, but a run at the 26 long balls he slugged that year looks possible given his new friendly home confines.

Bellinger's current ADP in NFBC leagues sits at 116, although it has ticked up to 103 since it was reported that his trade to the Yankees was going down. He's been the No. 25 outfielder and No. 9 first baseman off the board since the trade. In 2024, Bellinger finished as the No. 95 overall player on RotoWire's Earned Auction Values, and he was 30th among outfielders and 13th among first basemen. I like him to turn a profit at that ADP, especially if he winds up hitting higher in the Yankees' batting order.