This article is part of our Offseason Deep Dives series.
The above note was written by yours truly almost exactly one year ago. Focus on the last two sentences. The first discusses the idea of Reynaldo Lopez being used as a starter in Atlanta and the second basically dismisses the possibility. Oops.
I wasn't alone in that feeling, of course. Lopez came into the 2024 campaign as a 30-year-old with a career 4.73 ERA and 19.8 percent strikeout rate as a starter and a 3.01 ERA and 26.6 percent strikeout rate as a reliever. All but one of his 129 appearances over the previous two seasons had been in relief, and the one that wasn't was a two-inning opener assignment.
By early March, it had become clear that Atlanta was serious about making Lopez a starter and the fifth spot in the rotation was his to lose. With a 2.16 ERA during Grapefruit League play, he did not lose it. That said, even after Lopez was named the No. 5 starter, the feeling was that he was still likely to spend ample time in Atlanta's bullpen eventually.
We know now that Lopez was simply too good to take out of the rotation, and Atlanta losing Spencer Strider after just two starts meant the club also had a need. Lopez raced out of the gate with a 1.50 ERA in five April starts and went on to post a sub-2.00 ERA in May and June, as well. He finished the first half with a 1.88 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 95:34 K:BB
The above note was written by yours truly almost exactly one year ago. Focus on the last two sentences. The first discusses the idea of Reynaldo Lopez being used as a starter in Atlanta and the second basically dismisses the possibility. Oops.
I wasn't alone in that feeling, of course. Lopez came into the 2024 campaign as a 30-year-old with a career 4.73 ERA and 19.8 percent strikeout rate as a starter and a 3.01 ERA and 26.6 percent strikeout rate as a reliever. All but one of his 129 appearances over the previous two seasons had been in relief, and the one that wasn't was a two-inning opener assignment.
By early March, it had become clear that Atlanta was serious about making Lopez a starter and the fifth spot in the rotation was his to lose. With a 2.16 ERA during Grapefruit League play, he did not lose it. That said, even after Lopez was named the No. 5 starter, the feeling was that he was still likely to spend ample time in Atlanta's bullpen eventually.
We know now that Lopez was simply too good to take out of the rotation, and Atlanta losing Spencer Strider after just two starts meant the club also had a need. Lopez raced out of the gate with a 1.50 ERA in five April starts and went on to post a sub-2.00 ERA in May and June, as well. He finished the first half with a 1.88 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 95:34 K:BB over 95.2 innings while making his first All-Star team.
The Braves did consistently give Lopez extra rest whenever possible. Lopez's first start on regular (four days) rest came on May 25 in his ninth appearance of the season. It was one of only two starts on four days' rest during the first half, with the second one coming on July 7. Lopez's pitch counts were also limited. He threw 101 pitches during a July 2 outing versus the Giants, which wound up being the only time all season he crossed the 100-pitch threshold. All told, he made only five starts on normal rest, although he was very effective in those outings, compiling a 1.52 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 23:8 K:BB across 23.2 frames.
It looked around midseason like Lopez might be hitting a wall. While he had a solid 3.20 ERA in 25.1 July innings, Lopez also held a 1.46 WHIP and 21:10 K:BB. Most alarmingly, he exited his final start that month with right forearm inflammation, an injury which wound up costing him three weeks of action.
Between the downturn in performance and injury to his pitching arm, Lopez was sent to the waiver wire in some leagues where roster space was precious. However, he looked as good as ever upon his return on Aug. 20, collecting a 1.96 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 34:5 K:BB over 23 innings covering his next four starts. Unfortunately, injury struck again, with Lopez going back on the IL with right shoulder inflammation. He did make it back for one more late-September start and was dominant with nine punchouts over six scoreless frames. Lopez closed out his regular season with one scoreless relief inning and did not appear during the Braves' Wild Card Series loss to the Padres.
Atlanta rewarded Lopez's excellent season and, more importantly, seemed to show confidence in his health, reworking his contract earlier this month. The club lowered Lopez's 2025 salary from $11 million to $8 million but bumped his 2026 salary from $11 million to $14 million and turned an $8 million club option for 2027 into a guaranteed salary.
The most notable pitch mix change Lopez made in his move into the rotation was incorporating his curveball more often. After throwing the pitch a total of 11 times in 2023, the pitch had an 11.6 percent usage rate in 2024. That was still well behind his four-seamer (55.2 percent) and slider (29.4 percent), but it gave Lopez a legitimate third offering, particularly against left-handed batters, as he threw 224 of his 244 curveballs to lefties. The pitch was very successful, too, garnering a 36.4 percent whiff rate, .285 xwOBA and plus-5 Run Value, per Baseball Savant.
As you might suspect with a move from the bullpen to the rotation, Lopez's velocity was down across the board at roughly three mph on each pitch. And yet, at least in terms of Run Value, his repertoire was as effective as it's ever been. Lopez's four-seamer earned a plus-19, which was tied for the third-best mark in baseball among all four-seamers. His slider earned a plus-12, which was tied for the fifth-best mark among all sliders. The only other pitchers to have two pitches that were at least plus-12 were Zack Wheeler, Framber Valdez and Ryan Walker.
Lopez's four-seamer was at plus-19 even as his whiff rate on the pitch dropped from 27.1 percent to 16.5 percent year over year and the opponents' exit velocity on the offering went way up from 87.8 mph to 91.4 mph. The right-hander's Stuff+ rating for the four-seamer went down in a major way, dropping from 124 to 91.
Earlier this month, Codify Baseball had a tweet regarding Lopez's four-seamer and, well, I found it jaw-dropping so I will just share it here:
Lopez has a good four-seamer and it plays up because it has an active spin rate of 98 percent. That said, in no way, shape or form should he be getting those kinds of results on middle-middle heaters. It was just incredibly good fortune for the right-hander and is in no way repeatable.
Speaking of good fortune, Lopez had a left-on-base rate of 87 percent, the highest mark in baseball among the 96 pitchers who threw at least 130 innings. He also managed a HR/9 rate of just 0.66, which was the fifth-lowest among those same 96 hurlers. In his last season as a full-time starter in 2019, Lopez surrendered 35 home runs. In 2024, he gave up only 10. Part of that was definitely the offensive environment across the league, which was decidedly more homer-friendly in 2019 than it was in 2024. We don't yet know how the ball will play in 2025, as it has a tendency to change year-to-year and even month-to-month, but even if things are similar to last season, Lopez is likely to see regression in the long ball department.
Lopez was great down the stretch in 2024 when on the mound, but a 73.2-inning workload increase from 2023 probably played a part in two different arm injuries during the second half. Presumably, the Braves will want him to make starts on regular rest more often in 2025. Even if that doesn't lead to additional injuries, he could prove to be less effective that way. And, as I've already outlined, Lopez is a good bet for regression in numerous areas, regardless. His 3.94 xERA in 2024 was nearly two full runs worse than his actual ERA.
The sickos that have already been doing NFBC drafts have landed on an ADP of 141.98 for Lopez thus far. He's been the 46th starting pitcher off the board. He finished as the 108th player overall and 24th starting pitcher this season, and that's even as he somehow managed just eight wins while posting a 1.99 ERA. So, it's a price that seems very reasonable. Still, I suspect that in most if not all of my leagues there will be another owner willing to pull the trigger on Lopez sooner than me.
