This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
We have a modest five-game slate Thursday, but PrizePicks still has a full array of gameplay opportunities. We highlight four of our favorites below.
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Yordan Alvarez, HOU at MIN: More Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
Alvarez had an utterly forgettable start to the season, going 1-for-16 over his first five games. However, an absurdly low .091 BABIP is certainly playing a part, and Alvarez's luck began to change Wednesday when he went 2-for-4 with a walk and a pair of RBI. The left-handed slugger is overdue for some power displays as well, and he may have the right conditions for it Thursday.
Twins starter Joe Ryan is certainly a quality pitcher, but he does frequently have trouble keeping the ball in the park. That's particularly been the case with Alvarez, who's gotten to him for three home runs in 14 career encounters on his way to a .333 average against Ryan. Alvarez also laced 45 of his 102 hits against right-handed pitchers for extra bases last season, and his No. 3 spot in the order puts him in prime position to both score and drive in runs.
Willi Castro, MIN vs. HOU: More Than 0.5 Singles
Castro has enjoyed plenty of success against Astros starter Hunter Brown, who he's gotten to for a .667 average over nine career encounters and laced five singles against. Castro has actually been on a bit of an extra-base hit barrage to open the season – four of his five hits so far have been either a double or a home run – but that's primarily an outlier for the switch hitter.
Castro came into this season with only 33.0 percent of his career hits having gone for extra bases, so he's more likely to rap out a blooper or skirt one through the infield than knock the cover off the ball, this season's modest sample excluded. With a pitching matchup he's comfortable with and much better career numbers against righties than southpaws, this is a viable prop for Castro.
Ketel Marte, ARI at NYY: More Than 0.5 Total Bases
Marte is fresh off signing a lucrative extension that he's earned with some spectacular offensive displays over the last couple of seasons in particular. The 31-year-old infielder is off to a solid start this season as well, posting a .292 average and .808 OPS across his first 30 plate appearances while accumulating nine total bases.
Marte is still looking for his first homer after blasting a career-high 36 last season, and he's facing a pitcher in Yankees starter Carlos Carrasco who frequently struggles to keep the ball in the park. Marte has yet to connect off Carrasco but does have a .333 average against him in 14 career plate appearances, and the veteran right-hander has given up 284 extra-base hits to left-handed hitters over the course of his long career.
Nick Lodolo, CIN at MIL: More Than 5.5 Strikeouts
Lodolo was impressive in his first start of the season despite uncharacteristically struggling to ring up strikeouts, as he recorded just a sole K against the Giants over six innings. However, the left-hander allowed just two runs and got the victory, and considering he's posted K/9s of 9.5 or higher in each of his first three seasons, his lack of swing-and-miss stuff was likely just an outlier.
We'll bank on Lodolo bouncing back against the Brewers, which have gotten off to a rocky start and have struck out at a 29.2 percent clip against left-handed pitching in 137 plate appearances thus far this season. Lodolo recorded at least six strikeouts in 12 of 21 starts last season, and he's posted 14.3 and 10.5 K/9s on the road over the last two campaigns (72.2 innings).
