This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
MLB fans got an appetizer of the 2025 regular season last week with the Tokyo Series between the Dodgers and Cubs, but it's Opening Day in earnest Thursday! We'll break down top PrizePicks suggestions multiple times each week throughout the 2025 MLB regular season.
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Chris Sale, ATL at SDP: Less Than 5.5 Strikeouts
Sale put together a rock-solid spring after a stellar resurgence last season that saw him take home NL Cy Young honors. However, his strikeout numbers took a bit of a hit down the stretch — he posted six or fewer Ks in four of his last six starts — and he's facing one of the toughest teams for lefties to strike out in the Padres, who were set down at just a 16.5 percent clip, the second lowest in the majors, by lefties at home after the All-Star break last season.
Sale faced San Diego once last season and recorded a modest 4 Ks against the Friars over five innings. Additionally two of the most potent bats in the Padres' lineup, Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado, have hit a combined .349 against him in 49 career encounters, striking out just nine times in that sample. Considering Sale could also be somewhat limited in his innings for his first start of the season — particularly given his injury history — less than 5.5 Ks seems like a plausible scenario.
Adley Rutschman, BAL vs. TOR: More Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
Rutschman is always a candidate for more than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI due to his potent bat, but he may have even higher odds than usual Thursday due to the starting pitcher matchup. Blue Jays right-hander Jose Berrios recorded a career-high 16 wins in 2024, but his multi-season troubles with the long ball were more prevalent than ever.
Berrios served up a career-high 31 homers last season, and Rutschman connected for two of them in a 3-2 Blue Jays victory last May. In all, the slugging backstop has an astounding .591 average with two doubles, three total homers and zero strikeouts in 24 career plate appearances versus the veteran righty. He also laced 41 of his 143 hits last season for extra bases and plays in a potent lineup that can always give him multiple run-scoring and/or RBI opportunities.
Vladimir Guerrero, TOR vs. BAL: More Than 7.0 Fantasy Points
Guerrero is heading into a critical contract season, and he'll maximize the financial windfall that will be part of his forthcoming deal with either Toronto or any number of other teams with a big year. The quest for the prolific numbers could get off to a momentous start on Opening Day, as Guerrero will face off against a pitcher he's enjoyed plenty of success against in the past in Zach Eflin.
Guerrero has lit up Eflin for a .368 average and a pair of homers over 19 career encounters, a sample in which he's struck out just once. Eflin does have above-average control, but he's traditionally pitched to plenty of contact and has had his fair share of seasons where he's had trouble keeping the ball in the park. Eflin also allowed a .281 average and 27 extra-base hits to right-handed hitters a year ago, while recording just a 17.1 percent strikeout rate. Meanwhile, Guerrero posted a .346 average, 1.001 OPS and .421 wOBA against righties at home in 2024, and he has a strong career track record against multiple Baltimore relievers as well.
Blake Snell, LAD vs. DET: More Than 14.5 Outs
Snell didn't have too many opportunities to pitch during Cactus League play, but he did work up to 67 offerings in his final tune-up and also averaged over 95 mph on his fastball during the outing. The talented left-hander and one-time AL Cy Young winner will also draw a tantalizing matchup for his Dodgers debut, which comes at home.
The Tigers were one of baseball's most punchless squads against lefties last season, posting a .217 average, .272 wOBA and -10.1 wRAA versus southpaws on the road after the All-Star break. Detroit also struck out at an AL-high 28.7 percent clip in that split. Current Tigers bats have just a career .172 average and .294 OBP against Snell, a sample that includes offseason addition Gleyber Torres, who has only a .125 average in 20 career plate appearances versus the lefty.
