This article is part of our Sorare MLB series.
Sorare is a new type of fantasy baseball where you can buy, sell and trade digital player cards and use them to compete in competitions for prizes. It's free to sign up at https://sorare.com/mlb.
As we approach May, the weather is warming up (although here in Detroit that's happening a little slower than is ideal), a sign that we've gotten into the MLB season in earnest. Of course, there is a ton of season left, and we aren't even to the quarter mark. Having said that, we've started to get some real data here. There are certain stats that, when juxtaposed with other stats, create an interesting picture. A picture that might help you on the Sorare front. It's time for me to take the temperature once again on the players who are Upgrades, Holds, and Downgrades for your Sorare selections.
Note: the number in parentheses is each player's last Limited Card sale price as of April 24.
Upgrades
Parker Meadows, DET ($4.36): Meadows got to see a little action for the Tigers last year, playing in 37 games and notching three homers and eight stolen bases. This year he has two homers and three stolen bases, which has given him a few games with double-digit Sorare points, but he admittedly has more with negative points. However, let's talk BABIP, aka batting average on balls in play. For hitters, there is some variance in BABIP, but it often lands around .300. Last year, Meadows had a .302 BABIP. This season? He's opened the campaign with a .100 BABIP, which is unsustainably low. The Tigers are giving Meadows the chance to patrol center field, so he will have opportunity to stay in the lineup and pick up his numbers.
Richie Palacios, TAM ($3.85): Line drives turn into hits more than grounders or fly balls. Sure, they turn into home runs less often than flies, but if a hitter is cranking line drives, that tends to bode well. Palacios hit well in Triple-A for Cleveland, but when he got called up in 2022, he really struggled. His 2023 started slowly down in the minors, so much so the Guardians gave up on his and the Cardinals gave him a chance. In 32 games he batted .258, but slugged .516. Now a Ray, Palacios has a whopping 37.1 line-drive percentage. That is a little higher than what is sustainable, but it is significant. Guys who spray singles and doubles rack up Sorare points too!
Cole Ragans, KC ($17.21): You might see Ragans' 4.32 ERA through five starts and think that last year's run with the Royals was a fluke. However, this is a classic case of ERA versus FIP. While Ragans has a 4.32 ERA, he has an 1.98 FIP. His strikeouts are up, his walks are down, and he's allowed a single home run all season. Ragans has three starts with over 25 Sorare points. His ERA is not reflective of his overarching performance.
Zach Eflin, TAM ($8.68): Another Ray for the Upgrade pile! Eflin is coming off back-to-back starts of 26.0 and 28.5 Sorare points, so get in while the getting is still good. Eflin has a 3.68 ERA through five starts, but he has some good peripheral numbers such as his 13.0 K/BB rate. The righty has been elite at avoiding walks for a few seasons, and in each of the last two years he's allowed under one home run per nine innings. Eflin allowed three homers in his first start, but only one since. Things are headed in the right direction.
Holds
Alex Kirilloff, MIN ($4.22): Kirilloff has put up good, but not great, numbers, which feels sustainable. His issue has been staying healthy. Well, that and facing his fellow lefties, but that's not unusual for a southpaw. Since 2022, Kirilloff has an .800 OPS versus righties. His three triples so far are what grabbed my eye most. Granted, those all came in early April, in three games in a row in fact, but one of those games yielded 25.0 Sorare points. As long as Kirilloff is healthy and facing righties regularly, he's primed to produce.
Jose Berrios, TOR ($14.07): Berrios is steady. In each of the last five full MLB seasons, he's made exactly 32 starts. This year he's made five starts, all of them quality starts. The Blue Jay has an 0.85 ERA, and three starts with over 30.0 Sorare points. That's not why I have Berrios as a hold, though. He has a 3.30 FIP, and that feels about right. So does the fact he's pitched at least 6.0 innings every time he's taken the mound. Berrios is a good pitcher off to a great start, but hold onto him remembering the "good" part of that statement.
Downgrades
Jarred Kelenic, ATL ($4.51): Kelenic was dealt from Seattle to Atlanta over the winter and has begun his tenure with his new team hitting .314 with a .386 OBP. The rich get richer and we all shake our fists in frustration. Well, even if we go beyond the fact that Atlanta has avoided trotting Kelenic out there against lefties like he'll spontaneously combust if he sees a southpaw, Kelenic has been quite lucky. He has a .500 BABIP. Last year he did manage a .359 BABIP in 105 games, but that still represents a significant, unsustainable, increase.
Jeremy Pena, HOU ($11.12): Pena went from 22 homers and 11 stolen bases as a rookie to 10 home runs and 13 swiped bags as a sophomore, and he was caught stealing nine times in 2023 as well. The shortstop seems to have some issues on the base paths, having been caught twice already in 2024 while also grounding into five double plays. Also, the dude is absolutely allergic to walks. Pena has walked all of three times in 24 games. His slapdash approach to baseball will yield Sorare points at times, but also plenty of games with negative Sorare points, including three of his last six outings.
Luis Gil, NYY ($7.77): When a Yankees pitcher has a 2.75 ERA through four starts, he's going to grab attention. Even his 2.94 FIP is good, but I am still worried. Gil has only topped 20.5 Sorare points once, and he's only pitched deep enough to qualify for a win twice. The righty has a huge issue with walks. Gil has walked 7.78 batters per nine innings in 2024, and 6.45 in his career. That's playing with fire. Throw in his .222 BABIP through four starts and I think Gil could be in for a rude awakening, and fast.
