We are excited to announce that the ATC projections, courtesy of Ariel Cohen, are available on RotoWire again this season, now more integrated than ever. As with last year, the projections can be found on our player pages, in between a player's 2025 RotoWire Projections and his 3-Year Averages:
New for this year, you can also find the ATC projections in our iOS App, PC Draft Software and Mac Draft Software. To access the ATC projections, go to Settings, then Projections Provider, then select ATC:
For those unfamiliar with the ATC projection system, "ATC" stands not just for the name of its creator but for Average Total Cost. The name is a nod to how the ATC projection system works: by averaging the results of several different projection systems together. Here's an explanation for how it works in Ariel's own words, taken from the projections' introductory article on FanGraphs back in 2017:
"The ATC system does not simply take a straight average of all the projection systems. Instead, each system accounts for a different weight for each statistic for which it projects. (The weights are based on historical past performance.) For example, System A might be given a 20% weight for batter homeruns, but just a 5% weight for pitcher strikeouts. System B might have a 10% weight for HRs, but just a 2% weight for Ks. And so on."
For a lengthier breakdown of the methodology behind the ATC projections, featuring headers such as "Process & Parameter
We are excited to announce that the ATC projections, courtesy of Ariel Cohen, are available on RotoWire again this season, now more integrated than ever. As with last year, the projections can be found on our player pages, in between a player's 2025 RotoWire Projections and his 3-Year Averages:
New for this year, you can also find the ATC projections in our iOS App, PC Draft Software and Mac Draft Software. To access the ATC projections, go to Settings, then Projections Provider, then select ATC:
For those unfamiliar with the ATC projection system, "ATC" stands not just for the name of its creator but for Average Total Cost. The name is a nod to how the ATC projection system works: by averaging the results of several different projection systems together. Here's an explanation for how it works in Ariel's own words, taken from the projections' introductory article on FanGraphs back in 2017:
"The ATC system does not simply take a straight average of all the projection systems. Instead, each system accounts for a different weight for each statistic for which it projects. (The weights are based on historical past performance.) For example, System A might be given a 20% weight for batter homeruns, but just a 5% weight for pitcher strikeouts. System B might have a 10% weight for HRs, but just a 2% weight for Ks. And so on."
For a lengthier breakdown of the methodology behind the ATC projections, featuring headers such as "Process & Parameter Risk" and "Inter-Projection Volatility," check out Ariel's explainer from a few years later, also on FanGraphs. If you're a projections wonk, it's very much worth a read.
Wonks and non-wonks alike, we think you'll get a lot out of the ATC projections being on RotoWire for one simple reason: they're very good. They consistently rank at or near the top in terms of accuracy. By building on the work of the rest of the top projectionists in the business, the ATC projections wind up with a set of numbers which are not only remarkably accurate but which also serve as the best single answer to the question, "What do the projection systems think about this guy?"
