The Z Files: Taking Stock of a Memorial Day Mock

Last week, I organized a Memorial Day mock draft among the Tout Wars participants (with one guest). The teams were drafted under the premise that stats would begin accruing on Monday, May 30. The intent was to mimic a 12-team NFBC league, but I failed to check the drafts settings, so we went through 10 or so rounds with some thinking it was a one-catcher league. Since I did announce the draft to be NFBC style, I changed the settings midway through, apologized and said I wouldn't do this in a real league, but I wanted to draft a two-catcher league. I also requested in lieu of 11 people slapping me the next time they see me, for the league to select a representative to go all Tommy Pham on me next spring during Tout Wars weekend.

Click HERE to see the results. Also, keep an eye on the Tout Wars website for an upcoming Tout Table for some draft commentary.

What follows are several comparisons between the mock and the April ADP for the RotoWire Online Championship (a 12-team league competition).

Before beginning the breakdown, I got a kick out of the fact I'd have finished dead last if the league were scored from Opening Day through Memorial Day. An argument can be tendered those at the top of the standings injected too much recency bias, while those at the bottom were too obstinate in recognizing a new skill level (good or bad). While it's fun to think about, I honestly don't think it matters where the teams ranked using stats that won't count. That said, I would be interested to see the correlation over a bunch of these leagues, as that could reveal some insights into in-season management.

Players Falling out of the First Round

A handful of the participants compete in the NFBC, so the reason no pitcher was drafted in Round 1 isn't just that it wasn't a formal NFBC draft. Burnes and maybe Cole would have probably been a first rounder if the NFBC ran a second-chance league.

Personally, I wasn't taking a pitcher early in spring NFBC drafts, so I certainly wasn't going to alter my approach now.

Players Jumping Into the First Round

Acuna is a no-brainer since his missed time is no longer a factor, plus he's running. It'll be interesting to see if Judge and Machado maintain close to their MVP paces. At least some of Machado's ascent is due to the hot corner looking even worse that it did during draft season.

Betts is interesting in that he was in the midst of a white-hot streak when we drafted and a case could have been made for him to go 1.04, over Juan Soto and Mike Trout. Actually, leapfrogging Acuna to 1.03 is even defensible with Atlanta outfielder slated for more maintenance days than normal.

Starting Pitchers Falling out of the Top 10

For the sake of the pitchers' data, Shohei Ohtani is considered a hitter.

Scherzer's fall is clearly health-related. It may appear to be the same for Woodruff, but he was drafted before news of the injury broke. While his poor start makes his fall understandable, I still had him in my top 10 for rest-of-season before he was put on the IL. I'm admittedly concerned about Bieber, but am very surprised that Urias' fall from grace was so steep.

Starting Pitchers Jumping into the Top 10

Gausman was my SP11 in the spring, so it's nice to see his early success. That said, McClanahan is my current SP15. His ratios are worthy of a top 10 spot, if not top 5, but I'm concerned about workload as he only tossed 123.1 innings last season, and I'm leery Tampa will let him reach workhorse levels this season.

Top-10 Starting Pitcher Comparison

The names are interesting but the pattern even more so, with the caveat it's just one draft. Still, it took a bit for pitchers to start being drafted, then the relative pick number caught up from SP9-SP13. Then look what transpired. There was a clear drop-off in April after SP13, but hurlers continued to be drafted at a rapid clip in this mock. Looking at the names, question marks like Manoah, Verlander, Skubal, Gallen and Cease all assuaged some fears, earning an earlier pick.

Top-10 Closer Comparison

Eight of the initially drafted top-10 closers made it into the mock's top 10, with only Chapman and Kimbrel falling out to be replaced by Rogers and Bednar. My personal approach aside, I figured now that roles are more established, the back-end of the top 10 would be drafted sooner, but the opposite was the case. 

Through Sunday, May 29, only Taylor Rogers (17), Hader (16), Romano (15), Hendriks (14), Jansen (12), Diaz (11), Iglesias (11), Daniel Bard (11), Kimbrel (10), Mark Melancon (10) and Dany Jimenez (10) had collected double-digit saves. Shying away from Bard and Melancon makes sense. However, an argument can be made for Jimenez to have made the top 10. Me? I'm still setting the Bar-low.

Let's wrap up by looking at the biggest overall gainers and fallers. The difference in pick number isn't an accurate measurement since the delta of expected earnings is larger between adjacent picks at the top of a draft. That is, the drop from 10th to 20th is steeper than from 80th to 90th, etc. As such, each draft number will be converted to expected earnings based on historical data for that spot. Earnings through May 29 are included to help put things in perspective.

Top 30 Overall Gainers

Most of this group has outpaced initial expectations by a significant margin. Some are younger players with an earlier than anticipated promotion. A couple were hurt during draft season, so they were discounted in April. One such example is Josh Rojas.

Top 30 Overall Fallers

Sorry friends, this is a tough group to look over, as most are torpedoing their respective fantasy teams. On the other hand, if the market is truly down on these players, they make ideal buy-low targets. Of course, some are injured, and some were overvalued (in my opinion) during drafting season. Personally, I won't be inquiring about Semien or Bieber, but if offered most of the rest (assuming I trust their health status), I'm listening.