Todd's Takes: The Eyes Abbott

Where is Costello?

My reliance on number scouting has served me well over the years, but there are always examples where it falls short, with Andrew Abbott the perfect example. His minor-league numbers were impressive, but he was usually old for the level, so they didn't carry as much weight as the same stats from a younger arm. After his first three starts, everyone was marveling at 17.2 scoreless innings, but I was harping on only 12 strikeouts with nine free passes.

In the time between those three outings and yesterday's start against the Brewers, Abbott has thrown 38 innings with a 3.08 ERA and 0.84 WHIP, but with just 45 punchouts. Oh wait, that's really good, sorry.

Things like MLE (major league equivalency), which incorporates an age-to-level translation, are useful, but they are not the be all, end all. The most prudent analysis combines scouting and spreadsheets. My Abbott evaluation lacked the former, though I did read what those that saw him pitch wrote, and while it was encouraging, it didn't portend what we've witnessed.

To that end, I made a point of watching Abbott last night, with the side bonus of following Corbin Burnes, one of my DFS arms in Tout Daily, the weekly DFS league we play among the Tout Wars participants.

Needless to say, I came away impressed. It was a big game for the Reds and Abbott was matched up with one of the best pitchers in the league. Abbott scattered seven hits in six frames, but he held Milwaukee scoreless, in large due to avoiding walks and fanning nine. Most importantly, he remained composed and in control.

Returning to number scouting, Abbott's 11.6 percent swinging strike rate and 27.9 percent CSW% (called strikes and whiffs) suggest his 27.8 percent strikeout rate is a bit artificially high, but after viewing Abbott, I'm expecting a rather graceful fall. Long term, I see Abbott as more of a mid-rotation sort, following fledgling aces Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene. That said, attracting free-agent pitching to toil in the Great American Ballpark could be a chore, so Abbott's emergence is a nice boon.

As for this season: last year, he compiled 118 innings. In 2023, between the majors and minors, the 24-year-old right-hander is at 115.2 frames, so he'll likely surpass last season's total during his next outing. Even so, Abbott should not be under a major innings restriction, though he could be a bit gassed come playoff time unless the club gets him some rest in the final two months.

Box Score Blitz: Tuesday July 25

• LAA 7, DET 6 (F/10): Griffin Canning went into the break in a rut, but he's emerged with two solid efforts, fanning 20 in 10.2 innings to close out July... A rare blow-up from Carlos Estevez cost Canning the win, but the Angels pushed across the zombie runner in the top of the 10th and then Aaron Loup sealed the deal in the bottom of the frame... With his 3-for-5 effort, Riley Greene is now slashing .392/.446/.569 since coming off the IL. His category juice has been moderate with just two homers and no steals in this span, but both will come.
• PHI 4, BAL 3: In an entertaining and well-played game, the Phillies took advantage of a rare misstep from Yennier Cano, who was on for the save with Felix Bautista having appeared on four times since July 19, accruing 60 pitches. Cano pitched in those same games, but he threw 10 fewer pitches. His velocity was fine, but three of the four hits he yielded were hit over 100 mph, with two coming on his changeup... Bryce Harper hit his first homer as a first baseman, his third game appearing at the position this season... Trea Turner continues to struggle as his 0-for-4 drops him to .226/.270/.381 for the month, with two homers and three steals. It seems extreme to bench a top pick, but if you have someone producing at a higher clip, the time for patience is over.
• TB 4, MIA 1: The Rays may be slipping, but Tyler Glasnow continues to shove. Yesterday was his second straight seven-inning effort. Over his last six starts, Glasnow has recorded a 2.23 ERA and 0.94 WHIP with a dominant 38.2 percent strikeout rate... Yandy Diaz left early after experiencing left groin tightness when he stretched for an errant throw in the third inning. He's slated for an MRI today... Brandon Lowe could be warming up. Over his past seven games, he's batting .280/.357/.560 with two homers and a double. He's streaky and a health risk, but when he's dialed in, not many second basemen have Lowe's pop... Edward Cabrera's health woes continued as he left after two frames with a blister. This was just his second start back after missing more than a month with a right shoulder impingement. Cabrera has flashed signs of being a fantasy force, but he remains inconsistent and lacks durability.
• NYM 9, NYY 3: After seven outings, Justin Verlander had recorded a 4.85 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. After yesterday's solid outing, he's registered a 1.98 ERA and 1.00 WHIP since, albeit with a rather light 43 punchouts in 50 frames. He may appear to be back, but be careful, Verlander's lack of dominance renders him vulnerable. He's a good "sell-high," especially in keeper leagues where you may be able to get a nice future asset... Pete Alonso extended his hitting streak to a modest five games with a 3-for-5 effort, featuring a pair of long balls. His .251 xBA from Statcast indicates Alonso should continue to improve on his current .218 mark... The news wasn't all good for the Mets as Francisco Alvarez was hit in the middle finger of his right hand by an Albert Abreu 97-mph fastball. As if that didn't hurt enough, Alvarez was called out on strikes for swinging at the pitch. Initial X-rays were negative.
• BOS 7, ATL 1: Nick Pivetta continues to thrive as a primary pitcher. He entered the game in the top of the second inning with a 2-1 lead. Five frames later, the Red Sox extended the lead to 5-1. Pivetta won't show up on searches if you use games started, but in his last three efforts as the primary pitcher, he's punched out 26 in 16 stanzas... Jarren Duran says someone told him he runs like he's mad at the ground. That's such a perfect description for the guy who stole two more bases, giving him 21 on the season... Boston manager Alex Cora mentioned there's a chance Trevor Story (elbow) is back by the weekend while Chris Sale (shoulder) is close to a rehab stint... The Braves pulled off an old-fashioned 8-3-5 double play. With men on first and second, Triston Casas hit a bloop to center which Michael Harris II handled. Adam Duvall ran much too far before picking up the ball and was easily doubled off first base. The normally smart Masataka Yoshida took off for third, but Matt Olson's throw to Austin Riley beat Yoshida by 15 feet.
• CLE 5, KC 1: Bo Knows Homers. Sorry, but sometimes you must pick the low hanging fruit. Bo Naylor doubled his career homer total last night, taking Zack Greinke deep twice. Even with the 2-for-3 effort, Naylor's OPS is just .696, but the Guardians are committed to him behind the dish. Naylor has to hit, since he's not great with the glove. It's clearly a small sample, but he's already at minus-two defensive runs saved with a below-average framing mark... Since entering Cleveland's rotation in early June, Aaron Civale has posted a 2.47 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, with last night's eight innings of one-run ball his latest contribution. However, he's fanned only 46 in those 58.1 frames, helping explain a 4.65 xFIP in that span. Selling high feels like advice from Lord Obvious, but it's true if possible.
• SEA 9, MIN 7: The Twins have the fifth-best bullpen ERA in baseball, yet it seems they're always giving away a late lead. It happened twice last night, spoiling another solid effort from Pablo Lopez... The Mariners bailed out George Kirby, who had a rough outing. Kirby fanned nine with just one walk in four stanzas, but six of the 10 balls put in player were of the hard-hit variety, five of which eclipsed triple digits... Seattle's pitching is playoff-worthy, but the offense could use a deadline bump, not to mention a solid stretch from Julio Rodriguez. The sophomore has now hit in four straight games including three homers, two from last night... With a pair of pilfers, Willi Castro has 25 steals. I share this with hesitation, since some may misinterpret as me being kidnapped.
• CHC 7, CHW 3: Tuesday was a good time to have a Cubs middle infielder active as Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner and Christopher Morel all homered and had multi-hit games. Swanson knocked two out of the yard and has been raking since coming off the IL, going 7-for-13... The Cubs stole five bases, four with Michael Kopech on the hill. Kopech has now been victimized 20 times. With almost four months in the books, there are some teams clearly taking advantage of weak batteries and some batteries who are particularly worth attacking. Hmm, sounds like a Z Files... Adbert Alzolay has quietly solidified the back end of the Cubs bullpen, He collected his 10th save last night, his sixth this month.
• CIN 4, MIL 3: As discussed in the introduction, both starters excelled, with Corbin Burnes only yielding two runs in his six frames. The bullpens faltered late, as Bryse Wilson allowed the Red to double their lead and head into the ninth up 4-0. The Reds' Daniel Duarte served up a three-run homer to Christian Yelich, forcing Alexis Diaz into the contest for a one-out save. He delivered, but not after giving up a single and hitting a batter.
• HOU 4, TEX 3: Kyle Tucker delivered a combo meal (a homer and a steal in the same game), a term coined by friends and ESPN colleagues Tristan Cockcroft and Eric Karabell. Just don't ask me to sing... J.P. France posted his second straight seven-inning effort, but he (wait for it) fanned only eight in those 14 frames. France has exhibited solid command and control, but his lack of dominance restricts him to the streaming bucket... Adolis Garcia returned after missing two games following getting hit on the hand. He was 1-for-4 but crushed a long foul with no-brainer home-run distance in the eighth, narrowly missing a game-tying three-run shot.
• WSH 6, COL 5: Colorado wasted a rare gem from Austin Gomber as the Nationals muscled up late. Stone Garrett got it started with a solo shot in the seventh, then Joey Meneses capped off a productive day with a three-run dinger in the eighth... Meneses was called up around this time last season and went on to post a .324/.367/.563 line. Clearly, expecting him to match it this season was overly optimistic, but most trusted the power to repeat, albeit with a lower average. So far, his average has been fine, but Meneses has disappointed in terms of power. However, last night's homer was his fifth in July (he has seven for the season), so perhaps he'll again be a force down the stretch... If you don't have CJ Abrams active, you're not paying attention. Or maybe you drafted him in the Beat Todd Zola Rotowire Online Championship League, even though your middle and utility spots were filled (J.D. Martinez), but you just couldn't pass on the price and you figured someone has to get hurt, but everyone has been healthy while your corners and outfield have been decimated.
• ARI 3, STL 1: Merrill Kelly pitched for the first time in a month but didn't miss a beat with six stanzas of one-run ball, punching out five with just two bases on balls... Corbin Carroll didn't start, but he was still the hero with a pinch-hit triple in the eighth, plating two runs... Kevin Ginkel has emerged as the Diamondbacks closer, garnering his third save since the break. After starting the season with a 4.61 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in his first dozen frames, Ginkel has pitched to a 1.07 ERA and 0.75 WHIP, with a palatable 24 punchouts in 25.1 innings while allowing only four walks and one homer in that span.
• SD 5, PIT 1: Blake Snell wasn't as sharp as he's been the last several weeks, but he managed to post his 11th quality start of the season despite fanning just four with five walks in six stanzas. Manny Machado homered early, then Juan Soto hit a solo shot in the seventh, doubling the Padres lead to 3-1... Angel Perdomo plunked Machado in the back with a 98-mph fastball with the next pitch. After consulting, the umpires ejected Perdomo as well as Pirates skipper Derek Shelton. Warnings were then issued, with no further incident... Soto is batting only .214 in July, but he's walked 19 times for a .374 OBP. He doesn't have a steal, but six homers, 14 runs and 19 RBI this month are all excellent.
• SF 2, OAK 1: It was a textbook win for the Giants, with starter Alex Cobb holding the Athletics scoreless over six stanzas, followed by a two-inning bridge from Tyler Rogers and then sealed with Camilo Doval's league-leading 31st save... San Francisco managed only one unearned run off Ken Waldichuk, who served as the Athletics' primary pitcher. Waldichuk has been struggling but fanned six with just two free passes in 4.2 innings...Ramon Laureano returned for Oakland, but he fanned in his only at-bat as a pinch-hitter.
• LAD 8, TOR 7 (F/10): Hopefully Dodgers fans stayed until the end, as the club was down 4-3 heading into the ninth, but after the Blue Jays put up a three-spot in the top of the ninth, the Dodgers scored four runs to force bonus baseball. Brusdar Graterol retired Toronto in order in the top of the 10th, and then James Outman sent the fans home happy with a walkoff double, scoring Zombie Chris Taylor... Alejandro Kirk may be snapping out of his malaise. With his double in four at bats, Kirk is now slashing .500/.571/.722 over the past week. Many have no doubt benched, if not dropped, the backstop. He's now worthy of active roster consideration.