Top MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, October 7
Previous article 2-2 ( -0.15 units)
Season 146-153-2 (-11.66 units)
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Key MLB Betting Trends and Matchups Analysis
Before locking in your MLB bets Tuesday, be sure to check out these key betting numbers.
Betting playoff baseball is a completely different animal as you have the best pitching, hitting, bullpens, etc. going against each other. Rotations are no longer lined up like they were in the last round, so we are seeing larger moneylines and totals.
In the divisional round, the home field does get more balanced unlike the wild-card round. There are some days off, but with five games, the starting pitching depth does give teams an advantage more in this round.
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Blue Jays vs Yankees Best Bets and Predictions
There are many that buy into the adage of a "must-win" game, but I am not one of them. I have talked about it all season where there is a massive "Yankee tax" on their games (same with the Dodgers), and I have this line more in the -130 range instead of -160 which is where it is at now.
The Blue Jays have outscored the Yankees in the first two games of this series 23-8. LHP Carlos Rodon has faced the Blue Jays twice this season in Toronto for a combined 10 innings with eight strikeouts, but also eight walks. The free passes allowed is a scary number, and if he gets into trouble early there will be a quick hook despite how bad the Yankees' bullpen is.
Jays RHP Shane Bieber has allowed six home runs in his last four starts, and I do see the Yankees offense waking up in Game 3.
Rodon against Bieber is about an even pitching matchup for me, and both lineups on paper are about even, but the bullpen edge is in favor of the Jays, and I think that is where this game is won. This will not be another Jays' blowout, and it should be much closer with the Yankees on the verge of elimination. But, I do think both teams get to at least 4 runs in this game which also puts me on the Over.
Best Bets:
- Blue Jays ML for 1 unit (+135 at BetRivers Sportsbook)
- Jays/Yankees OVER 7.5 runs for 1 unit (-115 at BetMGM)
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Mariners vs Tigers Best Bets and Predictions
I have lived on the Mariners at home, while fading them on the road, but the Tigers are just 2-11 in their last 13 home games. The starting pitching matchup of RHP Logan Gilbert against RHP Jack Flaherty favors the Mariners, but the splits of both pitchers need to be considered.
Gilbert's splits are not to be ignored, as he was dominant at home with a 2.24 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 13.3 K/9 against a 4.74 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 10.3 K/9. The risk on Gilbert is he is prone to giving up the long ball. Flaherty has been much better at home on the season, but the more recent data shows he has been pitching better.
I have not had a good read on this series, and laying -135 was a bit outside my comfort zone, so I will just look at another Over, as I can see both pitchers giving up some runs.
Keep an eye on the weather in this game, as rain is being forecast, and we could see a delay and the starting pitchers impacted. Winds will also be blowing out to right-center field at 12-14 MPH when the game does go off.
Best Bet:
- Mariners/Tigers OVER 7.5 runs for 1 unit (+100 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Tuesday's MLB Best Bets
- Blue Jays ML for 1 unit (+135 at BetRivers Sportsbook)
- Jays/Yankees OVER 7.5 runs for 1 unit (-115 at BetMGM)
- Mariners/Tigers OVER 7.5 runs for 1 unit (+100 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
