Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Sad, Not-So-Fun Ball

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Updated on June 17, 2024 2:58AM EST

Back in 2019, friend and colleague Jeff Erickson coined the term, "Happy Fun Ball." Fast forward five seasons and we're dealing with the opposite. The flight of the ball this season is dampened. Not only are there fewer homers, but more fly balls staying in the yard are finding pockets of leather. Fewer runs are being scored by way of the home run.

Some treat ground-ball rate as a skill. I see it as a trait. More grounders isn't always better. The advantage of ground balls is fewer homers and more double plays. The downside is the BABIP on grounders is higher than that on fly balls.

The disadvantage of fly balls is more homers, but that's being lessened this season. Furthermore, the already-low fly-ball BABIP is even lower.

Striking hitters out is clearly always a good thing. Issuing free passes is always dangerous. This season, with less damage done via the long ball, teams need to string together at bats. Pitchers that don't help their cause via walks stand to benefit.

The takeaway is in today's landscape, less dominant pitchers with excellent control are more trustworthy than recent seasons. Examples are Seth Lugo, Jake Irvin, Tanner Houck, Logan Webb, Jose Berrios and Bailey Falter.

The disadvantage of fly balls is more homers, but that's being lessened this season. Furthermore, the already-low fly-ball BABIP is even lower.

On Thursday, June 20, the St. Louis Cardinals will face the San Francisco Giants and lined up to pitch at Rickwood Field in Birmingham, Alabama. The venue is considered to be the oldest pro park in the USA. It was the home of the Birmingham Black Barons of the Negro leagues. The dimensions are vague, but it appears the park with play in a neutral manner.

As always, these rankings are preliminary, based on the current information on the Probable Pitchers page. Please send rotation questions in that direction. I'm always happy to address rankings queries below.

UPDATED: Monday June 17 2:55 AM ET

Week of June 17 - June 23

Mixed

Rank	Pitcher	TM	OPP	Comments	MIX12	MIX15
1	Sonny Gray	STL	@MIA, SF	Sporting a 33.0% K% and 25.7% K-BB%, both career highs.
2	Max Fried	ATL	DET, @NYY
3	Tyler Glasnow	LAD	LAA
4	Paul Skenes	PIT	CIN, TB	Extra rest spared him from Coors and gave him this two-step.
5	Pablo Lopez	MIN	TB, @OAK	3.45 xFIP says be patient. Great pair to get back on track.
6	Framber Valdez	HOU	@CWS, BAL
7	Bryce Miller	SEA	@CLE, @MIA
8	Cole Ragans	KC	@OAK
9	Nick Pivetta	BOS	@TOR, @CIN
10	Logan Webb	SF	@CHC, @STL
11	Zack Wheeler	PHI	ARI
12	Tanner Houck	BOS	@TOR
13	Tarik Skubal	DET	@ATL
14	Joe Ryan	MIN	TB
15	Garrett Crochet	CWS	HOU
16	Logan Gilbert	SEA	@MIA
17	Seth Lugo	KC	@OAK	Perfect example of benefiting from the landscape
18	Michael King	SD	@PHI, MIL
19	Jack Flaherty	DET	CWS
20	Nick Lodolo	CIN	@PIT
21	Corbin Burnes	BAL	@HOU
22	Chris Sale	ATL	@NYY
23	George Kirby	SEA	@MIA
24	Luis Castillo	SEA	@CLE
25	Reynaldo Lopez	ATL	DET
26	Bailey Ober	MIN	@OAK
27	Luis Gil	NYY	BAL	Dominance continues to mitigate wildness
28	Gerrit Cole	NYY	BAL	Welcome back
29	Ranger Suarez	PHI	SD
30	Bryan Woo	SEA	@CLE	Tentative, experiencing forearm issues
31	Freddy Peralta	MIL	@LAA
32	Dylan Cease	SD	MIL
33	Tanner Bibee	CLE	SEA
34	Hunter Greene	CIN	@PIT
35	Kutter Crawford	BOS	@CIN
36	Zac Gallen	ARI	@PHI
37	Braxton Garrett	MIA	STL, SEA
38	Grayson Rodriguez	BAL	@HOU
39	Mitch Keller	PIT	CIN
40	Jesus Luzardo	MIA	SEA	Ugly 7.88 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over last 3 GS with just 10 K in 16 IP
41	Triston McKenzie	CLE	SEA, TOR
42	Justin Steele	CHC	SF
43	Zach Eflin	TB	@PIT
44	Ronel Blanco	HOU	BAL
45	Kevin Gausman	TOR	BOS
46	Nathan Eovaldi	TEX	KC
47	Jordan Hicks	SF	@CHC, @STL
48	Ryan Pepiot	TB	@PIT
49	Aaron Nola	PHI	SD
50	Yusei Kikuchi	TOR	BOS, @CLE
51	Erick Fedde	CWS	@DET
52	Shota Imanaga	CHC	NYM
53	Jake Irvin	WAS	ARI, @COL
54	Jose Berrios	TOR	@CLE
55	Nestor Cortes	NYY	BAL, ATL
56	Carlos Rodon	NYY	ATL
57	Drew Thorpe	CWS	@DET		0%	7%
58	Jon Gray	TEX	NYM
59	Miles Mikolas	STL	SF		25%
60	Justin Verlander	HOU	@CWS
61	Hunter Brown	HOU	@CWS	1.42 ERA, .89 WHIP with 23K over last 19 IP
62	Jared Jones	PIT	TB
63	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	@WAS
64	Javier Assad	CHC	SF, NYM
65	Bobby Miller	LAD	@COL
66	Simeon Woods Richardson	MIN	TB
67	Aaron Civale	TB	@MIN, @PIT
68	Max Scherzer	TEX	KC
69	Michael Lorenzen	TEX	NYM		47%
70	David Peterson	NYM	@TEX, @CHC		43%
71	Andrew Abbott	CIN	BOS
72	Kyle Gibson	STL	@MIA		33%
73	Michael Wacha	KC	@TEX		29%
74	Hogan Harris	OAK	KC, MIN		0%	25%
75	Cristopher Sanchez	PHI	SD, ARI
76	Mix 12 Reliever
77	Yu Darvish	SD	MIL
78	Kenta Maeda	DET	CWS		10%
79	Ben Lively	CLE	TOR
80	Matt Waldron	SD	@PHI
81	Marcus Stroman	NYY	ATL
82	Alec Marsh	KC	@OAK, @TEX
83	Mix 15 Reliever
84	Taj Bradley	TB	@MIN
85	Tyler Anderson	LAA	MIL
86	Chris Paddack	MIN	@OAK
87	Jose Soriano	LAA	MIL
88	Reese Olson	DET	@ATL, CWS
89	Dane Dunning	TEX	KC
90	Keaton Winn	SF	@STL		7%
91	Chris Bassitt	TOR	BOS
92	Bailey Falter	PIT	CIN		12%
93	Charlie Morton	ATL	@NYY
94	Lance Lynn	STL	@MIA
95	Huascar Brazoban	MIA	STL		0%	0%
96	Landon Knack	LAD	LAA		0%	7%
97	Brady Singer	KC	@TEX
98	Jameson Taillon	CHC	NYM
99	Sean Manaea	NYM	@TEX
100	Cooper Criswell	BOS	@CIN		24%
101	Luis Severino	NYM	@TEX
102	Mitch Spence	OAK	KC		0%	32%
103	Logan Allen	CLE	SEA		0%	0%
104	Trevor Rogers	MIA	SEA		4%	28%
105	MacKenzie Gore	WAS	ARI
106	Tylor Megill	NYM	@CHC
107	Jose Quintana	NYM	@CHC		8%	16%
108	Andrew Heaney	TEX	NYM		16%
109	Griffin Canning	LAA	MIL		6%
110	Brayan Bello	BOS	@TOR
111	Spencer Schwellenbach	ATL	DET		22%
112	Taijuan Walker	PHI	ARI		4%	47%
113	Luis Ortiz	PIT	TB		0%	7%
114	Spencer Howard	SF	@CHC		0%	14%
115	JP Sears	OAK	MIN
116	Cal Quantrill	COL	LAD, WAS		5%
117	Colin Rea	MIL	@SD		10%
118	Tobias Myers	MIL	@LAA, @SD		3%
119	Walker Buehler	LAD	@COL
120	Frankie Montas	CIN	BOS
121	Cole Irvin	BAL	@NYY
122	Albert Suarez	BAL	@NYY, @HOU		43%
123	Gavin Stone	LAD	@COL
124	Mitchell Parker	WAS	@COL
125	Jakob Junis	MIL	@SD		0%	5%
126	Carlos Rodriguez	MIL	@LAA		0%	0%
127	Jordan Montgomery	ARI	@PHI
128	Chase Silseth	LAA	@LAD		4%	49%
129	Yariel Rodriguez	TOR	@CLE		5%	9%
130	Zack Littell	TB	@MIN
131	Spencer Arrighetti	HOU	BAL
132	Cade Povich	BAL	@NYY		22%
133	Casey Mize	DET	@ATL		22%
134	DJ Herz	WAS	@COL		0%	4%
135	Roddery Munoz	MIA	STL		0%	0%
136	Luis Medina	OAK	KC		2%	18%
137	Randy Vasquez	SD	@PHI, MIL		1%	47%
138	Jonathan Cannon	CWS	HOU, @DET		0%	2%
139	Carson Spiers	CIN	@PIT, BOS		0%	2%
140	Andre Pallante	STL	SF		0%	5%
141	Kyle Hendricks	CHC	SF		0%	0%
142	Bryse Wilson	MIL	@SD		7%	35%
143	Joey Estes	OAK	MIN		26%
144	Carlos Carrasco	CLE	TOR		0%	2%
145	Dakota Hudson	COL	WAS		0%	0%
146	Ryne Nelson	ARI	@WAS		2%
147	Patrick Sandoval	LAA	@LAD		22%
148	James Paxton	LAD	@COL
149	Slade Cecconi	ARI	@WAS, @PHI		1%	26%
150	Ryan Feltner	COL	LAD		0%	5%
151	Kyle Freeland	COL	WAS		0%	0%
152	Chris Flexen	CWS	HOU		0%	2%
153	Austin Gomber	COL	LAD		7%	21%
154	Patrick Corbin	WAS	ARI		0%	4%
155	Ty Blach	COL	LAD		0%	2%

American League

Rank	Pitcher	TM	OPP	Comment
1	Pablo Lopez	MIN	TB, @OAK	3.45 xFIP says be patient. Great pair to get back on track.
2	Framber Valdez	HOU	@CWS, BAL
3	Bryce Miller	SEA	@CLE, @MIA
4	Cole Ragans	KC	@OAK
5	Nick Pivetta	BOS	@TOR, @CIN
6	Tanner Houck	BOS	@TOR
7	Tarik Skubal	DET	@ATL
8	Joe Ryan	MIN	TB
9	Garrett Crochet	CWS	HOU
10	Logan Gilbert	SEA	@MIA
11	Seth Lugo	KC	@OAK	Perfect example of benefiting from the landscape
12	Jack Flaherty	DET	CWS
13	Corbin Burnes	BAL	@HOU
14	George Kirby	SEA	@MIA
15	Luis Castillo	SEA	@CLE
16	Bailey Ober	MIN	@OAK
17	Luis Gil	NYY	BAL	Dominance continues to mitigate wildness
18	Gerrit Cole	NYY	BAL	Welcome back
19	Bryan Woo	SEA	@CLE	Tentative, experiencing forearm issues
20	Tanner Bibee	CLE	SEA
21	Kutter Crawford	BOS	@CIN
22	Grayson Rodriguez	BAL	@HOU
23	Triston McKenzie	CLE	SEA, TOR
24	Zach Eflin	TB	@PIT
25	Ronel Blanco	HOU	BAL
26	Kevin Gausman	TOR	BOS
27	Nathan Eovaldi	TEX	KC
28	Ryan Pepiot	TB	@PIT
29	Yusei Kikuchi	TOR	BOS, @CLE
30	Erick Fedde	CWS	@DET
31	Jose Berrios	TOR	@CLE
32	Nestor Cortes	NYY	BAL, ATL
33	Carlos Rodon	NYY	ATL
34	Drew Thorpe	CWS	@DET
35	Jon Gray	TEX	NYM
36	Justin Verlander	HOU	@CWS
37	Hunter Brown	HOU	@CWS	1.42 ERA, .89 WHIP with 23K over last 19 IP
38	Simeon Woods Richardson	MIN	TB
39	Aaron Civale	TB	@MIN, @PIT
40	Max Scherzer	TEX	KC
41	Michael Lorenzen	TEX	NYM
42	Michael Wacha	KC	@TEX
43	Hogan Harris	OAK	KC, MIN
44	Kenta Maeda	DET	CWS
45	Ben Lively	CLE	TOR
46	Marcus Stroman	NYY	ATL
47	Alec Marsh	KC	@OAK, @TEX
48	Taj Bradley	TB	@MIN
49	Tyler Anderson	LAA	MIL
50	Chris Paddack	MIN	@OAK
51	Jose Soriano	LAA	MIL
52	Reese Olson	DET	@ATL, CWS
53	Dane Dunning	TEX	KC
54	Chris Bassitt	TOR	BOS
55	Brady Singer	KC	@TEX
56	AL Reliever
57	Cooper Criswell	BOS	@CIN
58	Mitch Spence	OAK	KC
59	Logan Allen	CLE	SEA
60	Andrew Heaney	TEX	NYM
61	Griffin Canning	LAA	MIL
62	Brayan Bello	BOS	@TOR
63	JP Sears	OAK	MIN
64	Cole Irvin	BAL	@NYY
65	Albert Suarez	BAL	@NYY, @HOU
66	Chase Silseth	LAA	@LAD
67	Yariel Rodriguez	TOR	@CLE
68	Zack Littell	TB	@MIN
69	Spencer Arrighetti	HOU	BAL
70	Cade Povich	BAL	@NYY
71	Casey Mize	DET	@ATL
72	Luis Medina	OAK	KC
73	Jonathan Cannon	CWS	HOU, @DET
74	Joey Estes	OAK	MIN
75	Carlos Carrasco	CLE	TOR
76	Patrick Sandoval	LAA	@LAD
77	Chris Flexen	CWS	HOU

National League

Rank	Pitcher	TM	OPP	Comment
1	Sonny Gray	STL	@MIA, SF	Sporting a 33.0% K% and 25.7% K-BB%, both career highs.
2	Max Fried	ATL	DET, @NYY
3	Tyler Glasnow	LAD	LAA
4	Paul Skenes	PIT	CIN, TB	Extra rest spared him from Coors and gave him this two-step.
5	Logan Webb	SF	@CHC, @STL
6	Zack Wheeler	PHI	ARI
7	Michael King	SD	@PHI, MIL
8	Nick Lodolo	CIN	@PIT
9	Chris Sale	ATL	@NYY
10	Reynaldo Lopez	ATL	DET
11	Ranger Suarez	PHI	SD
12	Freddy Peralta	MIL	@LAA
13	Dylan Cease	SD	MIL
14	Hunter Greene	CIN	@PIT
15	Zac Gallen	ARI	@PHI
16	Braxton Garrett	MIA	STL, SEA
17	Mitch Keller	PIT	CIN
18	Jesus Luzardo	MIA	SEA	Ugly 7.88 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over last 3 GS with just 10 K in 16 IP
19	Justin Steele	CHC	SF
20	Jordan Hicks	SF	@CHC, @STL
21	Aaron Nola	PHI	SD
22	Shota Imanaga	CHC	NYM
23	Jake Irvin	WAS	ARI, @COL
24	Miles Mikolas	STL	SF
25	Jared Jones	PIT	TB
26	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	@WAS
27	Javier Assad	CHC	SF, NYM
28	Bobby Miller	LAD	@COL
29	David Peterson	NYM	@TEX, @CHC
30	Andrew Abbott	CIN	BOS
31	Kyle Gibson	STL	@MIA
32	Cristopher Sanchez	PHI	SD, ARI
33	Yu Darvish	SD	MIL
34	Matt Waldron	SD	@PHI
35	Keaton Winn	SF	@STL
36	Bailey Falter	PIT	CIN
37	Charlie Morton	ATL	@NYY
38	Lance Lynn	STL	@MIA
39	Huascar Brazoban	MIA	STL
40	Landon Knack	LAD	LAA
41	Jameson Taillon	CHC	NYM
42	Sean Manaea	NYM	@TEX
43	NL Reliever
44	Luis Severino	NYM	@TEX
45	Trevor Rogers	MIA	SEA
46	MacKenzie Gore	WAS	ARI
47	Tylor Megill	NYM	@CHC
48	Jose Quintana	NYM	@CHC
49	Spencer Schwellenbach	ATL	DET
50	Taijuan Walker	PHI	ARI
51	Luis Ortiz	PIT	TB
52	Spencer Howard	SF	@CHC
53	Cal Quantrill	COL	LAD, WAS
54	Colin Rea	MIL	@SD
55	Tobias Myers	MIL	@LAA, @SD
56	Walker Buehler	LAD	@COL
57	Frankie Montas	CIN	BOS
58	Gavin Stone	LAD	@COL
59	Mitchell Parker	WAS	@COL
60	Jakob Junis	MIL	@SD
61	Carlos Rodriguez	MIL	@LAA
62	Jordan Montgomery	ARI	@PHI
63	DJ Herz	WAS	@COL
64	Roddery Munoz	MIA	STL
65	Randy Vasquez	SD	@PHI, MIL
66	Carson Spiers	CIN	@PIT, BOS
67	Andre Pallante	STL	SF
68	Kyle Hendricks	CHC	SF
69	Bryse Wilson	MIL	@SD
70	Dakota Hudson	COL	WAS
71	Ryne Nelson	ARI	@WAS
72	James Paxton	LAD	@COL
73	Slade Cecconi	ARI	@WAS, @PHI
74	Ryan Feltner	COL	LAD
75	Kyle Freeland	COL	WAS
76	Austin Gomber	COL	LAD
77	Patrick Corbin	WAS	ARI
78	Ty Blach	COL	LAD