This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous: 0-4, -4.00 RWBucks
Season: 54-58-5, -7.12 RWBucks
After a rough Wednesday night, I'll look to bounce back Thursday with some bets on favorites and lower scoring in a pair of afternoon games.
Mariners at Rangers, 2:05 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Chris Flexen vs. Spencer Howard
The Pick: Mariners -150 for 1 RWBuck
Secondary Pick: Under 4.5 runs first 5 innings for 1 RWBuck
Flexen has bedeviled the Rangers the last two times he's faced them (0.69 ERA across 13 innings), and that was when Texas still had Joey Gallo in the fold. The veteran right-hander is in a good spot again Thursday, considering the Rangers' .211/.271/.372 batting line, -7.5 wRAA and .280 wOBA against visiting righties in the second half. For his part, Howard does a very good job of keeping the ball in the park, which should help the score remain somewhat tempered while he's in the game.
Phillies at Diamondbacks, 3:40 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Zack Wheeler vs. Madison Bumgarner
The Pick: Phillies -190 for 1 RWBuck
Secondary Pick: Under 4 runs first 5 innings (+104) for 1 RWBuck
Wheeler is currently the odds-on favorite for the NL Cy Young thanks to a stellar body of work that includes a 2.56 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 10.4 K/9 and 0.7 HR/9. He's been at his best limiting the long ball on the road (0.5 HR/9) and has held current Arizona bats to a collective .187/.244/.335 batting line in 56 career encounters. Bumgarner has been excellent lately himself with a 2.09 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in his last six starts, leading me to put some faith in a lower score early.
