This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
UTA (-4.5) vs. BOS, O/U: 228
ATL (-9.5) vs. HOU, O/U: 224.5
CLE vs. MIA (-10.5), O/U: 212.5
NY vs. PHI (-7), O/U: 216
OKC vs. CHI (-5.5), O/U: 224
NO vs. POR (-1.5), O/U: 240.5
MIN vs. LAL (-9), O/U: 225
Tuesday's DraftKings NBA slate tips off at 7:30 p.m. EST and includes seven games. Joel Embiid (knee) is out while Bam Adebayo (knee) and CJ McCollum (foot) are expected to return. The Rockets and Thunder are dealing with multiple absences and will be significantly short-handed. Both teams will be a source of some popular value plays tonight. As opposed to most nights when there are plenty of appealing spend-up options, tonight is a chance to be more creative as none of the studs stand out as smash plays.
The NO-POR matchup will likely be a popular target and rightfully so as it features a 240.5 total, the highest of the night by 12.5 points. McCollum is expected to make his long-awaited return and that could lessen the popularity of the slate's most expensive player, Damian Lillard. The Pelicans have appealing run-back options in Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram, both of whom are slightly more affordable than they've been in recent weeks. The OKC-CHI matchup is another good target. The Thunder are significantly shorthanded and have multiple value options that are likely to be chalky while Zach LaVine has seen his salary drop to its lowest point in 10 games for a prime matchup against a depleted defense.
Injuries to Monitor
Joel Embiid (knee): OUT
Embiid is expected to miss roughly two weeks after an MRI revealed no structural damage in his knee. Tony Bradley ($3,700) started at center last time out while Dwight Howard ($6,000) saw extended run off the bench.
Bam Adebayo (knee): PROBABLE
Adebayo hasn't played since Mar. 2 but is expected to return tonight. Keep an eye out for news as could be on some type of minutes limit.
John Wall (knee): OUT
Wall will miss a fourth consecutive game tonight. Kevin Porter ($7,000) and Sterling Brown ($4,800) should continue to see extra run in his absence.
Danuel House (knee): QUESTIONABLE
House has missed four consecutive games with a bruised knee and is listed as questionable for tonight. David Nwaba (wrist) has already been ruled out and the Rockets are going to be short-handed again regardless of whether House plays or not. Porter, Kenyon Martin ($5,300) and Brown should continue to have expanded roles.
Clint Capela (foot): QUESTIONABLE
Capela missed Sunday's game as he continues to deal with a lingering heel injury and is listed as questionable for tonight. Danilo Gallinari ($5,900) started in his place while Nathan Knight ($3,000) saw increased run off the bench.
Al Horford (rest): OUT
Horford will be rested for a second consecutive game. Moses Brown ($3,500) started at center last time out while Isaiah Roby ($5,300) played 33 minutes off the bench.
Darius Bazley (shoulder): OUT
Bazley will miss a fourth consecutive game tonight due to bruised shoulder. Roby and Aleksej Pokusevski ($4,400) should continue to have expanded roles in his absence.
Luguentz Dort (toe): QUESTIONABLE
Dort missed Sunday's game with a toe injury and is listed as questionable for tonight. Justin Jackson ($3,200) got the start at small forward last time out.
Theo Maledon (ankle): QUESTIONABLE
Maledon missed Sunday's game with a sprained ankle and is listed as questionable for tonight. Ty Jerome ($4,200) started at point guard in his absence.
Derrick Rose (COVID-19) and Elfrid Payton (hamstring): QUESTIONABLE
Rose and Payton are both listed as questionable after missing yesterday's game. Immanuel Quickley ($5,800), Reggie Bullock ($3,800) and Frank Ntilikina ($3,000) have seen expanded roles in their absence.
Elite Players
Guard:
Damian Lillard ($10,800)
Lillard is the most expensive player on the slate tonight. He's likely to go somewhat overlooked as CJ McCollum is expected to make his long-awaited return. The POR-NO matchup features the highest total of the night and will likely be a popular game to target. If Lillard is going to be less popular than the other spend-up options then he would be my preferred choice at point guard.
Trae Young ($10,200) has seen his salary hit a season high for tonight's matchup against the depleted Rockets but it doesn't seem warranted as he's topped 50 DK points just twice in his last seven games. I'd prefer to save some salary and go to Ben Simmons ($9,000) as the Sixers will be without Joel Embiid, or Zach LaVine ($9,000) against a depleted Thunder defense.
Forward:
LeBron James ($10,500)
James is coming off a triple-double last night while playing only 30 minutes so he should be good to go for the second game of a back-to-back tonight. He's been inconsistent in the absence of Anthony Davis and if he's going to be especially popular then I don't mind paying down for someone like Simmons in this spot either. Jimmy Butler ($9,800) is another player who has seen his salary hit a season-high after putting up at least 50 DK points in six consecutive games. The return of Bam Adebayo will likely dampen his usage and decrease his popularity.
Center:
Julius Randle ($9,900)
Randle has been on a tear as he's scored at least 60 DK points in three of the last four games. He's consistently seeing upwards of 40 minutes per game and his usage has been slightly higher recently as the Knicks have been dealing with multiple injures at guard. Randle is my preferred spend-up option at center and tonight's matchup against the Sixers is more appealing with Embiid out injured.
Expected Chalk
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder are dealing with multiple injuries and will likely be significantly shorthanded for tonight's matchup against the Bulls. Al Horford (rest) has been ruled out and Moses Brown ($3,500) is expected to get another start at center. Brown will be a popular play with such an affordable salary.
Darius Bazley (shoulder) will be out again and Aleksej Pokusevski ($4,800) will likely get another start at power forward. He's coming off 48 DK points while playing 39 minutes last time out and will be a popular value option tonight.
Theo Maledon (ankle) missed Sunday's game and is listed as questionable. Ty Jerome ($4,200) put up 30.5 DK points while playing 30 minutes in his first start at point guard and would be a popular value play if Maledon were to miss again.
Value Picks
Tobias Harris ($8,500)
Harris is coming off 50.75 DK points in just 28 minutes last time out. He's a different player without Joel Embiid on the floor and should continue to see increased usage in his absence going forward.
Victor Oladipo ($8,300)
Oladipo will see all the usage he can handle for the short-handed Rockets as John Wall and Eric Gordon are out. He's scored at least 40 DK points in three consecutive games while shooting poorly from the field.
Kevin Porter ($7,000)
Porter has seen a significant increase in salary but he's scored at least 42 DK points in two of his three games for the depleted Rockets. He should continue to see big minutes and usage with John Wall, Eric Gordon and Christian Wood all ruled out.
Montrezl Harrell ($6,200) and Kyle Kuzma ($6,000)
The Lakers are still thin in the frontcourt as Anthony Davis and Marc Gasol remain out. Both Harrell and Kuzma have scored at least 34 DK points in three consecutive games.
Kenyon Martin ($5,300)
Martin has played 30 minutes in three consecutive games while averaging over a fantasy point per minute in that span. He should see plenty of run again tonight for the depleted Rockets.
