This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Wednesdays are traditionally extremely busy nights in the NBA, and this week certainly doesn't disappoint. There are 11 games on the docket overall, and major injuries are few and far between, all things considered. Additionally, we have no shortage of close games projected by the oddsmakers, which always is a welcome sight for DFS purposes.
Slate Overview
Portland Trail Blazers at Cleveland Cavaliers (O/U: 220.0 points)
Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic (O/U: 215.5 points)
New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers (O/U: 218.0 points)
Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards (O/U: 214.5 points)
Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers (O/U: 217.0 points)
Atlanta Hawks at Brooklyn Nets (O/U: 216.5 points)
Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies (O/U: 213.0 points)
Los Angeles Clippers at Minnesota Timberwolves (O/U: 215.5 points)
Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs (O/U: 216.0 points)
Charlotte Hornets at Golden State Warriors (O/U: 226.0 points)
New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings (O/U: 218.0 points)
Scoring is considerably down across the league early this season with new foul-calling protocol leading to a reduction in free throws, but by current standards, Wednesday's slate has some fairly robust projected totals. Additionally, as alluded to earlier, there are plenty of close games expected – eight of the 11 games have spreads of five points or less as of early Wednesday morning, with five of those checking in with lines of two points or fewer.
As we've already seen early this season, any game can turn into a competitive affair no matter how disparate the records and talent levels are between teams. The good news regarding Wednesday's slate is that, at first glance, we don't even have to take many leaps of faith in that regard. Based on the matchups, every game has a plausible chance of being competitive down to the wire, as even the lowly Magic are facing a Celtics team that's stumbled out of the gates at 2-5 and tends to play down to the level of opponents at times.
Moreover, the sparse number of potential big-name absences should also up the chances of teams keeping things competitive. In terms of games where investing in some high-salaried players might be particularly worthwhile due to the likelihood of a wire-to-wire affair, the Bulls-76ers, Hawks-Nets and Hornets-Warriors contests stand out.
Injury Situations to Monitor
NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate.
Trae Young, ATL (knee)/Status: PROBABLE
Young apparently sustained his injury in Monday's win over the Wizards but still logged 36 minutes and is expected to play without restrictions Wednesday.
Tobias Harris, PHI (COVID-19 protocols)/Status: OUT
In Harris' expected ongoing absence Wednesday and that of Danny Green (hamstring) as well, the usage of the remaining members of the starting five, especially Joel Embiid, should bump up significantly, while Furkan Korkmaz should remain on the first unit.
Malcolm Brogdon, IND (hamstring)/Status: QUESTIONABLE
Although he officially carries a questionable tag, Brogdon states that he feels good and expects to play Wednesday. If he does suit up and start, T.J. McConnell will move back to the bench.
Brandon Ingram, NOP (hip)/Status: QUESTIONABLE
If Ingram misses a third straight game, the likes of Devonte' Graham, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Jonas Valanciunas should see bumps in usage, while Josh Hart should remain in the starting lineup at small forward.
Kristaps Porzingis, DAL (back)/Status: QUESTIONABLE
If Porzingis sits out again Wednesday, Dorian Finney-Smith could shift over to power forward, which could open up a start at small forward for Reggie Bullock.
D'Angelo Russell, MIN (ankle)/ Status: OUT
With Russell out Wednesday, Patrick Beverley, who's questionable with a calf injury in his own right, will draw the start at point guard if he can go, while the usage of the remaining members of Minnesota's starting five will see a notable boost.
John Collins, ATL (foot)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
If Collins is unable to suit up Wednesday, Danilo Gallinari would be in line to draw the start at power forward.
Other notable injuries:
Ben Simmons, PHI (personal)/Status: OUT
Kyrie Irving, BRO (personal)/Status: OUT
Scottie Barnes, TOR (thumb)/Status: OUT
Dillon Brooks, MEM (hand)/Status: OUT
Kevin Love, CLE (COVID-19 protocols)/Status: OUT
Bogdan Bogdanovic, ATL (back)/Status: PROBABLE
Marcus Morris, LAC (knee)/Status: OUT
Nerlens Noel, NYK (knee)/Status: QUESTIONABLE
Doug McDermott, SAN (knee)/Status: QUESTIONABLE
Nicolas Claxton, BRO (illness)/Status: OUT
Danny Green, PHI (hamstring)/Status: OUT
Maxi Kleber, DAL (back)/Status: OUT
Elite Players
We have nine players with five-figure salaries on Wednesday's slate – Nikola Jokic ($11,400), Stephen Curry ($11,100), Paul George ($10,900), Kevin Durant ($10,800), Luka Doncic ($10,700), Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,600), Joel Embiid ($10,300), James Harden ($10,200) and Domantas Sabonis ($10,100).
Jokic is playing up to his usual standards this season, already averaging 54.5 DK points per contest. He also already owns a tally of 49.8 DK points against Memphis this season and continues to boast even more usage than usual in the ongoing absence of Jamal Murray (knee).
Curry is averaging 53.6 DK points per contest and that's while still shooting just 42.2 percent, including (for him) a below-average 38.8 percent from distance. He's averaging 55.5 DK points per his three home contests thus far and is facing a Hornets team allowing the second-most points per game (115.0).
George figures to continue carrying the weight of the Clippers on his shoulders while Kawhi Leonard (knee) remains sidelined. He boasts a 33.5 percent usage rate and is averaging 55.3 DK points per 36 minutes thus far this season. George has also been at his best in his two away games thus far, putting up 59.1 DK points across his first pair of road tilts while shooting 57.4 percent, including 55.5 percent from three-point range.
Much like George, Durant is carrying a heavy load for the Nets in the ongoing absence of Kyrie Irving and is averaging 50.6 DK points per contest. His efficiency is also off the charts (58.3 percent shooting), but he's notably taken just 10 and 13 shot attempts the last two games.
Doncic is still particularly scuffling with his long-range shot (25.5 percent shooting from three-point range) and is playing more off the ball under new head coach Jason Kidd, but he naturally carries massive upside and is averaging 46.9 DK points per contest. It's also worth noting he enjoyed his best shooting day of the season against the same Spurs squad he'll face Wednesday, draining 57.9 percent of his shots in a win on Thursday.
Towns is putting up 48.8 DK points per game and just trampled the Magic for 58.5 on Monday while draining four of eight three-point attempts in the process. Towns is notably averaging 50.1 DK points per contest at home and is shooting 50.0 percent from three-point range on the season (38 attempts).
Embiid should have an even larger role than usual with both Danny Green (hamstring) and Tobias Harris (COVID-19 protocols) out of action Wednesday. The big man has been a bit inconsistent of late, however, scoring under 30 DK points in two of his last three games. However, he will be very rested Wednesday, as he last played Saturday since he sat out Monday's game against the Blazers for load management.
Harden still doesn't quite look himself and is taking fewer shots than last season, but some improved efficiency from the floor the last two games has helped lead to tallies of 56.5 and 52.5 DK points in those contests, his two highest totals of the season.
Sabonis has been outstanding the last two games with totals of 49.5 and 52.3 DK points, with the big man hitting the double-double bonus in each. He's also been at his best at home (48.6 DK points per game), but the matchup against the stingy Knicks and Malcolm Brogdon's expected return from a three-game absence due to a hamstring injury Wednesday could dampen his overall upside some.
Expected Chalk
In addition to the players just mentioned in the prior section, other likely chalk plays include:
Jayson Tatum, BOS ($9,900)
Despite the Celtics' struggles, Tatum's average of 45.5 DK points, soft matchup against the Magic and 32.8 percent usage rate should keep him very popular.
Trae Young, ATL ($9,500)
Assuming Young is suiting up as expected, he should be highly popular in a marquee matchup against the 76ers and facing a depleted Philly squad that won't have Ben Simmons out there to help defend him.
Julius Randle, NYK ($9,400)
The combination of Randle's average of 48.0 DK points per contest and favorable matchup against Domantas Sabonis down low Wednesday should help the Knicks' talented big man remain heavily rostered.
Ja Morant, MEM ($9,300)
Morant has been one of the brightest stars of the early portion of the season and has 43 DK points or more in all but one game, including a haul of 47.3 against the same Nuggets squad he'll face Wednesday.
Jonas Valanciunas, NOP ($8,500)
Valanciunas has eclipsed 50 DK points in each of his last two games, a pair of contests that Brandon Ingram, who's also questionable for Wednesday's game, has missed. The big man has been a force even with Ingram in the lineup and has a highly favorable matchup against the Kings' vulnerable frontcourt defense.
Other likely chalk play: Anthony Edwards, MIN ($8,400)
Key Values
Draymond Green, GSW vs. CHA ($7,100)
I'm loosening the parameters just a bit in terms of salary for what I consider a value play with Green, because his situation Wednesday warrants it. From the perspective of a player with a high probability of returning 5x or more on his salary representing a strong value play, Green fits the bill, as he's checking in with an average of 34.7 DK points for the season and has scored 43 and 42.8 in his last two contests. Additionally, his ability to check off every box on the stat sheet is extremely well corroborated. Finally, his matchup against a Hornets squad that's allowing the second-highest offensive efficiency (33.0 percent) to power forwards, the highest to opposing frontcourts overall (90.0 percent) and the third highest in the paint (65.3 percent), all point toward another potentially fruitful night for Green.
Buddy Hield, SAC vs. NOP ($5,900)
Hield lit up his old Pelicans squad for 33.5 DK points on the strength of a 54.5 percent shooting night the first time he saw New Orleans this season. The talented wing has struggled more with his shot at home over a very small sample of two games, but the Pels rank in the bottom 10 in offensive efficiency allowed to small forwards (23.1 percent) and are also allowing the fifth-highest three-point percentage (38.5) in the league. Hield has already eclipsed 30 DK points on four occasions and has fallen below 24.5 just once, giving him an excellent floor for his salary.
Franz Wagner, ORL vs. BOS ($5,500)
Wagner is coming off having scored a career-high 44.5 DK points against the Timberwolves on Monday night, a contest in which he racked up a career-best 28 points on blistering 55.6 percent shooting. A performance of that caliber on the part of a talented rookie like Wagner who's already picking up plenty of minutes as a starter from Day 1 can certainly be a sign of things to come, as opposed to just an outlier effort. Wagner's salary has only risen $500 despite the stellar numbers, making him an excellent option for cash or tournaments against a Celtics squad that's allowing the fourth-highest offensive efficiency to small forwards (25.9 percent) and has generally been in disarray on defense early. Boston is also allowing a robust 38.2 percent success rate from three-point range on the road thus far, while Wagner is shooting 46.3 percent from behind the arc on a solid 5.1 three-point attempts per contest.
