This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
Thursday marks the first big slate since returning from the 2021 NBA All-Star break. There are 11 games to look forward to with many options at first glance from a betting perspective. The prop bets I mention in this article are the most intriguing to me on this slate. I don't place bets unless I believe they likely cash and have perceived value. Despite a large NBA slate, only a few props have me intrigued. Let's discuss!
Points Props
Just like any other large NBA slate, there is a lot of injury news that has materialized. The Orlando Magic will be heading to Miami without Carmelo Anthony, James Ennis, and possibly Aaron Gordon (questionable). Based on this news, it may seem intriguing to target the over props on the studs who will see a usage bump, but I am interested in the Terence Ross UNDER 19.5 points (-121).
Ross's scoring upside relies a lot on shooting from a far distance (i.e., of his last 34 field goals attempted, 19 of them were three-pointers). Miami allows the 3rd lowest field goal percentage AND 3 point field goal percentage to opposing teams. I think despite a potential usage bump from Ross, it's unlikely he gets hot shooting from the floor based on the Heat defense. This game also has the potential of blowing out (i.e., Heat are 8-point favorites at home), which can mean fewer minutes for the starters.
Like Terence Ross, Paul George is comfortable taking many shots from beyond the arc (i.e., attempted 25 3 pointers in his last 47 field goals tried). The Clippers will be playing the Warriors at home in another game that can potentially blowout (i.e., Clippers are currently 7.0-point favorites). As it pertains to the statistics, the Warriors allow the fifth-lowest opposing field goal percentage and the 2nd lowest opposing 3 point field goal percentage. With George's willingness to attempt many field goals from a distance and the Warriors' solid defense from a statistical perspective, I like the UNDER 25.5 points (-110) for Paul George's points scored.
Assists and Rebounds Props
Staying with the Clippers versus Warriors game, I like the UNDER 10.5 assists (-134) for Draymond Green. An angle I look to capitalize on when betting is recency bias, and that is what I believe we have here. Draymond Green has gone OVER 10.5 assists in four of his past five games. However, he's averaging 8.6 assists per game on the season. He faces the Clippers, who allow 3.5 assists per game to opposing power forwards, 2.6 assists per game to opposing centers, and 7.8 assists per game to opposing point guards. While Green may go over this number again, this matchup and circumstance tell me there's some regression for his assist numbers. There is also the potential this game blows out (i.e., Clippers are currently 7 point favorites at home), which implies less playing time for the starters should it occur.
The Miami Heat will be hosting the Orlando Magic today without their star big man, Bam Adebayo, who averages 9.5 rebounds per game on the season. Kelly Olynyk will have plenty of opportunities to grab rebounds against the Magic, who allow the 18th most rebounds in the league, 12.1 rebounds per game to opposing power forwards, and 9.7 rebounds per game to opposing centers. I like Kelly Olynyk to go OVER 6.5 rebounds (-152) tonight against the Magic with these circumstances.
